Climate Nearing “Point of No Return”

Silvanus

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I'm sorry that you don't know how to read.
I can read well enough to recognise that you're awkwardly shifting away from your original position ("the situation isn't on track to get worse, scientists aren't clear, its all fine") onto one that's much more nebulous ("a few places might get a bit better even if the risk overall increases")

...and using smug little one-liners like the above to unsuccessfully camouflage that shift.
 
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tstorm823

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I can read well enough to recognise that you're awkwardly shifting away from your original position ("the situation isn't on track to get worse, scientists aren't clear, its all fine") onto one that's much more nebulous ("a few places might get a bit better even if the risk overall increases")

...and using smug little one-liners like the above to unsuccessfully camouflage that shift.
Neither of those have been my position at any point.
 

tstorm823

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I can't help but point out that the "climate winners" are mostly places where the terrain likely to experience increased habitability is barely-populated tundra.

In other words, to all intents and purposes, everyone loses: because substantially no-one lives in the places due to improve most. And it's not like the mass population movement (possibly billions) required to exploit these areas, people fleeing areas going downhill, is going to be a problem-free experience. It's most likely going to be a slow if substantial humanitarian, economic, and political trauma.
Climate change is going to take centuries to potentially force serious global migration. People relocate themselves within a generation.
 

Agema

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Climate change is going to take centuries to potentially force serious global migration. People relocate themselves within a generation.
Some estimates say that climate change might drive around a billion people to migrate within our lifetimes. Sure, that might be a high end figure, but even so there is a substantial risk it will still be very large numbers of people. Overwhelmingly this is likely to involve poor people who had almost nothing losing even the little they had.

After that, you just stop to take a look at the rhetoric surrounding migrants in the USA and Europe currently, such as that from your own party. It's not pretty. This should give you some inkling of the way things might go.
 
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tstorm823

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Some estimates say that climate change might drive around a billion people to migrate within our lifetimes. Sure, that might be a high end figure, but even so there is a substantial risk it will still be very large numbers of people. Overwhelmingly this is likely to involve poor people who had almost nothing losing even the little they had.

After that, you just stop to take a look at the rhetoric surrounding migrants in the USA and Europe currently, such as that from your own party. It's not pretty. This should give you some inkling of the way things might go.
And right back to catastrophizing.
That's odd, considering all those posts you made expressing them. "A general rise is counterfactual", "Scientists are unclear", "it is fine", etc etc.
Your conclusions aren't based on the sources you post, the reasoning between the two is either non-existent or faulty, and me pointing that out doesn't turn me into whatever position you feel like arguing against.
 

Agema

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And right back to catastrophizing.
This is not catastrophising. These are the sorts of things your government, mine, and many others are looking at right now. They are doing so because it is the job of governments to need to plan and prepare for future events, and widespread movement of people due to climate is a substantial likelihood. The hope is that most of it will be internal (i.e. from one part of a country to another), but even so everyone in the field knows perfectly well that this sort of disruption will contribute heavily to increased international migration too. Our governments will likely need to do something, even if that's just pumping aid to affected countries to try to help manage the problem (which is to say, keep it away from our borders).

Ideally we'd be making oil companies and shareholders pay, but we all know by now that their profits are sacrosanct.
 

Silvanus

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Your conclusions aren't based on the sources you post, the reasoning between the two is either non-existent or faulty [...]
All sources provided so far, including yours, have attested that the overall risk of wildfire will increase with climate change. Which was exactly my conclusion. And exactly what you argued against. You're not going to get around that.
 

tstorm823

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This is not catastrophising. These are the sorts of things your government, mine, and many others are looking at right now. They are doing so because it is the job of governments to need to plan and prepare for future events, and widespread movement of people due to climate is a substantial likelihood. The hope is that most of it will be internal (i.e. from one part of a country to another), but even so everyone in the field knows perfectly well that this sort of disruption will contribute heavily to increased international migration too. Our governments will likely need to do something, even if that's just pumping aid to affected countries to try to help manage the problem (which is to say, keep it away from our borders).

Ideally we'd be making oil companies and shareholders pay, but we all know by now that their profits are sacrosanct.
This post is nearly the opposite in tone of your previous one. You went from saying a billion poor people will need to move and nobody will help them all the way to saying most of that movement is intranational and our governments are already planning to help them wherever they happen to be across the world. The first one is catastrophizing, the second is reasonable.
All sources provided so far, including yours, have attested that the overall risk of wildfire will increase with climate change. Which was exactly my conclusion. And exactly what you argued against. You're not going to get around that.
You're very willfully never going to understand this.
 

Silvanus

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This post is nearly the opposite in tone of your previous one. You went from saying a billion poor people will need to move and nobody will help them [...]
This is a lie. You're switching 'might' for 'will' and stripping all nuance to draw a false comparison. Its the same trick you tried to pull before, when you pretended the scientists were just giving 'might' statements, by snipping that single one out of context-- and ignoring the dozens of other 'will' and 'high confidence' statements.

'Will' and 'might' just switch places as is most convenient, apparently! Look at that!

You're very willfully never going to understand this.
Every time you're directly confronted with your own words and those of the sources that contradict you, the response is one of these insubstantial one-liners. I wonder why?
 

Agema

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This post is nearly the opposite in tone of your previous one. You went from saying a billion poor people will need to move and nobody will help them all the way to saying most of that movement is intranational and our governments are already planning to help them wherever they happen to be across the world. The first one is catastrophizing, the second is reasonable.
I fear the perceived inconsistency is merely you not really thinking through what all of this means, which I suppose is understandable given your apparent lack of familiarity with the topic.

The mass displacement of hundreds of millions - billions is severe whether intra- or international. We are not talking about people just moving to get a better job. This is places becoming uninhabitable, economically barren: both people losing what little they had and becoming destitute, and the loss of productive land. This is why models also project a loss of global GDP up to 20% by 2050. Contextually, that's about 5-10 years annual GDP growth, so the global economy will continue to grow. But it represents very considerable loss of economic activity in parts of the world, for which there will be a substantial human cost.

And yes, there will be planning to help. But to give you an idea what this means, consider that just because the British had a plan to cope with Germany bombing much of south and central England in the early 1940s, it didn't mean that bombing didn't cause a lot of problems.
 

tstorm823

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Every time you're directly confronted with your own words and those of the sources that contradict you, the response is one of these insubstantial one-liners. I wonder why?
Every time you "confront my words", you make them up. Every time you present some source, you exaggerate their claims.
The mass displacement of hundreds of millions - billions is severe whether intra- or international.
The entire western hemisphere is populated by a billion people who relocated on the time scale you're describing with dramatically less means to do so than what we have now. I don't imagine you'd claim either those people or the places they left behind are terribly worse off for it.