The Future of Electric Vehicles

hanselthecaretaker

My flask is half full
Legacy
Nov 18, 2010
8,738
5,905
118
Seems Tesla’s near monopoly on the market will continue for some time -


Trying to understand the logistics of the increasingly inevitable(?) shift to these things, and it kinda seems like a modern day business Wild West scenario. Only now we’ll need a shitton more horses.
 

meiam

Elite Member
Dec 9, 2010
3,330
1,645
118
EV are much simpler to build than ICE vehicle, especially since the most complex part is the battery and that can be relatively easily outsourced to another company and standardize. Company that dominated ICE production were master of making complex supply chain involving dozen of country and hundreds of parts, but that isn't quite as necessary for EV and so they have to shift strengths while at the same time still supporting the old business model, which is still the dominant one and will be for quite some time. There's a lot of promise to phase out ICE and make them illegal, but there's yet to be any serious construction of the charging infrastructure needed to replace petrol stations.

At the same time there's a lot of new entrant in the field, from Tesla to chinese company (you don't hear about them in the west, but they sell a lot in poorer country that can't really afford west "premium"), while at the same time the number of vehicule sold isn't growing at the pace it used to. The world is becoming more urbanized and more and more people are willing to live without their own personal car.

The industry is also suffering from a lot of copy cat, because Tesla did so well in the stockmarket there was a top down push for other company to imitate it, but why buy GM Tesla lite when you can just buy a real Tesla for a similar price?
 

EvilRoy

The face I make when I see unguarded pie.
Legacy
Jan 9, 2011
1,840
537
118
I think the main barrier to EVs is really going to be on the component/infrastructure side rather than the vehicle manufacturer side.

GM having missteps isn't that surprising, but ultimately we know for a fact from other examples that efficient EV production is possible. Companies like GM are going to struggle, but they have the money and time to get there, eventually.

I'm more worried about the strain on the power grid and the environmental damage that comes with mining lithium for batteries.

On the grid side, only time will tell. In North America, our grids are pretty neglected. It varies by state and province but there are areas in desperate need of maintenance, upgrades and additional generation. I'm not sure what the US is up to, but in Canada I know of three new solar plants having gone up in the last few years so progress is being made at least. Presumably as natural gas gets more expensive and health concerns raise, stuff like gas heating will drop off in the American Midwest and Canadian West and that will pressure politicians to budget for more upkeep and expansion of the grid.

On the battery side, it's looking... Ok. Lithium extraction isn't good for the environment, no doubt there. But recycling and more efficient designs are helping to mitigate. We also have this new battery design, sodium ion, being worked on that has the potential to be more efficient than lithium and less destructive to produce. That's 'potential' though. It's not quite here yet, and although it has a huge amount of industry backing, this stuff takes time.

My big fear is that EV adoption outpaces these other processes. I want to get there soon, but not so soon that the grid gets over strained and someone hits the panic switch and does something dumb like outlawing home EV charging.
 

Ag3ma

Elite Member
Jan 4, 2023
2,433
2,102
118
Seems Tesla’s near monopoly on the market will continue for some time -
Tesla got out of the blocks quickly, but other companies have got right up there too. In particular, Tesla might massively dominate the US EV market, but outside the US its position is much weaker. Two features of this I think is that Tesla specifically targetted the US market very hard compared to anywhere else, and secondly that the US firms have a much stronger presence in the US market than other major markets, but appear to have largely flubbed their EV development.

In Europe I think Tesla is not even the market leader. Although Tesla has the two best-selling individual models, VW has a higher total EV market share, and plenty of other firms are doing well and strongly competitive.

Trying to understand the logistics of the increasingly inevitable(?) shift to these things, and it kinda seems like a modern day business Wild West scenario. Only now we’ll need a shitton more horses.
You are absolutely right. Massive disruptions create sink or swim situations for companies where they adapt or die, and the move to EV is a massive disruption in the automotive industry. As above, I think the traditional US companies have a lot of work to do, because they appear to be well behind Tesla and several European and Far Eastern firms. The EV market is still small (<10%), so they can still rake it in for years to come on their petrol/diesel models, but if they don't get moving, they could be in trouble.

This has been a major issue for the UK. The UK is actually still a major car manufacturer (just not of any British-owned companies), but as usual, the UK has been unable to think beyond the finance industry and its infrastructure for EV is borderline non-existent. There's interest from companies, but my expectation is that the government will, predictably, flub giving adequate support to the EV industry and the country will be saying goodbye to another sizeable chunk of its manufacturing base.
 
  • Like
Reactions: hanselthecaretaker

The Rogue Wolf

Stealthy Carnivore
Legacy
Nov 25, 2007
16,302
8,779
118
Stalking the Digital Tundra
Gender
✅
...but as usual, the UK has been unable to think beyond the finance industry and its infrastructure for EV is borderline non-existent.
See, that's kind of surprising for me; I'd expect with how close-in and urbanized so much of the UK seems to be compared to wide swaths of the US, building out charging stations would be much easier. It's not like you've got nearly as many stretches of lonely highway in the middle of nowhere to worry about.
 

Baffle

Elite Member
Oct 22, 2016
3,459
2,746
118
See, that's kind of surprising for me; I'd expect with how close-in and urbanized so much of the UK seems to be compared to wide swaths of the US, building out charging stations would be much easier. It's not like you've got nearly as many stretches of lonely highway in the middle of nowhere to worry about.
You'd think it would be ideal, but you forget that we are the Land Where Things Cannot Be Better.

I'd quite like an electric car but I do few enough miles a year that it's just not even close to cost effective to change. By the time my current car dies (which hopefully is a way off) things will be better I think. Though the collapse of Britvolt (really) does not bode well.
 

Ag3ma

Elite Member
Jan 4, 2023
2,433
2,102
118
See, that's kind of surprising for me; I'd expect with how close-in and urbanized so much of the UK seems to be compared to wide swaths of the US, building out charging stations would be much easier. It's not like you've got nearly as many stretches of lonely highway in the middle of nowhere to worry about.
Apologies: I meant the infrastucture to build EVs - specifically, battery factories. Nissan has committed to a battery factory for its plant, but otherwise there's nothing. It makes little sense for companies to have the battery production in another country than the rest of their production (unless in Europe with near-frictionless travel across borders). If companies manufacturing cars in the UK don't decide to build battery factories in the UK, the obvious concern is that suggests they'll decide it's easier to move their car manufacturing to the battery plant. Car manufacturing, including all the supply chain firms and so on, is estimated to keep about 800,000 Britons employed.
 

Terminal Blue

Elite Member
Legacy
Feb 18, 2010
3,906
1,774
118
Country
United Kingdom
Electric vehicles aren't going to be a thing. Not for a very long time.

The reason Tesla dominates the market is because electric vehicles are still just expensive toys for rich, gullible people. They can sort of work as an overpriced, inefficient replacement for personal cars. That's about it. Logistical vehicles will need to be gasoline powered for many decades because the electric versions are so completely disastrous in every meaningful performance criteria, so the infrastructure to maintain gasoline vehicles isn't going anywhere.

See, that's kind of surprising for me; I'd expect with how close-in and urbanized so much of the UK seems to be compared to wide swaths of the US, building out charging stations would be much easier. It's not like you've got nearly as many stretches of lonely highway in the middle of nowhere to worry about.
The UK is relatively urbanized, but like most European countries it also isn't built around the same philosophy of car-centrism that exists in the US. It's entirely possible and relatively easy to live in most UK cities without owning or needing a car at all. Urban sprawl in the US sense is much less prevalent because designated "green belts" force large cities to be built more densely.

Cars also don't have the same cultural or political importance in the UK, so people may not feel as motivated to use cars as a form of personal or political self-expression.
 

Ag3ma

Elite Member
Jan 4, 2023
2,433
2,102
118
The reason Tesla dominates the market is because electric vehicles are still just expensive toys for rich, gullible people. They can sort of work as an overpriced, inefficient replacement for personal cars.
Studies suggest that EVs are - over lifetime use - cheaper than petrol/diesel cars already. More has to be paid upfront, but the running and maintenance costs are lower. These lower costs enable the initial purchase to be covered in part or full by a loan. It is also likely that cost effectiveness of EVs is only going to improve, as it's a younger technology where development will deliver reduced costs faster than the very mature technology of the combustion engine.

Obvious limitations are long-distance travel - if the car has a range of 200 miles and needs 30-60 mins to charge, that's going to add a lot of time, presuming there are even points available. However, for shorter journey day use that many mostly use their car for (e.g. commuting, shopping), there's every reason to think EVs will supplant petrol / diesel quite handily.

I'd agree that petrol / diesel will be around for many years, but I think EVs are going to end up a very large percentage of the household car market.
 

Baffle

Elite Member
Oct 22, 2016
3,459
2,746
118
Studies suggest that EVs are - over lifetime use - cheaper than petrol/diesel cars already. More has to be paid upfront, but the running and maintenance costs are lower.
Based on my annual mileage (pretty low) and my current diesel MPG, switching to electric would save me about £100 a year on fuel (assuming the Skoda website reflects currently UK power prices). The thing is, my diesel car cost me £7K when it was five years old; a similar electric (Hyundai Ioniq compared to my Insignia - I don't know or care much about cars) is double that. That's why I don't have an electric car.
 

Cheetodust

Elite Member
Jun 2, 2020
1,581
2,290
118
Country
Ireland
In Europe I think Tesla is not even the market leader. Although Tesla has the two best-selling individual models, VW has a higher total EV market share, and plenty of other firms are doing well and strongly competitive.
Speaking purely anecdotally, in Ireland they don't seem to be a major presence. I know a few people with EVs and only one owns a tesla. Coincidentally it's my former employer who dabbled in slavery, tax fraud and cheating covid subsidies for personal gain whose scumfuckery almost made me ineligible for the covid allowance when my new job shut due to restrictions and another former employee because they were still claiming the wage subsidy for her despite her being gone months. So exactly the kind of guy who you picture driving a tesla.
 
  • Like
Reactions: RhombusHatesYou

Baffle

Elite Member
Oct 22, 2016
3,459
2,746
118
Speaking purely anecdotally, in Ireland they don't seem to be a major presence. I know a few people with EVs and only one owns a tesla. Coincidentally it's my former employer who dabbled in slavery, tax fraud and cheating covid subsidies for personal gain whose scumfuckery almost made me ineligible for the covid allowance when my new job shut due to restrictions and another former employee because they were still claiming the wage subsidy for her despite her being gone months. So exactly the kind of guy who you picture driving a tesla.
This is a very accurate summary of Tesla Man.
 

The Rogue Wolf

Stealthy Carnivore
Legacy
Nov 25, 2007
16,302
8,779
118
Stalking the Digital Tundra
Gender
✅
One good thing about an EV: You can run things off of it if you lose power, without having to worry about killing your family with carbon monoxide.


Apparently the electric F-150 can power your whole home for a while if necessary.
 

hanselthecaretaker

My flask is half full
Legacy
Nov 18, 2010
8,738
5,905
118
Apparently it’s not just gas vehicles that will get eventually be phased out -

Even a Dem senator has commented,
Upon learning of the DOE proposal, West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin, the Democratic chairman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, took to his twitter account to say the government “has no business telling me - or any American family - how to cook dinner.”

The gist,

When Sec. Granholm denies the “government’s coming in to take your stuff,” she is technically correct. There won’t be any federal agents in sunglasses and black suits showing up at your doorstep to load your gas stove into a black helicopter to fly it away to a central federal dump site.

Unless congress moves in a bipartisan way to put a stop to these nascent regulatory actions, though, what will inevitably happen is an effort at implementing incremental regulatory creep that will slowly but surely price gas stoves out of the market for all but the wealthiest upper class of the country. The government simply lacks any scientific basis that would withstand scrutiny in court for an outright ban on these appliances. Given that gas stoves are currently used in about 40% of American homes, there would likely also be a big political price to pay from implementing an immediate ban


Time broaches the topic a bit more -