US 2024 Presidential Election

[Chimpzy]

Trump needs to hang. That was my position in 2016, that was my position in 2020 and that is my position now. The fact that Biden thought he could make peace with the people who sold out the country and the fact that Harris followed in his footsteps is the reason they have thrown their nation to the wolves once again. Who ever failed to give the order to shoot when Trump's cronies tried to overthrow the government squandered the last chance America had to recover. And because of those cunts Trump's and his flunkies are gonna throw Europe under the bus. In a couple years the Russian army is probably gonna be on our doorstepr with the implicit blessing of the American government. Death to America, seriously.dearh to the Republican Party and death to the Democratic Party that is coddling and enabling it.

Thomas Crooks and Ryan Routh had the right idea. Just not the right skill set.

 

[Bedinsis]

Welp. I did not foresee this. I decided to tune out most of the speculation and just assume the cocksure Allan Lichtman was right, but as he said in the last minutes of his stream to his co-host, "We're both numbers guys, there's no way she can catch up.". Still, I didn't have to walk around in constant worry of something I had no power over, so I guess that was a win for me.

Some things I found interesting:

- Latino voters did not overwhelmingly vote for the Democrats.

- A majority of Florida voters wanted Roe v. Wade protection (though 57 % was apparently not sufficient).

- Miami went for Trump, despite the fact that the Democrats' largest support was as usual among the urban population.

 

[gorfias]

Something to keep in mind with all the talk about how Trump won the popular vote, my prediction from a few pages ago is holding true so far, it looks like Trump will end up with roughly the same number of votes he got in 2020. The shift was entirely on Kamala/Biden.

So what does that mean? Well it means that Trump isn't any more popular than he was 4 years ago, his message didn't win many voters. So it's not like people are clamoring for Trump's ideas, he should be very careful about that whole "will of the people" line. He has a dedicated cult that can't be swayed, but little else. Additionally, several abortion ballots went through the states, and most of them passed. Florida didn't, but only because Desantis changed the rules, otherwise it would have. It's definitely popular at least.

On the flipside, trying to peel supporters away from him is a fool's errand and dems really really need to stop trying. All it did was cost ~10 million votes. A clear eyed look at these results just says that dems have an enthusiasm problem, and it's linked to running to the right.

There appears to be something wrong with your analysis, maybe. Did Trump pick up a butt load of support from demographics that did not support him in 2020? For example, men, regardless of race? Just saw a talking head also blaming white women for the loss. Did Trump pick them up % wise or did they stay home?

ITMT: Still dunno why the counting stopped dead but, this just in:

" The vice-president is now expected to speak at the venue at 16:00 EST (21:00 GMT) on Wednesday. She did not concede on election night, despite it becoming clear by Wednesday morning that Trump had secured enough votes in key swing states to win. "

 

[crimson5pheonix]

There appears to be something wrong with your analysis, maybe. Did Trump pick up a butt load of support from demographics that did not support him in 2020? For example, men, regardless of race? Just saw a talking head also blaming white women for the loss. Did Trump pick them up % wise or did they stay home?

ITMT: Still dunno why the counting stopped dead but, this just in:

" The vice-president is now expected to speak at the venue at 16:00 EST (21:00 GMT) on Wednesday. She did not concede on election night, despite it becoming clear by Wednesday morning that Trump had secured enough votes in key swing states to win. "

People just stayed home. Votes are still being counted, but Trump is currently at ~72 million votes compared to 2020 when he had 74 million votes. I think these numbers will be very close to each other once all the voting ends. It's certainly possible that the actual voting demographics changed (earning more votes from one demographic and then just having those gains offset by losses elsewhere), but all that says is that nothing Trump did gained him support overall.

In other words, Trump didn't win this race, Kamala lost it.

 

[Dirty Hipsters]

This is all entirely the fault of the DNC and the democratic party elites.

I'm just going to quote myself from July when Biden stepped down.

Everyone in the democratic party knew that Joe Biden was too old to run a second term, and yet elites in the party kept pushing that everything was fine and that Biden was totally on the ball and capable. Every time that democrat voters brought up Biden's age prior to the debate they were shouted down. "Look what a great job Biden's been doing, it doesn't matter how old he is, what matters is results!"

Then the debate happened and everyone collectively shit themselves over Biden's terrible performance, and now those same elites who were pushing for everyone to shut up and stop talking about Biden's age were the ones pushing for him to drop out.

This was a known issue. This was a known issue before the primaries even started. This should have been dealt with a year ago.

Well now Biden's dropped out and who do we have to replace him? A bunch of untested candidates who no one voted for or Harris.

People are already getting offended by Harris being referred to as the DE&I candidate, but how exactly is that false? Would she have been Biden's VP if she wasn't a black woman? Doubtful given that Biden was specifically pressured by the Democratic party into choosing a black woman. Does she have specific credentials that make her a particularly effective politician? Not really. She was a district attorney, but that's not very high up the political ladder. She's never been a mayor, governor, etc.

People are saying that Harris is qualified to be president because she was Biden's VP, and would have been president had Biden died. As far as I know VPs don't do much. They don't hold a lot of power or have a lot of responsibilities. I don't know that her being Biden's VP means she's learned everything she needs to be president. What exactly has Harris done as Biden's VP?

These are all shit choices.

The Democratic party spent too long supporting and coddling an aging Biden who was not fit to run for a second term. I'm pretty sure everyone who voted for Biden in 2020 expected him to be a one-term president. No one wanted him to run again, but they were just expected to get in line for a man who was 16 years past retirement age. Then when it was finally apparent that he was in too much cognitive decline to put up a significant fight against Trump the Democratic elite finally turned on him, but it was too late.

3 months is not enough time to create a presidential campaign from scratch, especially against someone who has spent the last 8 years straight campaigning.

Had Biden confirmed he would not be seeking reelection a year ago I imagine we might have a very different result now.

 

[Johnny Novgorod]

Michigan called for Trump. That's 5 out of 7 swing states and counting.

If the remaining states are called as they're leaning right now Trump ends up with more electoral votes than he got in 2016 (or Biden did in 2020), on top of securing the popular vote.

 

[Worgen]

The Democratic party spent too long supporting and coddling an aging Biden who was not fit to run for a second term. I'm pretty sure everyone who voted for Biden in 2020 expected him to be a one-term president. No one wanted him to run again, but they were just expected to get in line for a man who was 16 years past retirement age. Then when it was finally apparent that he was in too much cognitive decline to put up a significant fight against Trump the Democratic elite finally turned on him, but it was too late.

Sounds more like Biden shouldn't have stepped down, we threw away a huge incumbent advantage by not running him again. You forget that trump is probably more senile then Biden, but he's better at disguising it with word vomit. Biden would stop to think, trump would just vomit out words. You also have Biden trying to remember facts and figures when trump could just spout bullshit.

 

[Kwak]

 

[Dirty Hipsters]

Sounds more like Biden shouldn't have stepped down, we threw away a huge incumbent advantage by not running him again. You forget that trump is probably more senile then Biden, but he's better at disguising it with word vomit. Biden would stop to think, trump would just vomit out words. You also have Biden trying to remember facts and figures when trump could just spout bullshit.

Presidential elections aren't about facts and figures, they're about vibes. Biden wanted to win on facts but when no one is fact checking and people are getting their facts from facebook rather than than president then the facts don't matter. Biden's vibe was that he was too old, too tired, too slow, and too senile to do the job. It doesn't matter that he's more competent then Trump.

Frankly, both of them are so old that no private company would ever hire either of them, and Harris isn't far behind despite being touted as "fresh and young". She's 60, she's 5 years from retirement age. She would also be practically unhireable in the private sector.

 

[Worgen]

Presidential elections aren't about facts and figures, they're about vibes. Biden wanted to win on facts but when no one is fact checking and people are getting their facts from facebook rather than than president then the facts don't matter. Biden's vibe was that he was too old, too tired, too slow, and too senile to do the job. It doesn't matter that he's more competent then Trump.

Frankly, both of them are so old that no private company would ever hire either of them, and Harris isn't far behind despite being touted as "fresh and young". She's 60, she's 5 years from retirement age. She would also be practically unhireable in the private sector.

Democrats like facts and figures, if we just wanted vibes we would be republicans.

 

[Dirty Hipsters]

Democrats like facts and figures, if we just wanted vibes we would be republicans.

Vibes is entirely how Obama was elected.

 

[Worgen]

Vibes is entirely how Obama was elected.

Sounds like someone wasn't paying attention.

 

[Silvanus]

So it's not like people are clamoring for Trump's ideas, he should be very careful about that whole "will of the people" line.

Why? What's going to go wrong for him if he isn't?

 

[Dirty Hipsters]

Sounds like someone wasn't paying attention.

Elections aren't won by appealing to hardcore democrats or appealing to hardcore republicans who vote in every election. They're won by appealing to the people who would otherwise stay home. Those people get excited based on vibes, or they don't.

Only 37% of eligible adult citizens voted in all 3 of the previous elections (2018, 2020, and 2022), which were some of the highest turn-out elections ever.

Elections are won by getting people who vote intermittently to actually go out and vote. This is 100% vibes.

 

[Hades]

She did not concede on election night, despite it becoming clear by Wednesday morning that Trump had secured enough votes in key swing states to win. "

Some right wingers act smarmy or offended about that one....despite Trump not having given a concession speech at all when he lost and still hasn't even admitted that he indeed lost. Its so hypocritical.

 

[Hades]

One thing that striking is the rampant double standard on all sorts of issues.

Most striking is the age thing. Biden's age and mental faculties were depicted as an existential horror but the barely younger and even more mentally declined Trump was totally fine. Sure, it gets noted but mostly in the sense that he's goofy or unfit for office, not the same existential horror. It was sooo important the US wouldn't get an elderly mentally mentally declined president. And now they have, but because its a red one instead of a blue one its acceptable.

But also the insults. Trump says the most horrible things about all sorts of groups, but the moment its a comedian doing it then suddenly that's bad. And in the following day when Biden does it its just as suddenly bad.

Trump is routinely incoherent, often to the bizarre but for Biden that's DemEnTiA and Harris its wOrD sALLaD.

Or the war thing. As much praise Trump gets about ''not starting new wars'' its worth pointing out that Biden didn't start wars either yet none of the people praising Trump acknowledge that. Even more bizarre is that the same people trying to sneakily wriggle their way around the issue by saying ''hurr hurr Biden might not have started new wars but OTHERS did!'' accept that Trump loudly applauds those starting the wars while Biden tries doing something about it...uh...in one out of two cases at least.

 

[crimson5pheonix]

Why? What's going to go wrong for him if he isn't?

Electoral defeats, starting at the midterms. Especially note that Trump himself is insulated, but the downticket Rs aren't nearly as tough. They won the senate, but only by a small amount, and most contested R elections underperformed Trump himself. He has a devoted cult, not the party.

 

[BrawlMan]

One thing that striking is the rampant double standard on all sorts of issues.

Most striking is the age thing. Biden's age and mental faculties were depicted as an existential horror but the barely younger and even more mentally declined Trump was totally fine. Sure, it gets noted but mostly in the sense that he's goofy or unfit for office, not the same existential horror. It was sooo important the US wouldn't get an elderly mentally mentally declined president. And now they have, but because its a red one instead of a blue one its acceptable.

But also the insults. Trump says the most horrible things about all sorts of groups, but the moment its a comedian doing it then suddenly that's bad. And in the following day when Biden does it its just as suddenly bad.

Trump is routinely incoherent, often to the bizarre but for Biden that's DemEnTiA and Harris its wOrD sALLaD.

Or the war thing. As much praise Trump gets about ''not starting new wars'' its worth pointing out that Biden didn't start wars either yet none of the people praising Trump acknowledge that. Even more bizarre is that the same people trying to sneakily wriggle their way around the issue by saying ''hurr hurr Biden might not have started new wars but OTHERS did!'' accept that Trump loudly applauds those starting the wars while Biden tries doing something about it...uh...in one out of two cases at least.

Thank you. I never wanted Biden to step down in the first place, and I found it wrong, nobody went after Trump because of his age. Harris I had no issues with but I once again, I call out the people who act like Trump is gonna stop the war or protect them or to think they won't get hit back badly. For those that wanted him, I hope you're happy and you got what you wanted. Just remember you pick somebody who does not give a shit about this country Enhance more than willingly sold us all is out just to make himself feel better and please his as ego.

 

[Casual Shinji]

That's an easy one and one that we've been trying to warn you all about for months now

Someone being shit doesn't make the other person not-shit. Especially when the other person supports Fascist-lite shit like the police crackdowns on "anti-Semitic" protests on college campuses (including Chuck Schumer stating he would make it hate speech in certain criticisms of Israel), having a "tougher immigration bill than Donald Trump would do", and you know, that tiny little Genocide thing going on in Israel/Palestine that we're funding.

I have no idea why so many of you are shocked that Trump lost votes from the last time he ran but he still managed to whoop Harris without even needing the fucky whucky Electoral College to pull it off. You call Trump a Fascist for doing Fascisty stuff but defend Harris when she does Fascisty stuff just because she's on Team Blue. When you have 99% Hitler go up against 100% Hitler, 100% Hitler is going to win because the people who want Hitler will vote for him but the people who don't want Hitler won't just ignore the 99% part...

That's cool. I'd still take aid for Ukraine and generally defense from Russia getting free reign in (Eastern) Europe, retaining the reproductive rights still present, no ripple effect Trump's win will have for the current rise of the far-right in Europe, plus the significantly less emboldening of hatred toward marginalized communities, over all those things Harris does WITHOUT any of that. And if that's just 1% I'll take it over not having that 1%, because as it stands right now it feels very significant.

It's neat that you think Harris is only a few percentages less Hitler than Trump is, but I'm sure at the time those who suffered under Hitler would've gadly taken it. Fighting slightly lesser Hitler will always be preferable over fighting full-blownsy Hitler.

 

[tippy2k2]

That's cool. I'd still take aid for Ukraine and generally defense from Russia getting free reign in (Eastern) Europe, retaining the reproductive rights still present, no ripple effect Trump's win will have for the current rise of the far-right in Europe, plus the significantly less emboldening of hatred toward marginalized communities, over all those things Harris does WITHOUT any of that. And if that's just 1% I'll take it over not having that 1%, because as it stands right now it feels very significant.

It's neat that you think Harris is only a few percentages less Hitler than Trump is, but I'm sure at the time those who suffered under Hitler would've gladly taken it. Fighting slightly lesser Hitler will always be preferable over fighting full-blownsy Hitler.

And this is why your party will keep losing until they figure out that being less shit than Republicans isn't enough for much of the country. Whether you think it's fair or right or whatever word you want to use doesn't really matter. "I'm THE LESSER EVIL" is still Evil, especially this go around when they decided that Genocide gets to be on the "Lesser Evil" side. The average voter needs reasons to vote for you, not reasons to not vote for the opponent.