I think he honestly believed that it would work- that "his people" would seize the Capitol building and force everyone to make him President for life. That's how all of his dictator buddies would do it!
Mm. Tricky.
His phone calls (e.g. to Raffensperger) and his demands Mike Pence throw the result suggest he was willing to attempt extreme, absurd and arguably illegal tactics. If he seriously convinced himself they would work he's really pathological, but more likely he was desperately trying what he knew were long shots. Personally, I think he did it mostly just because it was an incredible ego trip to have people love him so much that they would desecrate democracy by sacking the Capitol for him, with a side order of cruel, vengeful pleasure in making people he hated have to flee the mob. And that's why people with his sort of personality disorder self-sabotage, because he's too blinded by a need for immediate gratification.
He's actually done that a lot, but mostly in much smaller ways. Take the thing about his stubby fingers. Most people wouldn't care about being accused of it that much, and they certainly wouldn't spend
decades sending photos trying to prove otherwise to the journalist who wrote it. Most people would realise how weird that would make them seem, and also how counterproductive ("The Donald doth protest too much, methinks", to paraphrase Shakespeare.) But not someone with a personality disorder, who cannot help themselves.