Ukraine

[Eacaraxe]

Howdy folks, I just thought I'd pop back in the thread and see how things are going in here...

Putin's gambling that Europe will give up rather than explore alternate energy sources. Ten years ago, this would've had a clear shot at success. Now? Not so certain. And if he's wrong, he's just permanently cratered a major part of his country's economy.

Hmm...

Meanwhile, half of Europe shot itself in the head eleven years ago when it collectively deuced its pants after Fukushima, bailed on nuclear power, and latched itself firmly onto the Russian fossil fuels teat...while simultaneously bull-baiting, trying to get Ukraine into NATO. Putin et. al. know damn well their geopolitical "opposition" to this is a paper tiger, he has the economic leverage to pull this off, and his own "opponents" are the ones responsible. This is 100% "The West's" chickens coming home to roost after a decade of absolute stupidity.

But wait, there's more!

lol, which Russian threat, the one of them cutting off LNG exports to the EU? Don't know if you've noticed but Germany and France seems to have already decided on the EU's behalf in which hemisphere their national interests lie. Merkel bent the knee to Putin so hard she cracked the pavement eleven years ago when that specter raised its head the first time.

Angela Merkel hits out at US sanctions on Nord Stream 2 pipeline

German chancellor criticises new curbs but says Berlin will not seek to retaliate

www.ft.com

Russia's Putin, Germany's Merkel pledge support to Nord Stream 2: Kremlin

Russian President Vladimir Putin and his German counterpart Angela Merkel agreed to further support the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project in a phone call on Sunday, the Kremlin said.

www.reuters.com

Nord Stream 2: Germany prepares defence against US over pipeline

Trump has already imposed sanctions against firms involved in Russia-Germany gas pipeline, and is now threatening more.

www.aljazeera.com

A Russian Gas Pipeline Increases Tension Between the U.S. and Europe (Published 2020)

The Nord Stream 2 Russia-to-Germany pipeline is 94 percent complete. Washington wants to keep it that way.

www.nytimes.com

US senators’ letter on Nord Stream 2 sparks outrage in Germany

Sanctions warning sent to port operator heightens tensions over controversial gas pipeline

www.ft.com

Truly, the Eisenhower of our times. Germany and the EU is so committed to fighting the Russian threat they're willing to...become Russia's biggest energy trading partner, and cut all those pesky countries in which Russia has been "interfering" for a decade out of the loop to do it. Because as can clearly be seen from the US's not-at-all complex and dubious relationship with Saudi Arabia, that gives the energy-exporting country no leverage in trade negotiations, nor has any possibility of unintended consequence.

Because of course, this somehow must be Trump's fault despite having started and continued for the eight years we don't talk about between Bush and Trump.

 

[Satinavian]

They've quite rapidly reduced reliance on Russian oil since the invasion began (from 55% or so to 33% or so IIRC?). Which is good, but... well, if they're able to do that at this speed now, it rather indicates that they were able to do so before, but chose not to out of complacency. Which is another mark for incompetence for the CDU.

Sure they were able to do so before. But why would they ? For many decades Russia always provided a steady supply and never endangered it for politics. And the gas was cheaper. And many people did still believe in the idea of decreasing tensions through economic bonds. And last bu not least they know they could suddenly and quite fast reduce dependency whenever they really needed to do.

Is that true? IIRC, India's all for buying Russian gas right now, and China's a solid trading partner with Russia.

There are two problems with that.

First is that both India and China know of the Russian troubles and demand (and get) tremendous discounts. The world market price is rising but that certainly does not mean that China or India wants to buy more at the time when it is extra expensive. Pretty much the opposite.

The second is that there are no pipelines from the gas field that formerly exported to Europe going to India or China and building new ones would take many years. The alternative is shipping, but as Europe now needs to import more gas via ships as well, those are scarce. And the sanctions mean there is no insurrance for transports from Russia which means international shipping is quite reluctant to do so.

There have been reports of Russia just burning the gas they no longer export because they can't store or redirect it and just turning off the production is difficult.

 

[PsychedelicDiamond]

Yeah. I generally felt in the past that Germany seemed to be quite stably and maturely run. Well, relative to the rest of Europe, anyway. But it was also very slow to respond when the Ukraine crisis began.

They've quite rapidly reduced reliance on Russian oil since the invasion began (from 55% or so to 33% or so IIRC?). Which is good, but... well, if they're able to do that at this speed now, it rather indicates that they were able to do so before, but chose not to out of complacency. Which is another mark for incompetence for the CDU.

Christ, the world's governments have been absolutely unforgivably slow to react to the energy necessities of the climate crisis (when they haven't been outright vandals, like Bolsonaro).

Yes, I know that Germany gives of the impression of having its shit together most of the time, but it's more complicated than that. In that time period between the late 00's to the mid 10's, characterized by Angela Merkel's chancellorship and various conservative dominated governments, it was a pretty chill place to live but that's because it wasn't facing any major issues. What I'm saying is, Merkel and co were more or less governing a nation that ran itself.

Truth of the matter is though, that when Germany was faced with any type of serious crisis, it turned out to be slow and ineffective when it comes to handling it. Back during the refugee crisis of the Syrian Civil War was when I first realized this, and first felt like I saw the real face of this country, which was pretty ugly. Its when you had white nationalists marching through the streets and, even worse, entering the parliament, where they still are. The government handled the situation by grovelling to Turkey, having never been too proud to cozy up to fascists.

A few years later, the Covid pandemic. Same story. Slow to adapt functional preventive measures, shed a light on how understaffed and underfunded our hospitals are, once the vaccines were available we had constant shortages and of course the entire anti-vaccine, anti-mask, anti-democratic death cult kept growing.

Here we are again with the Ukraine War. Same story, only with various liberal parties in charge instead of the conservatives. Who, to be fair, basically inherited the supply issues in regards to gas and electricity from the previous government, but up until well after the invasion had started, you could tell the new government would have really liked to sit it out and not get on Russia's bad side too much. Which led us to the current situation where we don't know whether we'll have heating and electricity in winter because our government sold our infrastructure out to fascists.

What I'm saying is, this has been a long time coming. Our stability was more a product of good circumstances than of actual wise decisions made during the Merkel years.

 

[Silvanus]

Sure they were able to do so before. But why would they ? For many decades Russia always provided a steady supply and never endangered it for politics. And the gas was cheaper. And many people did still believe in the idea of decreasing tensions through economic bonds. And last bu not least they know they could suddenly and quite fast reduce dependency whenever they really needed to do.

Why would they? Firstly, because Russia had been sabre-rattling for many of those decades, and you do not want to tie your ability to exist to the whims of a quasi-mobster with outwardly hostile intentions towards you.

Secondly, because fossil fuels needed to be phased out anyway, regardless of the geopolitical situation with Russia. It's a necessity in order to address the climate crisis, to transfer to renewables (and/or nuclear).

Sure, they can reduce dependency quite fast. Not really fast enough, though, is it? The war is nearly 200 days old, and Germany is still dependent for about a third of its fuel. Now they face shortages and price-hikes as a result of a failure to forward-plan.

Not that the UK can claim much of a higher ground on that front.

 

[Satinavian]

Secondly, because fossil fuels needed to be phased out anyway, regardless of the geopolitical situation with Russia. It's a necessity in order to address the climate crisis, to transfer to renewables (and/or nuclear).

I always regarded the move away from nuclear as a mistake in a time where reducing emissions was the aim and renewables could and should have been supported way harder. However for good reasons Germany concentrated on getting rid of coal before gas.

Aside from that, Germany uses gas not so much for electricity generation and primarily for heating. Which is harder to replace. And electrical heating is far less efficient unless you have a building that can reasonably be fitted with heat exchangers. After heating comes the use as raw material for the industry, primarily chemical industry. And those are the guys that cry the loadest about the shortage because German law says that in case of emergency the industry has to take the cut so that families still can heat their homes.

Sure, they can reduce dependency quite fast. Not really fast enough, though, is it? The war is nearly 200 days old, and Germany is still dependent for about a third of its fuel. Now they face shortages and price-hikes as a result of a failure to forward-plan.

Not that the UK can claim much of a higher ground on that front.

That certainly could have been better, yes. But the main reason for the price hike and the shortages is that everyone else tries to get away from Russian gas at the exact same time. Replacing the gas for Germany alone would have been significantly easier if the rest of the EU could jump in.

 

[Silvanus]

The long awaited Ukrainian counter-offensive is well underway now, both in the South and towards Kharkiv in the north-east. It had been widely expected that it would be focused on the South, but the simultaneous push towards Kharkiv was mostly unexpected.

Zelensky has claimed Ukraine has retaken 1,000 Square km. Of course claims of Ukrainian success should be taken with a pinch of salt. But photos have appeared showing Ukrainian troops deep into Kherson territory, in what had very recently been occupied by Russia, so it's clearly had significant success already.

Ukraine has retaken 1,000 sq km of territory, Volodymyr Zelenskiy says

President announces soldiers have taken key eastern town of Balakliia, as US secretary of state visits Kyiv

www.theguardian.com

Meanwhile, both the G7 and the EU are intending to introduce fuel price caps (something which should have been done long ago regardless of the war, for simple economic and affordability reasons). Russia has threatened to entirely stop energy exports to Europe if they do, intending to keep gas prices sky high.

 

[Dalisclock]

The long awaited Ukrainian counter-offensive is well underway now, both in the South and towards Kharkiv in the north-east. It had been widely expected that it would be focused on the South, but the simultaneous push towards Kharkiv was mostly unexpected.

Zelensky has claimed Ukraine has retaken 1,000 Square km. Of course claims of Ukrainian success should be taken with a pinch of salt. But photos have appeared showing Ukrainian troops deep into Kherson territory, in what had very recently been occupied by Russia, so it's clearly had significant success already.

Ukraine has retaken 1,000 sq km of territory, Volodymyr Zelenskiy says

President announces soldiers have taken key eastern town of Balakliia, as US secretary of state visits Kyiv

www.theguardian.com

Meanwhile, both the G7 and the EU are intending to introduce fuel price caps (something which should have been done long ago regardless of the war, for simple economic and affordability reasons). Russia has threatened to entirely stop energy exports to Europe if they do, intending to keep gas prices sky high.

Apparently Russia went as far to admit the Ukranians are gaining ground. Not sure how that happened and I can only imagine someone is gonna "Fall" out a window in the next week or so in Russia.

Ukraine retakes territory in Kharkiv region as Russian front crumbles

Ukrainian forces have seized an expanding area of previously Russian-held territory in the east in a "very sharp and rapid" advance, a Russian-installed regional official said on Friday, in a breakthrough that may mark a turning point in the war.

www.reuters.com

 

[Dalisclock]

Also if anyone is interested in recapping the big picture stuff, Kings and Generals has been doing a mostly up to date video series covering each month of the war so far.


It's up to July or August at this point. Videos are around 30 min each but pretty interesting. It is appreciated they point out that some things are confirmed vs. claimed by either side. Notably number of losses, which they've been tallying up at the end of each video.

 

[The Rogue Wolf]

Apparently Russia went as far to admit the Ukranians are gaining ground. Not sure how that happened and I can only imagine someone is gonna "Fall" out a window in the next week or so in Russia.

Ukraine retakes territory in Kharkiv region as Russian front crumbles

Ukrainian forces have seized an expanding area of previously Russian-held territory in the east in a "very sharp and rapid" advance, a Russian-installed regional official said on Friday, in a breakthrough that may mark a turning point in the war.

www.reuters.com

Oh, that's not gonna go over well with Putin after his "Russia has lost nothing" claim. He's not terribly fond of being contradicted.

 

[Kwak]

Oh, that's not gonna go over well with Putin after his "Russia has lost nothing" claim. He's not terribly fond of being contradicted.

 

[EvilRoy]

I thought that was a joke, but holy shit. Someone cranked him at least twice, and judging by the cut they didn't take their rings off to do it.

 

[The Rogue Wolf]

Putin's also not a huge fan of subtlety.

 

[Dalisclock]

I thought that was a joke, but holy shit. Someone cranked him at least twice, and judging by the cut they didn't take their rings off to do it.

Daddy Putin was mad. Daddy Putin wanted everyone to know he was mad. Don't worry, Daddy Putin still loves him though, and only beats him because he was given no choice.

 

[Dalisclock]

Russia-Ukraine War: Ukrainian Forces Take Key City, Igniting New Phase in War (Published 2022)

Russia’s Defense Ministry confirmed its forces had withdrawn from Izium. Ukraine’s lightning offensive in the northeast has reshaped what had become a grinding war of attrition.

www.nytimes.com

Russia's "Strategic Withdrawal" continues. Rumor has it they're repositioning to better defend Moscow from a direct assault.

 

[Silvanus]

Russia-Ukraine War: Ukrainian Forces Take Key City, Igniting New Phase in War (Published 2022)

Russia’s Defense Ministry confirmed its forces had withdrawn from Izium. Ukraine’s lightning offensive in the northeast has reshaped what had become a grinding war of attrition.

www.nytimes.com

Russia's "Strategic Withdrawal" continues. Rumor has it they're repositioning to better defend Moscow from a direct assault.

Izium is a major victory, but perhaps more logistically significant is Kupiansk, which sits at the meeting point of all major railway lines for most of Eastern Ukraine-- and is further east than Kharkiv city.

Russian media currently claims Ukraine has taken 50% of Kupiansk, while Ukrainian media claims they've taken the city completely. Both are probably exaggeration/understatement, but photos confirm Ukrainian troops have definitely entered the city at least. Given the rate of advance over the last couple of days, and how undefended the Russians left Kharkiv Oblast, it looks very likely Ukraine either has or will soon take Kupiansk, at which point a Ukrainian victory throughout the north-east-- and especially in Kharkiv City-- looks pretty inevitable.

 

[Dalisclock]

Izium is a major victory, but perhaps more logistically significant is Kupiansk, which sits at the meeting point of all major railway lines for most of Eastern Ukraine-- and is further east than Kharkiv city.

Russian media currently claims Ukraine has taken 50% of Kupiansk, while Ukrainian media claims they've taken the city completely. Both are probably exaggeration/understatement, but photos confirm Ukrainian troops have definitely entered the city at least. Given the rate of advance over the last couple of days, and how undefended the Russians left Kharkiv Oblast, it looks very likely Ukraine either has or will soon take Kupiansk, at which point a Ukrainian victory throughout the north-east-- and especially in Kharkiv City-- looks pretty inevitable.

I'm sure the loss of a major logistical hub isn't that big of a deal. The Russians have perfectly good boots they can nom on when things get lean. /s

More seriously, If I'm not mistaken, apparently Ukraine was hinting they were gonna drive on Kherson and while they did attack there, apparently Russia repositioned a number of troops down there leaving the Kupiansk region on it's on. Which sounds like a really dumb feint to fall for but honestly my expectations for the Russian military doesn't have a lower limit at this point.

 

[Godzillarich(aka tf2godz)]

Russia turned off the gas to Europe. We knew that was going too happen But the timing seemed weird considering it wasn't Winter yet.

I wonder if Russian leadershiip knew this was coming so they activated their trrump card Hoping to scare Europe

 

[Hades]

So its too soon to say for sure but its at least possible the Ukrainian army is able to strike at Donesk.

 

[Dalisclock]

So its too soon to say for sure but its at least possible the Ukrainian army is able to strike at Donesk.

I'm curious what those sources are but it would certainly be good news.

 

[Godzillarich(aka tf2godz)]

Russia announces troop pullback from Ukraine's Kharkiv area

Russia’s Defense Ministry says it's pulling back forces from two areas in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region where a Ukrainian counteroffensive has made significant advances in the past week.

apnews.com

This is Russia's Vietnam, along with Finland and Afghanistan.