MovieBob's 2014 Oscar Handicap

MovieBob

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MovieBob's 2014 Oscar Handicap

MovieBob look at the top categories for the Academy Awards and offers his choices for the winners.

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deathmothon

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Trishbot said:
Yes, but will Bad Grandpa win for best makeup? That's the only one that matters!
Ha, I forgot about that. I mean, who cares about best picture when we could see ole Johnathon Knoxville doing something stupid during the pretentiousness awards. I'll catch the clip the next day.
 

hermes

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Did I miss some thing?

When did Gravity became such an left-field favorite (a status I thought American Hustle occupied before)? Are people actually considering it one of the mayor Best Picture candidates?
 

KazeAizen

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My only concern is what will best animated film. Wreck-it-Ralph or Paranorman should've won it last year but The Academy has been blinded by Pixar for so long it seems they have forgotten other studios can make better animated movies. If The Wind Rises hadn't come out this year Frozen would have it locked up. However The Wind Rises is a Miyazaki film and his last one at that so its likely that The Academy might vote for it because it is a foreign animated film from THE breakout anime director who has actually managed to get his name recognized beyond the simple anime fanbase. I haven't seen The Wind Rises but from what I've heard it doesn't seem to be the film that can beat Frozen. Actually kind of sad Miyazaki's last film isn't some grand fantasy epic like Princess Mononoke. :(

Also my other concern is who will win best song. I thought "Let it Go." had it locked up for the Golden Globes but NOOOOOOO. U2 won. I listened to their song and I wasn't too impressed. If it wasn't attached to that Nelson Mandella movie it probably would've lost. If there is justice in the world Frozen and Let it Go will win their categories. Otherwise I"m going to see this years Oscars as another year where truly great animations got robbed by lesser products. *looking at you Brave* :mad:
 

shiajun

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I think I'm weird. Scorcese's films don't mesh with me at all. I find them good, well realized films but never these "OMG, it's just so majestic" film making. "Her" far surpassed my emotional engagament with "Wolf". Also, if best director can go to James Cameron for "Avatar", Cuarón sure as hell deserves it for "Gravity" more so than the others on the list.
 

Darth Sea Bass

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Scorsese has no chance they threw him his bone when he won with The Departed. Don't get me wrong it's a good film but nowhere near Scorsese's best.
 

K12

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Is it just me or is anyone else slightly annoyed by the notion that Gravity is a science fiction film?

It's in space sure but it uses all existing technology (and out of date mind you since the shuttle programme is over). I don't see how this is any more science fiction than any other film about currently existing technology.
 

jmarquiso

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Strangely enough, I have differing thoughts about "Her" as a screenplay. It's incredibly well realized directorially, and the dialog between the OS and Him are quite naturalistic. But naturalistic isn't necessarily good. Finally, some of the friends are non-entities, and some characters (particuarly the video game characters) are poor attempts at humor and "futurism". I mean, it's interesting in that it's trying to age the teenage youtube audience to their 30s, but wwithout realizing that the immature comments on youtube are made by people IN their 30s.
 

Sylocat

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Did Bob ever publish anything on why he doesn't like American Hustle? He's been offhandedly bashing it for a while now, and I never got why.
 

impocalyptic

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I can't agree with the notion of any of these films stealing Scorsese's Oscar (except American Hustle because that was pretty atrocious). Scorsese is amazing and has been since he started, but Wolf didn't have as much to say as 12 Years A Slave. It's still an incredibly fun and well made movie that deserves a nomination, but it isn't the best. Sorry.
 

RedDeadFred

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impocalyptic said:
I can't agree with the notion of any of these films stealing Scorsese's Oscar (except American Hustle because that was pretty atrocious). Scorsese is amazing and has been since he started, but Wolf didn't have as much to say as 12 Years A Slave. It's still an incredibly fun and well made movie that deserves a nomination, but it isn't the best. Sorry.
Agreed. While I did enjoy Wolf more (simply because Slave is really difficult to watch in many parts), 12 Years as a Slave had a much bigger emotional impact on me and will stay in my mind for a much longer time. As for Gravity, I wouldn't be disappointed if it won either. It was easily the greatest spectacle movie I've ever seen and it actually has some substance to it which many of these kinds of movies lack. I know a lot of people on this site seemed to hate it for it's lack of realism which I agree with, but I don't go to movies for realism. For me, that's what real life is for. If movies were like real life, action stars wouldn't exist and there'd be no Avengers.
 

vagabondwillsmile

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KazeAizen said:
My only concern is what will best animated film. Wreck-it-Ralph or Paranorman should've won it last year but The Academy has been blinded by Pixar for so long it seems they have forgotten other studios can make better animated movies. If The Wind Rises hadn't come out this year Frozen would have it locked up. However The Wind Rises is a Miyazaki film and his last one at that so its likely that The Academy might vote for it because it is a foreign animated film from THE breakout anime director who has actually managed to get his name recognized beyond the simple anime fanbase. I haven't seen The Wind Rises but from what I've heard it doesn't seem to be the film that can beat Frozen. Actually kind of sad Miyazaki's last film isn't some grand fantasy epic like Princess Mononoke. :(

Also my other concern is who will win best song. I thought "Let it Go." had it locked up for the Golden Globes but NOOOOOOO. U2 won. I listened to their song and I wasn't too impressed. If it wasn't attached to that Nelson Mandella movie it probably would've lost. If there is justice in the world Frozen and Let it Go will win their categories. Otherwise I"m going to see this years Oscars as another year where truly great animations got robbed by lesser products. *looking at you Brave* :mad:
I admit I would like to see Miyazaki get best animation. If not it, would be really cool if he got a lifetime achievement award. He's been holing down 2D pencil and paper animation (which is basically dead in the U.S. for feature-length film now) longer and better than anybody else.

Why the hate for Brave? This seems to be pretty common, but I can't figure it out. I took a date to see it and we both loved it and laughed a lot - she saw it again the next day with her mom and said they cried their eyes out. It doesn't have musical numbers or a sidekick (Mother Bear notwithstanding). But what Brave didn't have is part of why I really liked it. It felt concise, focused, and effective as a script; and everything it did, it seemed to do really, really well. The main character was strong and cool too. If I was a little girl I would have been nuts about her, and would have immediately sought out archery lessons. Wreck-it-Ralph was awesome too (I never saw Paranorman). Side by side, it seems like a difference between what a person subjectively likes more rather than one being objectively inferior to the other. So is it just a matter of taste? Is it a division between Disney musical theater style and standard screenplay animation? Why didn't you like it (this is the first time I've bothered asking someone - so I'm asking out of genuine interest and not be snarky)?

Anyway, I just hope Gravity doesn't get best picture. I remember seeing the preview for the first time and gripping the arms of the seat and feeling genuinely frighted by the solitude and vastness of space (a girl behind us in the theater shouted, "Nope!" at the screen after the preview Hehe). Then I saw the movie and there was someone to talk to every five minutes, three space stations within walking distance, expository explanation of EVERYTHING!, a random (though admittedly beautiful) emptily metaphorical shot of the main character back-lit and floating in the pod bay with her tether conveniently crossing the silhouette to her navel so she looks like child in the womb (trailer shot if I ever saw one), a third act that turns into schlock, and not a fraction of the fear and foreboding I felt from the preview. It was spectacle - bloody impressive spectacle, mind - but nothing else.
 

Mistilteinn

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My only question is why "American Hustle" is up for so many awards? I saw it in theaters, and honestly, it was one of the blandest movies I've seen in a while. Maybe it's because my expectations of what kind of movie it was were incorrect before I saw it, but from start to finish I just couldn't find myself getting into it. None of the characters were really likable (hell, I'd call most of 'em sociopaths, not that I'm a psychologist or anything), the plot seemed to be all over the place, and it just dragged on for way too long.
 

pearcinator

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Are you going to go over what got snubbed? For example, Prisoners and Hugh Jackman (possibly because it opened only 2 weeks before Gravity and was quickly forgotten over the Gravity hype)

Gravity IS a director's film...it's actually not that good after watching it a second time. There is almost no plot and the movie only goes for 90 minutes but is filled with scenes that go on for way too long. I hope it doesn't win Best Picture (I will be ok if it wins Best Director though).
 

Alarien

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So, on animated features:

I liked Brave a lot. I didn't love it. I felt it was missing something. Maybe it was the buildup, but I felt like Brave really should have been a very epic movie. Instead it was concise and nuclear, oriented at a family drama. On subsequent viewings, I find I like it more than I did previously, but I have never truly loved it. I love Merida. I think it's great that she's both a bratty kid and a decent role model for young girls (not necessarily a bad combination, mind you). I just feel that the story could have had ... more. I cannot come up with anything more objective. (still like it!)

That said, I am not a Disney fan or fanboy. I liked a few movies in the '90s animation revival a lot: Beauty and the Beast, The Lion King, and The Hunchback of Notre Dame (honestly, you should be condemned to hell for not liking anything Tony Jay has done... f you, if that's the case). I am not a fan of typical Disney princess girls beings damsels BS like The Little Mermaid and Pocahontas. I didn't like Hercules because, despite James Woods semi-awesomesauce, the movie was one big mis-interpretation of Greek drama into a modern religious and contextual sentiment that not only didn't work for me, but flat out appalled me (and I normally liked the "En Vogue" (and countless predecessors) style).

However, Frozen should win this. Hands down.

I love Miyazaki. I think Princess Mononoke and Spirited Away are two of the best and most thought provoking films of all time. I love alot of his other films, with Kiki's Delivery Service and Howl's Moving Castle as other amazing stand outs.

I have not yet seen The Wind Rises though I'm really anticipating it. I hope it's truly awesome, though I'm getting a strong Grave of the Firelfies (truly great movie) feel from it.

Still, Frozen actually (finally!) destroys traditional female role-portrayal for western mainstream animation. Both Elsa and Anna completely break away from the "true love's kiss" bullshit and "someday my Prince (a boy, obviously) will come" crap, that has been dominant in our culture and, if for nothing more than that, they really deserve recognition.

I have a 3 year old daughter and this is really relevant to me. She adores Elsa, for which I am very grateful. She also loves Cole and Jay from Lego's animated Ninjago series and all of the Mane 6 from MLP: FIM (all of which I'm really grateful for). Elsa and Anna are strong role models for American girls, compared to (fucking awful) Ariel, Snow White, Cinderella, and (the worst of the bunch) Sleeping Beauty (whatever her irrelevant name is).

For this alone, set aside the fact that the movie is both really well done and, finally makes a comedic sidekick that isn't another Jar Jar, I would give a huge nod to Frozen.

Also, Let it Go is Defying Gravity done correctly. It has proper song structure (Defying Gravity is great, but it's not a single song, more of a series of semi-related song-vignettes), good melody, and an absolutely masterful performance by the (currently incomparable) Idina Menzel. Even Lea Salonga (a truly elite tier superstar voice) can't stand up to her on this.
 

KazeAizen

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vagabondwillsmile said:
I admit I would like to see Miyazaki get best animation. If not it, would be really cool if he got a lifetime achievement award. He's been holing down 2D pencil and paper animation (which is basically dead in the U.S. for feature-length film now) longer and better than anybody else.

Why the hate for Brave? This seems to be pretty common, but I can't figure it out. I took a date to see it and we both loved it and laughed a lot - she saw it again the next day with her mom and said they cried their eyes out. It doesn't have musical numbers or a sidekick (Mother Bear notwithstanding). But what Brave didn't have is part of why I really liked it. It felt concise, focused, and effective as a script; and everything it did, it seemed to do really, really well. The main character was strong and cool too. If I was a little girl I would have been nuts about her, and would have immediately sought out archery lessons. Wreck-it-Ralph was awesome too (I never saw Paranorman). Side by side, it seems like a difference between what a person subjectively likes more rather than one being objectively inferior to the other. So is it just a matter of taste? Is it a division between Disney musical theater style and standard screenplay animation? Why didn't you like it (this is the first time I've bothered asking someone - so I'm asking out of genuine interest and not be snarky)?

Anyway, I just hope Gravity doesn't get best picture. I remember seeing the preview for the first time and gripping the arms of the seat and feeling genuinely frighted by the solitude and vastness of space (a girl behind us in the theater shouted, "Nope!" at the screen after the preview Hehe). Then I saw the movie and there was someone to talk to every five minutes, three space stations within walking distance, expository explanation of EVERYTHING!, a random (though admittedly beautiful) emptily metaphorical shot of the main character back-lit and floating in the pod bay with her tether conveniently crossing the silhouette to her navel so she looks like child in the womb (trailer shot if I ever saw one), a third act that turns into schlock, and not a fraction of the fear and foreboding I felt from the preview. It was spectacle - bloody impressive spectacle, mind - but nothing else.
Miyazaki should get a life time achievement award. Unless Disney decides to use the tech it developed for Paperman its not likely we'll get a legit 2D animated film until someone years later down the line has the balls to make one.

Its not so much as hate as utter disappointment. While I don't think my feelings for it are as bad as Moviebob's on say Man of Steel I do have to say that I liked it less and less as time when on. It looks gorgeous. Hell Pixar rebuilt their animation program from scratch to make it. I saw it with my mom the first time. I liked it. I honestly did but I felt kind of I don't know, empty I guess when I left the theatre. Like there was a space I had made for it to fill inside and it just didn't. Yes it is funny and yes it is touching in parts but this might be the case of the marketing for this movie being just a bit too good. The marketing seemed to build up an epic quest to change her fate. Something along The Lord of the Rings style though maybe not quite that big. I think for a lot of people it was just profound disappointment on how small the story was I guess. Its not a division between the Disney musical theatre or anything like that. Wreck-it-Ralph wasn't a Disney musical. I thought Wreck-it-Ralph was a better movie because it had a more memorable villain, a more interesting conflict/conspiracy going on, and actually delivered more on its marketing than Brave did. In short I didn't like Brave because it was built up into something it actually wasn't and what it was wasn't exactly something we've never seen before or a particularly interesting take on it for me. I"m actually a little miffed that Merida has been officially made a Disney Princess even though she a Pixar character. Yes I know Disney owns Pixar but people seem to forget that Disney has two animation studios with Walt Disney Animation Studios being its main one.

As for Gravity I wouldn't mind if it won. It seems this year in terms of Oscars there really aren't that many snubs. Save one and that is that Lone Ranger got nominated for best visual effects over Pacific Rim. WTF?! Doesn't matter because Gravity will most certainly win that one. For me that I had a different experience with Gravity then you. Sure the rebirth metaphor was kind of hokey but it did what it needed to do and that was give me a near anxiety attack for the whole damn movie. My brother said his heart was beating rapidly long after we left the theatre. I doubt it will win Best Picture but I'm just glad we don't have a King's Speech or whatever that movie was that beat out Inception a few years back to deal with. The kind of safe, not quite provocative or exciting material that seems to be this years crop. For me the well directed "safe movies" need to stop winning. We need more 12 years, Inceptions, and Wolfs winning. Who knows maybe Jupiter Rising or Interstellar will take it come next year.
 

RA92

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shiajun said:
I think I'm weird. Scorcese's films don't mesh with me at all. I find them good, well realized films but never these "OMG, it's just so majestic" film making. "Her" far surpassed my emotional engagament with "Wolf".
Along the same line of subjectivity, I couldn't stand 'Her'. I could appreciate the script, I could appreciate Joaquin Phoenix's portrayal of the character... but throughout the movie I constantly felt like getting up and slapping him to snap out of it. Mostly because he reminded me of myself a year back. Watching the movie basically made me wallow in self-hatred, and I managed to make only halfway through it. Gah.

I guess Casablanca will remain the only romantic movie I will have ever enjoyed.
 

Kingjackl

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I think it says a lot that throughout that article, at no point did it ever come down to "this film should win...because it's better/more deserving than the rest". I'm not saying that's a comment on Moviebob or his views, more that it's kind of sad how little quality of a film seems to have to do with it compared to politics. I guess we are fortunate that all of the nominees are pretty good.