Study: Robots Expected to Replace 5 Million Jobs By 2020

[John Keefer]

Study: Robots Expected to Replace 5 Million Jobs By 2020

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Administrative and office jobs are expected to be hardest hit by a wave of automation that is expected to gradually hit the work force by 2020.

Advances are being made quickly in the field of robotics and automation, and while many of these achievements have the tech industry patting itself on the back, these advancements are expected to put a major dent in the human workforce by 2020.

According to a recent study by the World Economic Forum [http://www3.weforum.org/docs/Media/WEF_Future_of_Jobs_embargoed.pdf], more than five million jobs could be lost to a robot work force, primarily in the office and administrative field. The study also expects that further robotic inroads will be made in the fields of manufacturing and production, areas that already have a strong automated presence.

The study claims that this "fourth industrial revolution" is coming because of the major advancements in "genetics, artificial intelligence, robotics, nanotechnology, 3D printing, and biotechnology." About two million human jobs are expected to be gained in smaller job fields, but about 7.1 million jobs will be lost to AI workers, for a net replacement of about five million jobs.

The 150-plus page report is full of charts and graphs looking at all fields of employment. The report is in preparation for the public good endeavors [http://www.weforum.org/events/world-economic-forum-annual-meeting-2016] as Employment, Skills and Human Capital; Environment and Resource Security; Food Security and Agriculture; Future of the Global Financial System; Future of the Internet; and more.

Source: Digital Trends [http://www.weforum.org/]

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[Maze1125]

It's almost as though we need to stop assuming that there are always enough jobs for everybody and that anyone who doesn't have a job must just be lazy...

 

[DocImpossible452]

I like the idea that we're leveraging our tech, but there's going to need to be a shift in the way our economy works to accommodate it. If there are fewer workers, products can be made more cheaply, but will this drive down the cost of basic commodities or will the companies just focus on maximizing profits for the few humans running everything at the top?

Maybe I'm being overly simplistic, and maybe things will adjust as they did in the last three industrial revolutions, I'm not sure I know enough to say.

 

[Neurotic Void Melody]

Great, now more pointless job titles will need to be invented to fulfill the desires of the ever-bloating sweaty cannibalistic behemoth of capitalism. Endless economic growth is not viable. This such system will be under desperate strain unless we rethink our future and stop letting short-sighted entrepreneurs take power over our laws and lands.

 

[zidine100]

will this drive down the cost of basic commodities or will the companies just focus on maximizing profits for the few humans running everything at the top?

I can say with reasonable certainty that the people on top always need more, I highly doubt the savings will be passed onto us unless it becomes absolutely essential.

 

[syl3r]

so whats the big deal?
i mean, 5 million sounds much, but on a worldwide scale its not that bad.
and the introduction of automatic robots in manufacturing cost probably way more then 5 mil jobs.
also, this ai has to be created in the first place, and maintained, and upgraded.
that will keep people busy until it can do all that on its own. but until then.... well i think we have enough time to think about a solution

 

[pookie101]

so whats the big deal?
i mean, 5 million sounds much, but on a worldwide scale its not that bad.
and the introduction of automatic robots in manufacturing cost probably way more then 5 mil jobs.
also, this ai has to be created in the first place, and maintained, and upgraded.
that will keep people busy until it can do all that on its own. but until then.... well i think we have enough time to think about a solution

the deal is that its just the beginning, the sorts of figures ive seen are upwards of 40% of jobs no longer needing a human to do them

 

[The Almighty Aardvark]

the deal is that its just the beginning, the sorts of figures ive seen are upwards of 40% of jobs no longer needing a human to do them

Self-driving cars are probably somewhere in those statistics. From what I've read, in the US alone there's something like 5 million driving jobs in the transportation industry. If When self-driving cars start seeing widespread use, we're going to see a large portion of those 5 million drivers becoming unemployed. Particularly when more and more of the low skill jobs are becoming automated, it's only going to become more difficult for those displaced workers to find jobs they have the qualifications for.

Hell, even the market of skilled jobs isn't doing so hot. A number of my friends who're graduating with degrees have resigned to the fact that they probably need to get another degree because there's no jobs in their field. These aren't fluffy degrees either, they're stuff like geology, physics and medical imaging technology maintenance

 

[Parasondox]

Then go on strike by 2021...

and rebel against humans in 2022.

Humans are screwing over humans for more profit. Capitalism *****!!

 

[Deathfish15]

Weren't administrative and jobs replaced years ago by ANSWERING MACHINES?!

But seriously, the jobs themselves used a lot of outdated systems like Rolodex, filing cabinets, and fax machines. All those three easily replaced by a single computer (add an external storage drive for file backup on a 2-12x daily rotation depending on the update frequency and importance of the documents).

And most the administrative and office jobs went to females. Reasons behind this being sexist, of course because the male boss liked to have a figure to look at. Yes it was sexist and chauvinistic, but such is life. Now days with feminist movements, lawsuits heavily weighing against sexual harassment at work, and female bosses it changes things (thankfully for the better). But better work conditions then finds that tech beats out people, and thus the job loss trickles outward.


Also, what with 64 people owning over 50% of the world's wealth (yep, only 64 people own more than 3.5 billion people have combined), it is of no surprise that they're once again cutting middleclass and lowerclass jobs just so that they can themselves save more money in the process. Sickening.

Great, now more pointless job titles will need to be invented to fulfill the desires of the ever-bloating sweaty cannibalistic behemoth of capitalism. Endless economic growth is not viable. This such system will be under desperate strain unless we rethink our future and stop letting short-sighted entrepreneurs take power over our laws and lands.

The problem isn't JUST Capitalism. The problem is also personal responsibility on the social construct by individuals.

Basically put into a simpler term:
~~~~~~People need to stop screwing and popping out more babies than they themselves can economically support!

That is the underlying issue with a lot of countries right now. US is especially susceptible to this because for new mothers there are programs that say "taxpayers will pay for your child for quite a few years from birth on!" such as WIC, Welfare, and Foodstamps. Hate to bring in something so morally questionable to other people, but abortion might be the right answer to many who are just unfit to support another living being brought into this world. Before the fetus develops, before it becomes its own being that is more than just a cluster of cells, before the brain is mostly formed, that is a time to decide "this isn't right" and be done with it.

 

[IamLEAM1983]

so whats the big deal?
i mean, 5 million sounds much, but on a worldwide scale its not that bad.
and the introduction of automatic robots in manufacturing cost probably way more then 5 mil jobs.
also, this ai has to be created in the first place, and maintained, and upgraded.
that will keep people busy until it can do all that on its own. but until then.... well i think we have enough time to think about a solution

the deal is that its just the beginning, the sorts of figures ive seen are upwards of 40% of jobs no longer needing a human to do them.

Cue the na?ve responses of "Yay! More time for arts, poetry and leisure!"

Unless the economy adjusts and the concept of social welfare shifts, we won't find ways to keep feeding those of us whose proficiencies have been or will be rendered obsolete.

 

[Chimpzy_v1legacy]

Then go on strike by 2021...

and rebel against humans in 2022.

Humans are screwing over humans for more profit. Capitalism *****!!

And then the robots will form their own nation, called 01, which will outcompete every other nation and drive the human economy into the dust. Then we'll nuke the crap out of them, creating a bunch of EMPs, which can and will wreck their electronic shit. There will be no Machine War, no one is gonna blot out the sun and humanity will not be turned into batteries for the bots.

So, sadly no awesome kung fu fights in a virtual world.

 

[Albino Boo]

You have to remember this is might not a will situation and a lot these kind of reports use trend data without looking at limiting factors of those trends. One of the big limiting factors is the lack of flexibility. In the service sector businesses expand and contract quickly according to the demand of the economic cycle. Robots take long term capital investment so your are betting on fixed level demand with robots. Its easier to higher and fire people and then spend large sums of money up front on AIs and robots.

One of the things that is driving investment is that many developed nations are facing demographic crashes. Japan has the worst problem with low birth rates and a long living population and it is the leading investor in this area. They simply won't have enough people of working age to fill the jobs that keep the economy functioning. Many Western European nations have less severe problem but in 25-30 years time increasing automation may be the only way to keep the economy functioning. Even China is facing a demographic crash in the next 30 years. So in the longer term, the lack of people to do the jobs will drive use of robots and AIs.

 

[SteewpidZombie]

Here is a possible upside to automatizing everything:

Eventually the majority of us won't need to work, and probably will get paid not to. Because everything will be so easy/cheap to produce and sell, so any country utilizing a majority of robotic/computer run jobs will be making more money and faster.

In return, anyone who actually goes out and gets a education in the field of maintaining or even creating these machines will actually be getting paid pretty damn well. Plus trade jobs in manufacturing or repairing machines in the field (so welders and mechanics) will also start making some ridiculous cash.

Which hopefully would mean that people going out and learning trade skills, or attending universities would actually be the ones making lots of money (which at the current moment is kind of a laughable fantasy we tell ourselves to try and ease the burden of knowing that crushing debt will follow us to the grave because we wasted upwards of 3 years spending money we didn't have for the CHANCE that there might be a job waiting for us on the other side...which there usually isn't for most students).

But of course these changes would obviously take alot of time, and could have drastic outcomes for varying countries as well as unforeseen problems. But in the end, we kinda need a new industrial revolution since our current world economies are crashing and burning in their current state.

 

[Starik20X6]

Time to break out one of my favourite YouTube videos:


"The future is a foreign country, and you aren't welcome there."

 

[Zontar]

It's almost as though we need to stop assuming that there are always enough jobs for everybody and that anyone who doesn't have a job must just be lazy...

Well it's not the case as it is. Right now the biggest problem is a refusal by people of my generation to enter fields that are open. Right now there are a million people with a degree in psychology in the US, many of whom are unemployed due to the fact that supply massively outstrips demand for people with such job qualifications, while there are a full 3 million job openings that is actually pushing the wages of whole industries up due to supply being hire-right-out-of-trade-schools/high-schools and still not being able to meet demand.

The problem isn't that there are or are not jobs, it's that people are training for the wrong ones. It's to the point where there are whole degrees which exist only to teach people how to get said degrees.

Mechanization has always been taking jobs away from people, this is something that has been complained about for over 200 years now. "Machines are going to replace us all, there's no possible way everyone can have a job with how things are going" is a complain that has been around for literally a century longer then any human has been alive.

 

[DudeistBelieve]

Here is a possible upside to automatizing everything:

Eventually the majority of us won't need to work, and probably will get paid not to. Because everything will be so easy/cheap to produce and sell, so any country utilizing a majority of robotic/computer run jobs will be making more money and faster.

In return, anyone who actually goes out and gets a education in the field of maintaining or even creating these machines will actually be getting paid pretty damn well. Plus trade jobs in manufacturing or repairing machines in the field (so welders and mechanics) will also start making some ridiculous cash.

Which hopefully would mean that people going out and learning trade skills, or attending universities would actually be the ones making lots of money (which at the current moment is kind of a laughable fantasy we tell ourselves to try and ease the burden of knowing that crushing debt will follow us to the grave because we wasted upwards of 3 years spending money we didn't have for the CHANCE that there might be a job waiting for us on the other side...which there usually isn't for most students).

But of course these changes would obviously take alot of time, and could have drastic outcomes for varying countries as well as unforeseen problems. But in the end, we kinda need a new industrial revolution since our current world economies are crashing and burning in their current state.

Oh I agree that were heading towards a much better economic system.... But it's that change period thats really going to suck.

I mean were going to be losing ALL the truck-driver positions. That's like a huge thing right there. Sure maybe it's better for all of us in the long run, but not if your Jeff The Truck Driver trying to pay your bills.

It's the main reason I'm trying to get out of debt as fast as I can. Shit is going to hit the fan and the better situation I'm in the more likely I'll survive.

 

[The Bucket]

Weren't administrative and jobs replaced years ago by ANSWERING MACHINES?!

But seriously, the jobs themselves used a lot of outdated systems like Rolodex, filing cabinets, and fax machines. All those three easily replaced by a single computer (add an external storage drive for file backup on a 2-12x daily rotation depending on the update frequency and importance of the documents).

And most the administrative and office jobs went to females. Reasons behind this being sexist, of course because the male boss liked to have a figure to look at. Yes it was sexist and chauvinistic, but such is life. Now days with feminist movements, lawsuits heavily weighing against sexual harassment at work, and female bosses it changes things (thankfully for the better). But better work conditions then finds that tech beats out people, and thus the job loss trickles outward.


Also, what with 64 people owning over 50% of the world's wealth (yep, only 64 people own more than 3.5 billion people have combined), it is of no surprise that they're once again cutting middleclass and lowerclass jobs just so that they can themselves save more money in the process. Sickening.

Great, now more pointless job titles will need to be invented to fulfill the desires of the ever-bloating sweaty cannibalistic behemoth of capitalism. Endless economic growth is not viable. This such system will be under desperate strain unless we rethink our future and stop letting short-sighted entrepreneurs take power over our laws and lands.

The problem isn't JUST Capitalism. The problem is also personal responsibility on the social construct by individuals.

Basically put into a simpler term:
~~~~~~People need to stop screwing and popping out more babies than they themselves can economically support!

That is the underlying issue with a lot of countries right now. US is especially susceptible to this because for new mothers there are programs that say "taxpayers will pay for your child for quite a few years from birth on!" such as WIC, Welfare, and Foodstamps. Hate to bring in something so morally questionable to other people, but abortion might be the right answer to many who are just unfit to support another living being brought into this world. Before the fetus develops, before it becomes its own being that is more than just a cluster of cells, before the brain is mostly formed, that is a time to decide "this isn't right" and be done with it.

The US and most of the first world is in no way overpopulated. On the contrary, an issue we're already starting to have is as life expectancy rises and birth rates lower many countries will have a massive population of retired older people with a much smaller population of working age people to support them. It's why China is repealing its one family, one child law

 

[DudeistBelieve]

It's almost as though we need to stop assuming that there are always enough jobs for everybody and that anyone who doesn't have a job must just be lazy...

Well it's not the case as it is. Right now the biggest problem is a refusal by people of my generation to enter fields that are open. Right now there are a million people with a degree in psychology in the US, many of whom are unemployed due to the fact that supply massively outstrips demand for people with such job qualifications, while there are a full 3 million job openings that is actually pushing the wages of whole industries up due to supply being hire-right-out-of-trade-schools/high-schools and still not being able to meet demand.

The problem isn't that there are or are not jobs, it's that people are training for the wrong ones. It's to the point where there are whole degrees which exist only to teach people how to get said degrees.

Mechanization has always been taking jobs away from people, this is something that has been complained about for over 200 years now. "Machines are going to replace us all, there's no possible way everyone can have a job with how things are going" is a complain that has been around for literally a century longer then any human has been alive.

It doesn't help that we lie to people from an early age, "Follow your dreams!" we say. All things are possible, we say. Without disclosing that, yeah but it takes a lot of work and a shit ton of luck.

If I could tell anything to the kids just going into school now I'd tell them, forget your dreams. GET PAID. You can always do that thing you want to do later.

 

[RJ 17]

Wow, I've got to say I'm sincerely impressed. This many posts and not a single "They took our jobs!" joke/reference.

Bravo, my fellow Escapists. Bravo.