Callate said:
At best, I would argue that it's certainly possible to kill more than a franchise; TellTale Games' recent collapse illustrates that a couple (or more) bad entries can kill a company, especially if that company is associated with a certain style or type of product and falling out of favor with a few entries raises questions about all future output.
I disagree on this point, as the news surrounding TT indicates it was more than just a couple of bad games that killed the company.
At worst, I look with a certain skepticism on the notion of any industry with a few big players dominating the scene being truly being "too big to fail". On one hand, it's true that we never had companies of the size and scope of present-day EA and Activision and 2K on the scene in the 1980s; on the other, we never had said companies falling under significant legal scrutiny, nor so dependent on their franchises (and, they would claim, the lootbox, DLC, and other profit-stretching mechanics attached to them) to turn a profit. To lose a major franchise- for EA to lose the Star Wars license, for example, or FIFA- could lead not just to a "vote of no confidence" not just from players, but from investors, one that could snowball.
The legal scrutiny is still limited in scope and largely relegated to companies being told they can't do specific things. Loot boxes are the big focus right now, and while certain games may be hampered as far as cash cows, there's still plenty of market space not currently under that kind of legal fire and unlikely to in the immediate future at the very least. Even loot boxes are being picked at not for being a shitty business model, but rather because they might kinda sorta be the kind of gambling we have laws against already. But if that battle is lost, corporations have other monetisation strategies that didn't come under such heavy fire. A win here where there is already established legal precedent and a parallel industry that gaming has encroached upon doesn't translate to a broader victory, and it certainly won't stop microtransactions and other ways to nickel-and-dime people.
Similarly, while losing a license like Star Wars would objectively not be good for corporate interests, neither would it in itself be any sort of killing blow. I'm not entirely sure how big the franchise is. Yeah, eformance of BF2 hurt stock, but so did the performance of Titanfall 2.
We've lost, or virtually lost, major companies before, as with Sega's abrupt departure from the hardware market.
And it's worth noting, again, that the problem with Sega was speculation on hardware. They lost consumer confidence by rapidly releasing multiple consoles, models of said console, peripherals, etc, all with some overlap and even games that required multiple add-ons. It was not only confusing to some people, but inconvenient and sometimes pointless. Why buy a console that wouldn't be supported in six months?
These circumstances are also unlikely to repeat. It's possible Microsoft or Sony might one day bow out of the console race, but it won't be under these circumstances. Consoles these days are released in predictable cycles, with hardware that is generally very similar between these two. And Nintendo does its own thing, is weird about it, but regularly builds its machines to be profitable no matter what. We could lose Nintendo, I guess, but they're probably safe as long as Mario, Zelda and Pok?mon are sellers. but the other two? They make remarkably unremarkable hardware that sells four generations after people said consoles were dead. Consoles sell huge, and people line up for their microtransaction-laden titles, and it's unlikely to change as long as consumers NEED the next CoD or Madden or whatever.
Consoles have come a long way from the days of "hey, let's release two rival console ideas within a few months of each other, what could go wrong?"
I'm not even sure the flood of terrible mobile games can crash the app store market, given the "whale" mentality of gaming right now. In fact, circling back to the top, the big problem is that things are so entrenched it would take massive, systemic reform to start impacting the industry on a large level. This is why EA can switch off loot boxes and be all "we'll be fine." That kind of change takes time, and that gives them time to come up with new methods to bilk players. Because if we've established one thing, it's that players will vote withtheir wallets...and make Rockstar enough money in Shark Cards to buy Mars.