Cynical Futurism

[Shannon Drake]

Cynical Futurism

<img src='http://images.escapistmag.com/thumbs/84615.jpg' class='GalleryThumbnail' border='0' height='200' width='150' align=right>Predicting the future is a tricky proposition. Miss Cleo the city is not yet a jelly-encased wasteland [http://www.ftc.gov/opa/2002/02/accessresource.htm]. Yet. But as is the case with all things, some are delusional enough to peer into the crystal ball and attempt to foretell the future. I am one such person. Herein, some predictions for the gaming industry in 2007.

The PC Predictions

The MMOG Shakeout of 2007. While I?m tired of hearing about World of Warcraft ? which, I predict, will be the next Second Life in terms of backlash ? it?s undeniable that it is a very polished, very good game. It has spawned a crop of aspiring imitators, possibly hundreds of them, gamely chasing the leavings of the behemoth, and 2007 is when the majority of them are going to fail. There will be more wailing and gnashing of teeth about WoW killing the genre, until industry types realize it?s a matter of adjusting to the new rules: It?s no longer acceptable to shove out a fantasy MMOG/DikuMUD/EverQuest clone that?s incomplete, with most major features coming in ?the first expansion, we promise.? Buyers aren?t going to tolerate a broken fantasy MMOG when they have a usually-working, quite playable fantasy MMOG that all their friends are already playing. Expect several high-profile flops and possibly one or two company shutdowns as the market proves smaller than anticipated.

<img src='http://images.escapistmag.com/thumbs/84616.jpg' class='GalleryThumbnail' border='0' height='195' width='200' align=right>You Buy Vista Whether You Like It Or Not. No one I know is excited about, or even very interested in, adding Windows Vista to their PC. But with Microsoft hitching Vista to Games for Windows (itself a huge initiative), they?ll probably have to upgrade eventually, especially to keep chasing the graphical curve with DirectX 10. However?

A Thriving Indy Scene Will Pop Up For XP. First-adopters chasing the polygon-pushing power of DX10 may be inclined to chase the Vista dream, but there are a lot of regular people out there who will be completely happy with Windows XP and will buy games targeted at them. I predict a lot of The Majors will be jumping on the Games for Windows bandwagon, leaving The Indies to market to the Everyone Else who hasn?t (or won?t) upgraded. It may even get to the point of the early '90s, where you had to scrutinize boxes very carefully to make sure you had the Apple 3B and not the Commdore 64C, in addition to the 3 megabytes of RAM. Heads start exploding in store aisles.

The Rebirth of Mac Gaming. Call me crazy, but I didn?t own any Macs a few years ago, didn?t even like them, and now I own a Mini and an iBook, and that doesn?t count my iPod or the iPhone I am lusting over. I?m not saying it will be huge, and I?m not saying they will dethrone anyone anytime soon, but I am saying with the iPhone running OS X and increasing market penetration of the desktops and notebooks, plus the Intel hardware switch, there?s more and more incentive for developers to get on-board with OS X.

Spore. The internet will shake with gamer outrage as Spore turns out to be a fun game, but not quite the masterpiece pictured in years of hype and active imagination. ?My expectations? usage will be at an all-time high.

The Handheld Predictions

<img src='http://images.escapistmag.com/thumbs/84617.jpg' class='GalleryThumbnail' border='0' height='200' width='110' align=right>The iPhone Forces Mobile Soul-Searching. Apple are clucking that no one would ever, ever pay $500 for a cell phone [http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070110/ap_on_hi_te/cisco_apple]. Flop? I remain skeptical. Apple took the MP3 player, formerly a confusing and poorly made geek accessory ? I know, I tried to mess with a pre-iPod MP3 player and shudder thinking about it ? and made it a fashion item. The white headphones are iconic now. And I?m just going to guess that people who will pay $250 for an MP3 player will pay $500 for what is essentially an MP3 player and a cutting-edge cell phone in something slightly bigger than a credit card. More importantly, a major player in the field with a phone using an actual operating system like OS X will finally force the mobile industry to settle on a standard if they want to compete. BREW, Java, Windows CE, I couldn?t tell you what my RAZR runs; all I can tell you is that I am quietly terrified of the notion that I might have to install software on it at some point, which means?

Mobile Gaming Gets Better. I?m also imagining a world where I?m going on a long trip, say, and I can?t take my game with me. Except, since my Mini and my iPhone run OS X, I can beam my save file over via Bluetooth and play a less intensive version of the same game on my phone while I travel. And I weep with joy. Unlikely? Not really. I know at least one developer working on a cell phone compatible version of their game client that?s stripped down some, but would still let you play, and MS is trying to force gaming into every niche of your life with LiveAnywhere.

The PSP Becomes The Dreamcast Of Handhelds. A few good games, not enough to save it. I quit taking the PSP seriously when I started looking for one to borrow and everyone was more worried about their homebrew software and ROMs than about playing the actual games intended for the system.

The DS Has Lots Of Neat Games. I think the battle is pretty much over here.

The Console Predictions

<img src='http://images.escapistmag.com/thumbs/84618.jpg' class='GalleryThumbnail' border='0' height='147' width='200' align=right>Microsoft Consolidates Its Position. The 360 is selling well and will continue to sell well as the exclusives fall like a house of cards. And sales figures so far do not include the monster that lurks over the horizon: Halo 3 is coming.

Sony Continues To Stagger. I know I?m not exactly original for jumping on the anti-Sony bandwagon, but their business strategy of late seems to be yelling, ?Guys, our console is really powerful! Guys?!? In the meantime, my EBGames has two signs on the front: a desperate looking ?We have the PS3 in stock!!? and an angry ?We have no Wiis in stock!? I don?t want to bet completely against them, because they may just pull a fistful of must-own games out of their hat and retake the lead, but I think they need to spend some wandering time in the desert and rethink their strategy. A price drop could give the PS3 the kick it needs, but I need to see some games coming out that I?d really want to play, first.

<img src='http://images.escapistmag.com/thumbs/84619.jpg' class='GalleryThumbnail' border='0' height='150' width='200' align=right>Nintendo Quietly Slips Into Your Home While You Sleep. The Wii is still out of stock everywhere, and even your grandmother can understand how to work it. When you can get your hands on one, you will. Or it will just appear in your entertainment center one day without you knowing it. Aging GenXers will overlook a somewhat sparse initial lineup to play the games they grew up with by themselves or with their kids on the Wii?s Virtual Console. The Wii will really take off when they launch the Wii 2.0 ? much like the DS ? which is even more fun than the original. You still won?t be able to find one in a store.

Bonus Prediction

From Hell's Heart, I Stab At Thee, Denver. Denver will become a jelly-encased wasteland. That?s one I?m willing to bet on.

Permalink

 

[astroboi]

You know what would be worth seeing? An Apple + Nintendo partnership. New, innovative, cool, both companies have it and the world would never look back..

 

[ZacQuickSilver]

If Apple and Nintendo did do the unimaginable (You TRY to imagine what they will do. All I wall say is you will be wrong: they will come up with something better, more popular, and/or more revolutionary than every prediction you make), the gaming world, as we know it, will die. They will do what they do best, and create whatever you get when you bring together the guys that brought us the Wii with the guys that brought us the iPod. And the world will never be the same.


That said, anyone know if Starcraft: Ghost is ever going to come out, and if so, when (to the nearest year would be fine, though I wouldn't object if you think you're within 3 years)?

 

[Meophist]

I think Apple will try to go after the living room soon. That is to say, I don't think they'll be seeking a partnership with Nintendo. Rather than that, they will try to make the home computer. Something little different from than the personal computer.

What I'm predicting is basically an iPhone that connects to your TV. All of the features, maybe a bit more, and instead of touch-screen, you'll have something similar to a remote. With pointing functionality.

You know, like a Wii.

 

[DrRosenRosen]

What about the new video cards that will take up every remaining inch of air-flow space in your ATX case for their cooling systems that require 1 kilowatt PSUs to run in SLI/Crossfire? Oh, and don't forget to buy those stand-alone physics processors this year so you can watch even more bodies crumple in unique ways without the icky mess of middleware!

 

[Limeade [deprecated]]

What about the new video cards that will take up every remaining inch of air-flow space in your ATX case for their cooling systems that require 1 kilowatt PSUs to run in SLI/Crossfire? Oh, and don't forget to buy those stand-alone physics processors this year so you can watch even more bodies crumple in unique ways without the icky mess of middleware!

Sadly, many gamers in the industry will be all over that stuff. It's the upcoming hype. Many of the major bean counting corporations, who hold the consumer leash, will exclusively use that kind of hardware for more of their mind-numbing goodness. Just another way to avoid good game design.

If Apple and Nintendo do the unimaginable...the gaming world, as we know it, will die.

Yes, but the same could be said about what happened a decade ago, when Sony got involved, then finally, Microsoft. The industry changed dramatically. Things became more "dog-eat-dog," deadlines rushed to beat the other guys, Sega leaves the console scene, et cetera. I'm not saying it's right, but things like that do happen, and industry will change. And that doesn't mean it's the end, either. Just another long chapter, until someone else comes up with a fresh idea.

I may be stepping on toes saying this, but it could possibly be good for the industry. There may be a surge in better quality control. After all, Jobs wanted the Mac to be complicated to design games for...he wanted people to take Macs "seriously."

 

[Echolocating]

My prediction will be that games will become more mature in subject matter. This will cause more lawyers and senators to protest the mature content in videogames forcing game developers/publishers to make a decision... do I try to continue making games with mature subject matter for gamers with the mental maturity of a twelve-year-old and continue marketing them to kids? ...or do I make games for adults (and not concern myself with whether or not Wal-Mart will stock the game)?

I predict this will lead to the acknowledgement of a market that craves serious adult drama in their videogames... and these games will not sacrifice anything to cater to a younger audience. Children may actually think these games are... boring. ;-)

 

[Limeade [deprecated]]

Not only Senators, but major retailors as well.

 

[dosboot]

Gamers aren't going to buy vista in 2007 because nothing is going to require DX10 for a long time. The notion that gamers will eventually buy vista because they have no choice is plausible but not gaurenteed anymore. It is possible that a large population of computer users will avoid vista entirely (forever) because of it's intrusive features/DRM.

The only prediction I feel certain about making is that Microsoft's Xbox division is going to be sitting pretty over the long term (5+ years). They are going to drive Sony out of competitiveness in the US console market in another generation or two. Sony didn't have gaming experience when they entered the market and in all this time they never gained it. On the other hand Microsoft is filled with geeks and is always going to be leaps ahead of Nintendo/Sony in understanding the gamer community because of it (e.g., Live). While Nintendo has established franchises and the premium talent to be successful in perpetuity, Sony doesn't offer anything unique to the table and still doesn't have a clue so they will falter as a result.