Metal Gear Solid 4 Needs to Sell a Million

[Andy Chalk]

Metal Gear Solid 4 Needs to Sell a Million

said [http://www.konami.jp/gs/game/mgs4/en/]the game needs to sell 1 million copies on its launch day as a result of the game's high production cost.

Big-budget games can cost between $10-$50 million to produce, according to IDC analyst Billy Pidgeon, meaning anything short of major sales success can result in a financial loss. "You might be able to weather one title coming in at 500,000 in sales," he said. "But two or three failures like that and even big publishers are going to be hurting."

Most publishers attempt to produce games for as many consoles as possible in order to widen their potential market, but Metal Gear Solid 4 is a PlayStation 3 [http://www.playstation.com]exclusive, presenting it with an even greater challenge to succeed. The comparatively low adoption rate of the console has resulted in a limited market for the game, and thus far only two PlayStation 3 games have reach the one million unit sales mark since the console's release.

There is also concern that Metal Gear Solid 4 may not have the Halo 3-like impact needed to significantly alter the fortunes of the PlayStation 3. Adam Sessler of the G4 [http://www.g4tv.com/]network said, "Metal Gear Solid 4 isn't the killer app. People who already own a PS3 will likely get it. But it doesn't have that kind of broad-based appeal."


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[Katana314]

Not the killer app? Man, I DO hope this game doesn't turn out as a flop. Even as an FPS fan, I saw a lot of features added to this game that I was really liking. Let's see...how many PS3s have been sold, total?...I'm gonna wait for a definitive source, but google results don't look too positive,

 

[MrKeroChan]

maybe if they throw in the deluxe force feedback codpiece?

 

[Ranzel]

That's to bad, because for some reason I really doubt it's going to sell 1 million. I think your either a die-hard fan and have played all the Metal Gears, or your not a fan at all. There seems to be no middle ground.

But, I could be wrong. If they sell 1 million copies, good for them. This isn't an attempt to hate on the PS3, but they don't have a single game out now or coming out in the future that makes me want to have it.

 

[GrowlersAtSea]

That might not be too bad a goal.

From the sales figures I've seen, around 6 million Playstation 3's have been sold so far. You can guess by the time Metal Gear Solid 4 comes out, based on the sales and Holiday Season, there will probably be a good 9 or 10 million consoles out there (assuming it continues to follow the same pattern of the 360). Selling a copy to 10% of the Playstation 3 owners doesn't sound so bad.

By comparison, Halo 3 sold something around 2.5 million copies on it's first day, when the 360 had somewhere around 12 to 13 million consoles out there. So you can roughly guess that about 20% of the 360 owners picked up a copy immediately.

So, they want around half of Halo 3's relative success. That doesn't sound too outrageous, but stealth games like Metal Gear Solid have less appeal than First Person Shooters, and I doubt Metal Gear Solid will have the media saturation that Halo 3 did, which was amazing (and somewhat annoying) by any standard. So it might be a bit of a stretch.

Due to the heavy numbers here, it's probably prudent to share sources.

http://www.joystiq.com/2007/09/28/gamedaily-estimates-halo-3-sold-2-48-mil-units-day-one/
http://www.firingsquad.com/news/newsarticle.asp?searchid=18037
http://www.gamedaily.com/articles/news/ps3-celebrates-its-first-birthday-56-million-sold/18572?&ncid=AOLGAM000500000000016

 

[propertyofcobra]

Warning. Ignore my post entirely. I repeat, ignore it. This is your last warning.


Dear, dear me. It's sad, isn't it, that truly extraordinary games like the Metal Gear series (and hopefully 4 with it) almost always sell less well than brain-dead suckfests like Halo and it's bastard spawn.

And yeah, MGS4 is probably not a "killer app" for PS3, it lacks extremely rabid fans who proclaim it the only game ever to play, it lacks extreme overhype, it lacks "gaming fuel", and it's for a console that's both powerful and DOESN'T stop working just to screw with you.
This all, plus the opportunity to spend hours hearing a twelve year old yell obscene things about your mom as he pushes his scrotum into your mouth, is apparently what passes for a killer app within the gaming industry these days.
(Good god I'm happy I'm a PS3 owner. Xbox fans can play their cute mediocre shooters all they want. I get freaking Metal Gear Solid.
And, having a good PC, I can play all the mediocre 360 shooters, but BETTER, aside the most recent one. And that one's just a matter of time.)

MGS4, I pray thou will sell a million copies on the release date. I pray it'll cause people to see the light. I doubt it will, but I will hope against hope nonetheless.
Metal Gear, may you and other intelligent, innovative game series never die. May you shine on as an example of what to be, and may people see games such as Halo and Gears of War for what they really are. (Namely, if videogames are literature, Halo and Gears of War would be second-rate comic books that blatantly rip better comic books but somehow become freakishly popular, much to the disgust of most literature fans with an ounce of refinement)

Aah, there. Now I feel much better.


Anyway, huh. That's interesting, I hope they succeed in their goal.

 

[Andy Chalk]

Whatever else happens, increasingly ludicrous development costs mean we are almost certainly witnessing the end of days for console exclusivity from third-party developers. One million units at launch would probably be a breeze if 360 and PC gamers (and maybe Wii, too) were part of the equation.

 

[Arbre]

Big-budget games can cost between $10-$50 million to produce, according to IDC analyst Billy Pidgeon...

I thought it was $10-$15 million?

 

[KurtNiisan]

PS3 owners, combine your powers!
I have only played the first MGS (and the first Zone of Enders) and am not one of the people who have been sucked into the sheer Awesomeness that is Kojima, but even I will be buying MGS4. From what I've seen, the quality of the game is superb.

 

[arcstone]

...well, I guess thats what you get for putting the price tag of a kings ransom on your console. :|

 

[Katana314]

Yknow, this HAS sort of made me realizing something. Me, and many of my friends, have always condemned those unwilling to extend a release date (EA). Kojima seems perfectly willing when the game needs more work. However, I think that may be what has contributed to the amazingly high budget of this game.
Two sides to the coin...

 

[kusarigama [deprecated]]

Actually, after looking through forums and talking to friends, I know a lot of people who are waiting for MGS4 before getting a PS3. It may not have the same appeal to the casual audience as games like Halo 3, but a lot of hardcore gamers hold it in a really high regard.

I've heard a lot of people saying that this statement is basically assurance for a 360 port of this game, but I think that's a load of bullshit, despite the high costs.
1. Sony would never let this game go multi-plat.
2. Ryan Payton, who made this comment, has said on several occasions that this game is not going to be ported.
3. A port to the 360, which has a competely different architecture, could very well suffer the same maladies that the PS3 is having with some poorly made ports, and would cost even more money, a risk they may not want to take.
4. I'm going out on a limb here, but it may be that this game wouldn't be possible on the 360, either because of the limitations of DVD or a number of other things. Kojima has been known to push consoles to the limit, and with the ridiculous amount of money that's being poured into this game, I'm pretty sure it's gonna show up in the game.

 

[JamesW]

So, they want around half of Halo 3's relative success. That doesn't sound too outrageous, but stealth games like Metal Gear Solid have less appeal than First Person Shooters, and I doubt Metal Gear Solid will have the media saturation that Halo 3 did, which was amazing (and somewhat annoying) by any standard. So it might be a bit of a stretch.

More importantly, it's a game that relies even more heavily on plot (and therefore existing continuity) than Halo 3, which can be enjoyed as a fun blaster if you skip the cutscenes, or as a multiplayer game in of itself (an element that many of the reviews played up).

Still, I imagine that the numbers of people interested in MGS4 are surely high enough for it to just about clip 1 million on the opening weekend.

 

[PurpleRain]

I've never played a MGS game before. I watched a movie for this game on youtube and I didn't understand what the hell was going on. Even if it does come to 360 I probably wouldn't buy it because I'd need all the back story as well.

 

[Copter400]

Certainly hope it does for Sony's sake. While I do not own a PS3, and I have no intention to own a PS3, I recognize its advantages as a console and it certainly doesn't deserve to be dicontinued due to Sony's craptacular launches (horrible launch titles, making about five PS3's overall). MGS is a solid brand and might be what the PS3 needs.

 

[PurpleRain]

The question really is, is there one million MGS die-hard fans out there?