Analysts Unimpressed By Ten Million Xbox Sales

[Andy Chalk]

Analysts Unimpressed By Ten Million Xbox Sales

Major industry analysts have reacted with indifference to the news that Xbox 360 [http://www.microsoft.com]systems in the U.S.

In announcing the sales milestone, Don Mattrick, Microsoft's senior vice president of interactive entertainment, claimed the mark represented a major and possibly decisive blow in the console wars. "This year will be the largest in the history of the videogame industry, with Xbox 360 leading the charge in the US and abroad," he said. "History has shown us that the first company to reach ten million in console sales wins the generation battle."

But several analysts quoted by Janco Partners [http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=10485&Itemid=2].

"It's unclear to us if Microsoft considers the Wii [http://www.wii.com]console from Nintendo to be a competitive product, but we expect the Wii's installed base will likely eclipse the Xbox 360's installed base in CY08, and eventually win the console war by a wide margin," he said. Hickey added that if Nintendo had been able to meet consumer demand for the Wii, he had "no doubt" the system would have beaten the Xbox 360 to the ten million mark in the U.S.

"I guess getting to ten million units first is one of the benefits of launching a year before your competition," said Lazard Capital Markets [http://www.lazardcapitalmarkets.com/] analyst Colin Sebastian, who agreed with Hickey that the Wii would pull ahead of the Xbox 360. "Based on unit sell-through trends, it would appear that the Wii is positioned to surpass the 360 installed base down the road."

Michael Pachter of Wedbush Morgan [http://www.wedbush.com]added his voice to the chorus, saying simply, "Nintendo will pass them this month."


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[Skrapt]

I think they're right, the Xbox 360 was released earlier so it's more likely to have more sales. And it's rather stupid to try and announce victory in the next gen console war right now...

With PS3 sales in Europe surpassing the Xbox 360, and Wii sales constantly going up. I think when someone down the road compares the life of first 3 years of each console, they'll see very similar trends in the Xbox 360 and PS3 sales, and higher Wii sales. Since you can't really compare 2 similar products released at different times since the market changes a lot, so it's more scientific to compare each consoles first 3+ years since their release. Otherwise you're comparing the xbox 360 after 4 years, the PS3 after 3 etc. which throws results way off.

I mean come on, how can Don Mattrick even begin to think the Xbox 360 has won this generation war, since there's a lot of battles still to be played out. And I think this may be the first generation where there is no obviously dominant console, and people chose on what suits them since all 3 consoles have different pros/cons.

 

[ingsoc]

In terms of install base, most reports I have read expect the PS3 to eventually win this generation, but not by nearly as much as the previous two generations.

 

[the_tramp]

I find it hard to even compare a Wii to a Xbox360 or PS3 simply due to it's target audience. Of course the Wii will sell more, and to be honest I commend Microsoft for even telling the world. Of course their sales will be dwarfed by the Wii but then again I don't classify them as the same.

 

[Skrapt]

I find it hard to even compare a Wii to a Xbox360 or PS3 simply due to it's target audience. Of course the Wii will sell more, and to be honest I commend Microsoft for even telling the world. Of course their sales will be dwarfed by the Wii but then again I don't classify them as the same.

They may not be similar, but they are competing in the same market which makes them competitors, when the Wii is selling more it detracts from 360 and PS3 sales, which puts it in direct competition and should therefore be included in the statistics. And Microsoft announcing they've won shouldn't be commended, the console war is going to play out for a long time and depends on future technology, and usually when people announce victory this early they get trampled later on (Karma? hehe).

 

[ZippyDSMlee]

The PS3 is way too expensive, people want cheap and gimmicky, like the Wii.

20-30 months you'll see a 100$ price cut if not not more, they really should lower it now just to show potential devs and pubs they are doing well, the industry prefers the grphic goddess over anything, altho as of yet devs have not been moving to one of the other..

the 360 unless its overhauled and even if it is will fall to last place in as little as 15 months, more likely 20 tho.

In terms of install base, most reports I have read expect the PS3 to eventually win this generation, but not by nearly as much as the previous two generations.

The only trouble with that logic there are more lite gamers to non gamers in the statistics this makes the attach rate slightly unpredictable how many of them will keep it past 3 games, how many non uber casual non gamer focused games will sale, also the industry has yet to embrace the WII EA will port down to it but not many else.

The PS3 is the more likely one to dominate in 2+ years, the WII while a nice console is still a niche console even more than the PS3/360 IMO since it lacks real games and a handfull of them do not count....

 

[Skrapt]

The PS3 is way too expensive, people want cheap and gimmicky, like the Wii.

20-30 months you'll see a 100$ price cut if not not more, they really should lower it now just to show potential devs and pubs they are doing well, the industry prefers the grphic goddess over anything, altho as of yet devs have not been moving to one of the other..

the 360 unless its overhauled and even if it is will fall to last place in as little as 15 months, more likely 20 tho.

This, and the PS3 is cheaper then the Xbox 360 if you intend on keeping your new console for more then a year.

 

[richasr]

Why does it have to be a war? or even a competition? There are plenty units of each console going around so it's not as if one will be driven into the ground because it came in 3rd.

It's quite obvious that the 360 has gotten there first because it was released a year in advance of the competition, doesn't take some hot-shot analyst to figure that out.

Also, is the Wii really even in the same bracket as the PS3 and 360? it's an entirely different platform and experience than either console, it's technically inferior (not necessarily a bad thing) and a lot of games released for the PC, 360 and PS3 aren't even considered for the Wii.

All I know is, I currently have a 360 which I love, i'm planning on getting a PS3 sometime this summer, and I love playing games. It should only matter what you prefer to play.

 

[ZippyDSMlee]

richasr
Human nature? Hell industry nature even, without knowing or seeing what is doing better one cannot guess where devs/pubs and the the games they make go, one can reasonably assume most high level mainstream games targeted to gamers casual or not will not be on the WII, just for the shear fact that most devs are not going to overhaul their porting routines to port down to it.

Now with that said the PS3 seems to have beyond 3 years locked up at the very least locked into 2nd place, while the WIIs trend bubble will deflate some leaving it either number 1 or number 2 its hard to guess if the industry will flock to it, the 360 days are numbered unless they unlock the HDD and stuck a BR drive in it without raising its price.

If MS puts BR into it and leaves the overt locks alone as long as they plan to let devs chose to dev BR tiles it will move the 360 forward, most devs wont make a BR 360 title and those that do will either try and sale on that status or as a collectors setup,MS dose not need to lower the requirements for 360 gaming anymore than they have been....

I like games to I however am disenfranchised with the lack of quality in them at such a high price and the 360 is more a glorified niche PC market than anything else...I'd rather sell my soul to MS and pay 15 a month to play 360 titles on my PC than fool with getting another easy break oven.....
now if th easy break oven comes with BR and makes cookies I just might buy in again

The WII and PS3 are nice but not worth the price, managed to rent one from a friend and went in half way on the the other all in all the focus to the zombie casuals is up to a point it makes me sick there are good games out there but not like 10 years ago... the perportion is all out of whack for the price of admittance.

 

[xMacx]

In terms of install base, most reports I have read expect the PS3 to eventually win this generation, but not by nearly as much as the previous two generations.

Which reports are you reading? (I don't mean that sarcastically - in actuality, what reports have you read that predict that?)

 

[the_tramp]

They may not be similar, but they are competing in the same market which makes them competitors, when the Wii is selling more it detracts from 360 and PS3 sales, which puts it in direct competition and should therefore be included in the statistics.

Whilst I agree with this, and it is a valid point. People are buying a Wii as a family entertainment system are unlikely to have ever bought something else if it were not available. A relative of mine bought a Wii for their family so that they could play it together, but are unlikely to have bought an Xbox360 or PS3 if the Wii hadn't been available. Therefore a Wii sale does not necessarily mean an Xbox/PS3 loss of sale.

 

[ZippyDSMlee]

They may not be similar, but they are competing in the same market which makes them competitors, when the Wii is selling more it detracts from 360 and PS3 sales, which puts it in direct competition and should therefore be included in the statistics.

Whilst I agree with this, and it is a valid point. People are buying a Wii as a family entertainment system are unlikely to have ever bought something else if it were not available. A relative of mine bought a Wii for their family so that they could play it together, but are unlikely to have bought an Xbox360 or PS3 if the Wii hadn't been available. Therefore a Wii sale does not necessarily mean an Xbox/PS3 loss of sale.

this makes me wonder if it can have a solid attract rate because families will by 2-5 party games and be done with it.

 

[Arbre]

"History has shown us that the first company to reach ten million in console sales wins the generation battle."

Is it just me, or is totally dumb to talk about 'history' in a period where games are launching with bigger fanfare and sales than movies?

+++

I just hope the consoles wind up in staggered generations for a couple of cycles. Wouldn't that be nice, if the Xbox 720 came out in the middle of the PS3's lifecycle, and the PS4 came out in the middle of the Xbox 720's lifecycle, with the Wii successors all over the calendar? If every 2-3 years we had a new console hitting the market, yet once you bought that console it had a 5-7 year lifespan?

It is totally dumb. Parameters change, and it's much likely that this threshold should be tens of percents higher.

The PS3 hasn't even entered her biggest period, when major hits come to fruition. The 360 has already crossed that line.

By the time of Moore, the communication made more sense. I think we found a new Kutaragi.

Count the letters:

Ken Kutaragi: 3 + 8
Don Mattrick: 3 + 8

 

[Jake Lockley]

I'd like to know how units have shipped, broken down by sales and replacements for defective units. I know one person who has gone through 5 already.

 

[lacktheknack]

I know this is REEEEALLY old news, but I can't help but look at this and snicker. Hard. Poor Microsoft, if only they knew the truth...