Guitar Hero Reaches its Sales Peak

[Jared Rea]

Guitar Hero Reaches its Sales Peak

Analyst Jesse Devinch says that while games like Guitar Hero and Rock Band will remain profitable for another decade, sales appear to have hit the ceiling.

Electronic Entertainment Design and Research (November 2008 retail sales report [http://www.eedar.com/] claims that Activision's immensely popular Guitar Hero series is "reaching its peak," and is predicting a more than 50 percent drop in series-over-series numbers in the upcoming NPD Group report.

The report (which also features some glum news for fellow publishing giants Electronic Arts and THQ) follows the already low numbers [http://www.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/87539-World-Tour-Sales-Half-of-Guitar-Hero-III] (for Guitar Hero anyway) for the recently released Guitar Hero: World Tour, which in series-over-series sales dropped by more than 60 percent in the month of October. While Activision was not able to meet the initial demand for the full-band bundle, sticker shock played a factor in the lagging sales as well.

When Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock was released last year, it was met with full-blown Guitar Hero hysteria, with the price conscience PlayStation 2 and Nintendo Wii versions leading the charge on the charts for months to come. What's worse is that despite the supply constraints, Ebay resellers are having a tough time selling their bundles, forcing them to sell at less than the retail value ($189), "a strong indication that demand and supply are currently in equilibrium," claims Divnich.

Hope has not yet been lost in the decade-old modern rhythm genre, as Divnich speaks for the EEDAR in saying, "We expect Guitar Hero and Rock Band releases for the next 10 years as they will always have a large and loyal market base." Divnich points to Konami and its Dance Dance Revolution series as a prime example of a franchise that has been around the block more than a few times, reached its peak years ago and is still able to be a profitable.


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[bad rider]

I'm sorry I cant afford to spend £148.80 (http://www.amazon.co.uk/Guitar-Hero-World-Tour-Bundle/dp/B001EO702C). Oh yeah just took a look yet again the american version is cheaper.

 

[Dragonrabbit]

I think we'll probably start to see people buying the disc by itself instead of the full bundle, I mean once you have a full set of drums, 2 guitars, and a mic, why buy more peripherals?

 

[Echolocating]

It might also have something to do with the concept of it being a party game. You need a group of friends that can commit to the game at the same time. Couple that with a larger price tag and you'll probably create a scenario where one person might supply the game to a much larger group of people, who then don't feel the need to buy the game because... what would that really accomplish when you need to be together anyway? Guitar Hero III is more of a single player game (and a lot cheaper, of course) and that is most likely why more people bought it.

If I ran the zoo, I'd build a more unique single player experience for the series. Honestly, there's a lot of unexplored territory in the Guitar Hero genre.

 

[Virgil]

I suspect this may have just as much to do with how Activision is cranking out Guitar Hero branded titles at a pace that makes Madden look slow as it does with the price. And, in general, the quality has dropped as well - Harmonix simply does better work in this genre, and I think you're starting to see the backlash from the quality drop between Guitar Hero II and III.

They're killing their own brand, one game at a time.