Analyst Predicts PS3 Price Drop in April

[John Funk]

Analyst Predicts PS3 Price Drop in April

In a fresh new year, it's time for a fresh new round of predicting that Sony will drop the price of the PS3 - starting with one analyst who believes the console will see a dramatic cut this April.

Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter is anticipating that Sony will slash the price of the 80GB PS3 by $100, bringing it down to $299. Microsoft will follow suit in June, Pachter believes, with a $50 cut to the price of the Xbox 360 Pro - but the juggernaut that is the Wii will hold stable. Of course, you don't have to be an analyst to see that Nintendo has absolutely no reason to cut prices with the Wii barreling along, selling like hotcakes (that are made out of heroin).

"Once the PS3 is at a more affordable price point, we think that sales of that device will once again begin to grow," said Pachter.

Let's look at this from both sides, shall we? On the one hand, yes, it's true that the PS3 is in last place worldwide this generation by a comfortable margin [http://www.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/88472-PS3-Sales-Up-130-Xbox-Hits-28-Million], and Sony desperately needs to do something to jumpstart sales. Sure, Killzone 2 is right around the corner, but ... color me skeptical, but it feels like we've heard this refrain before. If Metal Gear Solid 4 and LittleBigPlanet couldn't pull the PS3 out of its slump, I remain unconvinced that KZ2 can. Sure, I've no doubt that PS3 owners will be glad to have the game, but I don't see it being as much of a potential console-mover as MGS4 was.

Furthermore, I don't think anyone would really deny that the Xbox 360's lower price was at least a contributing factor in Microsoft moving more units than Sony did in 2008 - especially in an era when people are trying to become thriftier and cut unnecessary luxury costs. So yes, the argument that Sony needs to cut the price of the PS3 certainly holds water.

On the other hand, it seems like analysts have been predicting another PS3 price drop every other week for months on end now - and SKU juggling aside, those predictions haven't really materialized. Sony has firmly stated that its goal for 2009 is to make a profit, and dropping the price (without a corresponding drop in costs) just seems like it'd make an already tough objective even tougher.

(Image [http://flickr.com/photos/cheesepicklescheese/419050330/])


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[sirdanrhodes]

I don't see it...

 

[Anton P. Nym]

I don't see it...

Me neither. Sony's still taking a big loss on the hardware costs right now, and with the whole firm dipping into red ink I can't see them eating more of a loss to move more units. Of course, they do need to move more units to increase software sales...

All I have to say is that I'm glad I'm not the guy who has to make these decisions.

-- Steve

 

[Uncompetative]

It would make more sense for Sony to wait until it had more AAA exclusives. That could be as much as 18 months.

After all, you don't want to sell hardware with a projected 10 year lifespan at a substantial loss in a global recession.

The 18 months thing is based on my intuition that there will be an Xbox 1080 on the horizon before PS3 gets any kind of a foothold. Microsoft have deep pockets and would be prepared to replace the 360 earlier than expected for two reasons:

- the design fault which causes the RROD, expensive 3-year extended warranty and erosion of 'good will' amongst its customers
- to ensure that they at least have previews of 1080 games that out-captivate any second-generation PS3 exclusives

They do not want:

- people to have to buy a plain old 360 when their current machine RROD's outside of its 3-year warranty as they may well buy a PS3
- people to think the 360 has been overshadowed by the PS3, the only way to escape this negative comparison is to 'invert it'

i.e. in about 18 months

360 < PS3 < 1080

Note: Sony haven't established the PS3 with MGS4 as it is more a movie than a game and LBP though good is appealing to Nintendo's market rather than the 20-something Playstation generation. I don't see KZ2 helping either as their gamepad isn't as precise as the 360's for aiming.

 

[Dizzy Day]

360 < PS3 in 18 months?

No way, in my opinion Xbox has out shined PS3 in almost all aspects of gaming, sure it lacks Blu-Ray and Live costs £40 a year but its worth it. Dono if its diffrent else where but 360 defiatley dominates where I live(Narnia).

 

[Vlane]

360 < PS3 in 18 months?

No way, in my opinion Xbox has out shined PS3 in almost all aspects of gaming, sure it lacks Blu-Ray and Live costs £40 a year but its worth it. Dono if its diffrent else where but 360 defiatley dominates where I live(Narnia).

Doesn't Live cost 50 bucks a year?

Anyway the PS3 actually sold better than the 360 and the PS3 will have more sold units in 18 months (probably).

 

[destroyer2k]

Anton P. Nym

You and others forgot that sony will get 45nm cell procesor in mas production and a few others thing will get different.

 

[John Funk]

Doesn't Live cost 50 bucks a year?

Anyway the PS3 actually sold better than the 360 and the PS3 will have more sold units in 18 months (probably).

In the states, sure. Different across the pond

All the numbers I've seen suggest the 360 just widened its lead over the PS3 in 2008 - where are you getting your figures from?

 

[Uncompetative]

360 < PS3 in 18 months?

No way, in my opinion Xbox has out shined PS3 in almost all aspects of gaming, sure it lacks Blu-Ray and Live costs £40 a year but its worth it. Dono if its diffrent else where but 360 defiatley dominates where I live(Narnia).

I'm on my third 360 and am happy with it. However if it broke outside of the extended warranty period a fourth time I wouldn't get a PS3 or Wii, but wait for confirmation that the next Xbox console was fully backwards compatible. I'm not expecting a revolutionary advance, just more reliability and a larger hard-drive as standard with an option for a second removable one for media/downloads. This internal hard-drive on all 1080 models would mean that there was no equivalent to the 'Arcade' and developers could create MMOs and persistent gameworlds as if they were programming for a PC.

I certainly don't think that Sony will beat Microsoft in games sold. Hardware sales are largely irrelevant when both consoles are sold at a loss.

Weirdly, I hope I'm wrong. As there will be a lot of people who have spent a lot of money on the 'promise' of next-generation gaming with the PS3 and are patiently waiting for it to deliver. They have a long wait and the recession may dissuade publishers from backing exclusives for the PS3, preferring to use middleware to develop much the same game on the PS3 and 360. At this point PS3 ownership will rely upon people watching their small Blu-ray collections for the umpteenth time and we'll start hearing how you don't get 'Extras' like Directorial Commentaries on Sky+ HD.

Note:

in 18 months

360 < PS3 < 1080

is the same as saying:

1080 > PS3

and no one will stop to make the other comparison...

 

[Smokescreen]

If Sony had been serious about moving hardware, they would've dropped the price in October of '08.

I like my PS3 and Little Big Planet is an amazing game, but so was MGs4 and Resistance 2--and there was a kind of large 'meh' from the audience.

This may change soon with HDTVs coming down in price as the digital signal becomes the only one, and people are compelled to get new TVs. (Converter boxes...well, meh.) But with those TVs Blu-Ray becomes something you can actually see the difference on, I suppose.

Personally, I hate the blu-ray thing b/c it's just pushing more shit we don't need, in order to re-buy things we already have.

Anyway; without 1) a solid software lineup (which really is there) 2) an online connective experience (Home just got thrashed, and I have no desire to even wander in there. LBP is fun with 2+ players but for some reason my connection has trouble, even though my Live experience has been pretty soild...) and 3) a lower price point, I don't see how Sony will be able to step it up.

 

[Jumplion]

Doesn't Live cost 50 bucks a year?

Anyway the PS3 actually sold better than the 360 and the PS3 will have more sold units in 18 months (probably).

In the states, sure. Different across the pond

All the numbers I've seen suggest the 360 just widened its lead over the PS3 in 2008 - where are you getting your figures from?

I don't know, where the hell are you getting your figures from? ; Seriously, where's anyone getting their figures from? It was the other way around last time I heard it.

And what's up with the analysts? I don't trust analysts even if they could "analyze" when my life expectancy is. If it drops in price, it drops in price, you don't need a stinkin' analyst to "predict" when Sony will "drop it's price".

 

[shatnershaman]

Why April? Isn't God of War 3 suppose to come out in March? Then again I guess you could argue that you suck the extra $100 out of the GOW fans then lower the price like the Apple did with the iPhone.

 

[Chickenlittle]

I'm just curious here. Why did these so-called "analysts" choose April as the time for a price decrease? If that's the case, it just seems like Sony trying to scratch the PS3 out of the coffin from the inside. Granted, it's not buried, and getting sharper nails, but still in a coffin.

 

[duchaked]

360 < PS3 in 18 months?

No way, in my opinion Xbox has out shined PS3 in almost all aspects of gaming, sure it lacks Blu-Ray and Live costs £40 a year but its worth it. Dono if its diffrent else where but 360 defiatley dominates where I live(Narnia).

the 360 is doing real well where I am (USA, lol sorry not Narnia) but so is the Wii
well, the PS3 owners here are pretty mean, but they're always on the defense

I want a PS3 for blu-ray in the near future, but I'm not missing out in terms of gaming (price drop would be wonderful)

 

[oliveira8]

Good thing you revived this thread cause right in the fist page theres a news thread that says that "People that want PS3 price drop out can fock off!".(doesnt reall say that...)

 

[scotth266]

Meh. I see this argument from both sides, but I'm in favor with the crowd thinking that these are just rumors. The PS3 is already losing money, and to drop the price further w/o cutting some hardware out of the thing would be a bad idea...

 

[Jumplion]

This article is in January people. Let's not revive this already, especially since we already have that "other" thread.

 

[nova18]

I doubt a price drop will come that early.
The price drops will start when production costs decrease due to accessibility of components, which will allow Sony to sell consoles for less because they can make them for less.

In the long-term, Sony has actually played it clever, it just wont be apparent until the PS3 starts to see some global success.