Pachter: No New Consoles Before 2013

Andy Chalk

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Nov 12, 2002
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Pachter: No New Consoles Before 2013


Industry analyst Michael Pachter says he doesn't expect a new generation of consoles to appear before 2013, primarily because game publishers don't want to invest in new technology before they've had a chance to fully capitalize on the current generation.

"We do not expect a 'new' console in 2010 (other than the long-rumored high definition Wii [http://www.wii.com], which is likely to upgrade the Wii to current console technology)," Pachter said in a recent industry newsletter. "We do not expect the 'next' generation to begin before 2013, if at all. We remain convinced that the publishers will resist the introduction of any videogame hardware technology that requires a refresh of software, as the publishers have as yet to capitalize on the immense investments made in being competitive in the current cycle."

Pachter's statement comes on the heels of investor concern that videogame sales for the current generation have peaked and will now begin to slide as anticipation for new hardware builds. He said declines in Grand Theft Auto IV [http://www.npd.com/] in April.

"We therefore think it is likely that the 'next' generation will begin after 2013, meaning that software sales are likely to grow by a compounded annual rate of 6-10 percent for another five years," he continued. "Because R&D costs are likely to flatten out with the benefits of a learning curve, we expect earnings leverage as the publishers are able to exploit R&D investments. In brief, we think that investors have it wrong so far this cycle, and think that investment in videogame publishers will bear fruit for many years."

But his advice flies in the face of a statement by Ubisoft [http://www.ubi.com] CEO Yves Guillemot, who suggested last week that his company was already gearing up for the next round of console releases. "We need to get ready for the future generation of consoles," he said. "In the next few years, there will be new home and handheld consoles, and if you don't invest... you will not be able to cope with both [current and next-gen consoles]."

Source: Gamasutra [http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=23440]


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Frizzle

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Handheld consols, maybe. Base consols? I somehow doubt I'd be buying one if it came out in 2013. Hell I haven't even had my PS3 for a year yet. I think that maybe after deveolopers get over the "OH WOW GRAPHICS!" moment, we might get some good games that will increase sales that keeps everyone happy.

I'd really like to see a huge improvement on the PSP though. Has so much potential...
 

The Shade

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Changin' your tune now, eh Pachter? First, you say there won't be another console generation. Now you're just delaying it.

Maybe a little Ubisoft initiative has given you pause for thought, hmm?
 

randommaster

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People are still "enojying" the console wars for this generation, also, there doesn't seem to be anything a new generation can offer besides better graphics.

If Sony and MS stick to their plan. any ne wconsoles released in the next couple of years will probably just be more powerful with the addition of added media player functionality.
 

randommaster

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The Shade said:
Changin' your tune now, eh Pachter? First, you say there won't be another console generation. Now you're just delaying it.

Maybe a little Ubisoft initiative has given you pause for thought, hmm?
Saying there will never be a new console generation is kind of foolish, but a new console is not necessarily a new generation.

EDIT: sorry about the double post.
 

munx13

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Dec 17, 2008
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If this is true, PC gaming is gona dominate (due to small hardware limitations)


Frizzle said:
Handheld consols, maybe. Base consols? I somehow doubt I'd be buying one if it came out in 2013. Hell I haven't even had my PS3 for a year yet. I think that maybe after deveolopers get over the "OH WOW GRAPHICS!" moment, we might get some good games that will increase sales that keeps everyone happy.

I'd really like to see a huge improvement on the PSP though. Has so much potential...
PSP is not realy that limited hardware wise, what it needs is software.
 

KDR_11k

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Hahaha, first I thought he finally found a clue but then he talks about an HD Wii. Like Nintendo would throw away their 50 million userbase (the Wii's software is statically linked to all the drivers and such so it's not possible to make an HD Wii without requiring entirely new games to be made) and start anew with a system that does absolutely nothing new for their audience.

You know what? Nintendo is already releasing their high definition Wii. In 2009. It's called the Motion Plus and adds high definition to the Wii's primary selling point, the motion controls and does so with a 20$ upgrade. The Wii's graphics aren't its selling point because graphics don't sell much anymore so why would they bother making them more powerful and expensive?

Mazty said:
Going to be interesting how they manage to stretch console lifespans out that long.
The PS3 seems to be doing fine, but room for improvement in comparison to PC games. The 360 is having DVD issues, and the wii is having quality issues, not to mention it's tech was pretty much outdated before it was released.
Nobody cares about the improvement anymore. Nobody gives a fuck whether a console is topped out or has potential left (never mind that a console is NEVER topped out, there's always some new method that gets found to squeeze a bit more out of it). It doesn't matter if they improve the graphics throughout the generation because they've got good enough already, people stopped caring about further increases while increases cost a ton of money.
 

chronobreak

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I really hope my 360 makes it that far, but alas, the noises that come out of that thing sometimes echo like a death rattle. Good thing I have my trusty DS!
 

KDR_11k

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Mazty said:
I'm pretty sure that's not the general consensus of both gamers and developers.
Not what they say but what they do.

Considering graphics are a very long way off being photo-realistic, I don't think anyone would mind better graphics.
Wouldn't mind, no, but also wouldn't mind less. Turns out people will buy games even with less than HD graphics just fine and the 2.5 times cost increase in making the graphics better yields only a neglible increase in sales.

But it's not just graphics, it's also game size. To have a larger world, you need more memory simply.
Depends. Most "huge" games only have a tiny fraction of the world in play at a time so it doesn't matter how much the system can hold in memory as long as the immediate surroundings fit.

And I think almost everyone would prefer large games with good graphics as opposed to large games with last-gen graphics.
Except for the people who foot the bill. There's a noticeable trend among HD games to be fairly short on content (often using padding like copy-paste level design/repeating older levels in reverse order) since the necessary detail for a given amount of world has increased MASSIVELY. A huge game with great graphics cost a LOT more than one with weaker graphics and while people would go for the prettier one with all things being equal few would refuse to buy if only the less pretty one was on offer and many would go for the less pretty one if it's better in other ways (and if it's just the price).

Given the choice between two pretty games and five less pretty games, which would you take?
 

XJ-0461

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Makes sense to me. It feels like the PS3 has been around for a very short space of time.
 

Rusty Bucket

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Mazty said:
Rusty Bucket said:
Mazty said:
The 360 is having DVD issues
Have you got a source for that? I've seen you say it loads, just wondering where you got it from.
Yeah, ID games have had to scale Rage back significantly due to the 360 & thats also putting it on 2 DVDs. Then they also commented on saying the problem with that is production costs increase significantly the more discs you use, leading the 360 to become a rather unattractive console to develop for.
With games always getting larger, by 2010, I can't see there being many more games for the 360. It may be ignorance, but I'm not actually aware of many large upcoming exclusives for the 360 this year.
That's fair enough. I wouldn't say it makes it unnatractive to develop for though. Sure, you can't do the same stuff on a 360 than you can on a PS3, but there's games out now that fit fine on DVD, are fun to play and have sold well. It just means you can't do as much with it, which would be a problem if 90% of game developers weren't scared of trying new things.
 

IrrelevantTangent

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I'm glad, personally, because that means my Xbox 360 will actually be worth something for a long, long time before I have to spend $300-400 on a WHOLE NEW FRAKKIN' SYSTEM. And people have been saying this might be the last cycle of consoles....I can only hope so.....