Analyst Ups Predictions for Kinect Shipments

[Logan Westbrook]

Analyst Ups Predictions for Kinect Shipments

Market analyst Colin Sebastian has amended his predictions about Kinect, saying that Microsoft is being much more aggressive than he expected.

Sebastian, an analyst for Lazard Capital Markets, has increased his estimates [http://www.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/101430-Analyst-Predicts-3-Million-Kinects-Shipped-This-Year] for Kinect [http://www.amazon.com/Kinect-Sensor-Adventures-Xbox-360/dp/B002BSA298/ref=sr_tr_2?ie=UTF8&s=videogames&qid=1281646241&sr=8-2] shipments from three to four million units, after discovering that Microsoft was manufacturing the peripheral at a faster rate than previously believed.

Sebastian said that the increased production suggests a more aggressive launch plan for Kinect than his firm had expected, and believes that the Microsoft will heavily weight its holiday shipments of Xbox 360s towards bundles including Kinect. He also said that the quantities may indicate that Microsoft plans to do some kind of price promotion in 2011.

Sebastian anticipates a "significant advertising blitz" before the release of the device in November, and thinks that sales of Sony's Move, which launches a month sooner, may prove a useful barometer for Kinect's success, despite, he said, not having the same retail buzz.

Units shipped obviously isn't the same as units sold, and without more information on exactly how the units will be allocated, it's hard to know what to make of this increased production. It certainly seems like Microsoft is giving Kinect a big push, but we won't know whether it has been really successful until well into the new year.

Source: Edge [http://www.next-gen.biz/news/analyst-raises-kinect-shipment-forecast]



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[GeneticallyModifiedDucks]

If it's just for units shipped, then why do we even care? Kinect might as well suffer the same fate as E.T. for the Atari 2600. Actually that would be pretty awesome, now that I think about it.

 

[Dioxide20]

At least it's not a Wii release. God that was terrible (and brilliant) for Nintendo. Maybe if Microsoft is serious about supporting Kinect, like this shows, it might not turn out to be to bad...

 

[Alone Disciple]

Interesting.

I kinda understand why Microsoft is pushing this a bit more. I think they realize that the $149 price point compared to Sony's Move at $49.99 may be a harder sell at Xmas, especially with the push that Nintendo is making for some of its strong franchises (Kirby, Zelda, etc) also up for the holiday's.

Is it that Microsoft is pushing to really get ahead and snap up the market early, or is it that MS realizes its release titles for Kinect are currently 'meh' at best.

Even the most recent issue of OXM said that while they saw a handful of titles in action, none fo the writers felt overwhelmed or super excited about any one title. There seemed to be an attitude of some of the games for Kinect where eitehr kiddie fodder or 'been there, done that' (talking about the sports and fitness titles). Personally, after reding the articles myself, there's noting driving me to be an early adopter of Kinect.

To think, it's only about 2-3 months away from release and I'm not sure anyone actually knows a lot about any of these launch titles. That scares me as if MS may secretly know that their the games aren't going to live up to the hype, therefor they are gonna push the heck out of it anyway with the idea that if you have, the games will come.

I'm still on the fence with Kinect myself.

 

[Breaker deGodot]

If it's just for units shipped, then why do we even care? Kinect might as well suffer the same fate as E.T. for the Atari 2600. Actually that would be pretty awesome, now that I think about it.

Oh GOD that would be funny! I can't wait to see millions of Kinects buried in an Arizona landfill.

 

[Jared]

And yet, the great thing about predicting stuff...is, you should always be ready for dissapointment!

 

[thethingthatlurks]

Economics Fail
"Sebastian, an analyst for Lazard Capital Markets, has increased his estimates for Kinect shipments from three to four million units, after discovering that Microsoft was manufacturing the peripheral at a faster rate than previously believed."
Even if the supply is ample, limited demand will still cause the product to flop. Ah well, yet another stupid analyst. Where do these guys even come from?

 

[Decabo]

Sonic Free Riders looked somewhat interesting, but otherwise nothing else makes me want to buy Kinect.

 

[The Procrastinated End]

Still waiting for the improvement of games and not hardware.

 

[Saucycarpdog]

According to VGchartz, Kinect Adventures has around 34,000 pre-orders. Since Kinect Adventures comes bundled with Kinect, would I be right to assume that this is around the number of pre-orders for Kinect?

 

[Thunderhorse31]

So wait, now individual stores will have 100 units sitting on the stockroom shelf, instead of only 75?

Seriously, I'd get a Kinect... for maybe half the price they're currently asking. Maybe by the time the price drops that far, there will be a game or two worth playing (i.e. non-workout/dance/pet games).

 

[Upbeat Zombie]

Well unless the price drops around $100 I'm probably not going to get one.
It just doesn't look all that good.

 

[oranger]

Economics Fail
"Sebastian, an analyst for Lazard Capital Markets, has increased his estimates for Kinect shipments from three to four million units, after discovering that Microsoft was manufacturing the peripheral at a faster rate than previously believed."
Even if the supply is ample, limited demand will still cause the product to flop. Ah well, yet another stupid analyst. Where do these guys even come from?

You would be surprised...just like many analysts equate marketing with sales, many equate education with intelligence.

 

[thethingthatlurks]

Economics Fail
"Sebastian, an analyst for Lazard Capital Markets, has increased his estimates for Kinect shipments from three to four million units, after discovering that Microsoft was manufacturing the peripheral at a faster rate than previously believed."
Even if the supply is ample, limited demand will still cause the product to flop. Ah well, yet another stupid analyst. Where do these guys even come from?

You would be surprised...just like many analysts equate marketing with sales, many equate education with intelligence.

So that's why the bottom 10% of my high school class ended up going for an MBA?

 

[L4hlborg]

Manufacturing more Kinnect doesn't seem like a good idea, since the whole device doesn't really seem like a very good idea. Manufacturing more of something won't make it sell more, unless people actually buy it.