2019-2020 coronavirus pandemic

lil devils x

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I thought it would never happen, but it is poised to.

The USA is shortly to overtake the UK on officially recorded covid-19 deaths per head population - bearing in mind, of course, the two countries have different ways of recording covid-19 deaths, so direct comparisons must be taken with caution. This is largely because the UK (amidst the many, many ways it has handled covid-19 badly) was recording the deaths incorrectly, such that it had to make a major correction about a month ago and remove thousands of deaths from its covid-19 tally.

I might point out that the UK, by nationally recorded covid-19 deaths, is only behind Spain and Belgium of (significant) European countries. However, other measures (e.g. the indirect method of excess deaths in the period) suggest it may have suffered worst. This may make sense, as for instance Belgium's official definition of a covid-19 death is known to be particularly liberal.
I am sure the US has likely surpassed the UK long ago tbh, We have numerous GOP states that have been altering the Data and altering cause of deaths for months now. If you remember, I posted on this a while back here, Florida governor prevented the Medical examiner from releasing the data to the public, instead they had to send it to them, then they decided to pick and choose themselves which deaths were ruled COVD deaths or not and were removing strokes, heart attacks and other causes EVEN though they tested positive for COVID-19, when we already knew that COVID-19 could cause the blood clots to cause the strokes and heart attacks. On top of that the person who actually created the COVID tracking website said they were trying to get her to manipulate the data even then. Alabama was verified to be doing the same. Apparently Trump really liked that idea and ordered Hospitals to stop sending their data to the CDC but instead to send it to the HHS Trump appointee who was recently reported as manipulating CDC guidelines and data as well as pressuring Fauci and others in an attempt to muzzle them and filter what they were allowed to discuss publicly. In addition to that, we have had districts refusing to release their data at all afraid that it would " panic the locals" so there really is no telling how many GOP local and State officials that are playing that same game right now with the election nearing. We will not know for some time how many deaths we actually have here due to this and it will necessarily take years of extensive investigation to actually determine this once Trump is no longer in control over what is reported or released. Many of the GOP politicians here do not want data released that contradicts their reopening plans so are actively preventing that data from becoming public right now.

We have a parade of people now telling us this is happening at this point.
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Phoenixmgs

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As long as the hospitalization numbers aren't being altered, that's the main thing that matters with how "open" things can be. There's also states erroneously counting non-covid deaths as covid deaths and I have 2nd hand account of that happening in my area; there's articles of that happening as well. It varies on a state by state basis. You can always compare the excess deaths.
 

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As long as the hospitalization numbers aren't being altered, that's the main thing that matters with how "open" things can be. There's also states erroneously counting non-covid deaths as covid deaths and I have 2nd hand account of that happening in my area; there's articles of that happening as well. It varies on a state by state basis. You can always compare the excess deaths.
That is not how we make this determination when we investigate this. We look at the patients records, do tests on samples if stored and talk to the deceased's family when we do actual investigations into these deaths. We will eventually know one way or another. A second hand account that the medical examiner is falsely reporting COVID-19 Deaths? Are the people who are claiming this actually doing an examination of the patient or reviewing their tests? The reports we are receiving about states under reporting are by those who actually did the tests and those who are supposed to be handling the data from those who did the tests directly.


"The United States is still getting a handle on how many people are dying of COVID-19. Recent changes in guidance by the CDC are meant to provide a more accurate representation of the count.

Experts say that COVID-19 deaths are likely not being overinflated. That list includes by Dr. Anthony Fauci, who is leading the U.S. response to the coronavirus.

Instead, many experts say the nation is likely amid an undercount of the death toll due to the disease due to factors like false negatives on tests, a lack of testing and people who have died in their homes without receiving a positive test."





ALSO, yes even hospitalization numbers have been and are currently being altered.

2. Around one-third of states aren't reporting hospital admission data for COVID-19 patients. In Georgia, the number of patients reported as hospitalized with COVID-19 only includes those who were hospitalized at the time of their diagnosis, which deflates the numbers.


SO you understand that that actually means, When you go to the ER, you are not actually " admitted into the hospital", instead you are just an ER patient, but not a "hospitalized patient" by our own records, once you are admitted and sent to a room you are now considered " hospitalized".. By only reporting those who were hospitalized at the time of their test as being actually hospitalized, means that when they come into the ER and are tested, they have not yet been admitted to the hospital, EVEN if they are sent upstairs to a room a few minutes after testing, which means you are not actually reporting the number of hospitalized patients at all. Most are tested prior to being hospitalized with the way they separate them now in the ER and in clinics, so the data would be way off for patients that are actually hospitalized as that is a process that is usually done AFTER having test results unless you are so severe you need to be put on a ventilator and are sent straight into ICU immediately. There are plenty of people who are hospitalized that are not to that point already so If their hospitals work anything like ours do here, even determining if they are going to be admitted at all takes longer than just testing them when they walk into the door with COVID-19 symptoms. Here they are screened and tested as they arrive, usually before they even get into the waiting room. If it is decided to admit any of those patients after having a physician actually examine them, all of those numbers would be left out.

Then of course all the people who went home after being tested and had to come back and were hospitalized later would not be counted as well.
 
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Gethsemani

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As long as the hospitalization numbers aren't being altered, that's the main thing that matters with how "open" things can be. There's also states erroneously counting non-covid deaths as covid deaths and I have 2nd hand account of that happening in my area; there's articles of that happening as well. It varies on a state by state basis. You can always compare the excess deaths.
The problem with "Covid deaths" is what you count as a death by Covid. Covid itself is not lethal, it doesn't cause massive deterioration of lung tissue or something similar that might be a direct cause of death. Rather a lot of people infected by Covid-19 who dies does so from secondary complications like heart failure or kidney failure. Which means that it is down to the pathologist doing the autopsy to determine whether that Covid-19 infection was a significant contributor to the cause of death. This obviously varies wildly from one pathologist to another and probably across county and state lines depending on local guidelines and traditions in how to determine and report the cause of death. But just because you had an active Covid-19 infection at the time of death does not necessarily make it your cause of death (the obvious example here is someone being shot to death while suffering from Covid-19, but a question like "was this heart attack caused by Covid-19" ain't that easy to answer during an autopsy).

It isn't necessarily a case of malpractice or conspiracy that some pathologists "underreport" Covid-19 deaths, because whether to look at the broad status of the deceased at the time or death or just the narrow bodily failure that caused the death when determining cause of death is an age old, heated discussion among pathologists.
 

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That is not how we make this determination when we investigate this. We look at the patients records, do tests on samples if stored and talk to the deceased's family when we do actual investigations into these deaths. We will eventually know one way or another. A second hand account that the medical examiner is falsely reporting COVID-19 Deaths? Are the people who are claiming this actually doing an examination of the patient or reviewing their tests? The reports we are receiving about states under reporting are by those who actually did the tests and those who are supposed to be handling the data from those who did the tests directly.


"The United States is still getting a handle on how many people are dying of COVID-19. Recent changes in guidance by the CDC are meant to provide a more accurate representation of the count.

Experts say that COVID-19 deaths are likely not being overinflated. That list includes by Dr. Anthony Fauci, who is leading the U.S. response to the coronavirus.

Instead, many experts say the nation is likely amid an undercount of the death toll due to the disease due to factors like false negatives on tests, a lack of testing and people who have died in their homes without receiving a positive test."





ALSO, yes even hospitalization numbers have been and are currently being altered.

2. Around one-third of states aren't reporting hospital admission data for COVID-19 patients. In Georgia, the number of patients reported as hospitalized with COVID-19 only includes those who were hospitalized at the time of their diagnosis, which deflates the numbers.


SO you understand that that actually means, When you go to the ER, you are not actually " admitted into the hospital", instead you are just an ER patient, but not a "hospitalized patient" by our own records, once you are admitted and sent to a room you are now considered " hospitalized".. By only reporting those who were hospitalized at the time of their test as being actually hospitalized, means that when they come into the ER and are tested, they have not yet been admitted to the hospital, EVEN if they are sent upstairs to a room a few minutes after testing, which means you are not actually reporting the number of hospitalized patients at all. Most are tested prior to being hospitalized with the way they separate them now in the ER and in clinics, so the data would be way off for patients that are actually hospitalized as that is a process that is usually done AFTER having test results unless you are so severe you need to be put on a ventilator and are sent straight into ICU immediately. There are plenty of people who are hospitalized that are not to that point already so If their hospitals work anything like ours do here, even determining if they are going to be admitted at all takes longer than just testing them when they walk into the door with COVID-19 symptoms. Here they are screened and tested as they arrive, usually before they even get into the waiting room. If it is decided to admit any of those patients after having a physician actually examine them, all of those numbers would be left out.

Then of course all the people who went home after being tested and had to come back and were hospitalized later would not be counted as well.
I know that some places were classifying all deaths of people testing positive as a Covid death. I'm not sure if they've fixed the numbers or not, but that at least WAS how deaths were being counted in some places. I'm not too overly concerned about the accuracy of the numbers, they should at least be in the ballpark. Florida was having over 10,000 new cases daily for awhile. If their goal was to not look bad, they horribly failed at that.

I don't really care if they aren't counting people that just need an ER visit. It's how many beds and other things that are being needed for the severely hit by the disease. Florida, Texas, and Arizona were definitely having hospital capacity issues during their spikes so that was definitely not good. IIRC, everywhere in Europe that has recently seen spikes of cases have actually seen far fewer hospitalizations so the spikes aren't much of an issue.
 

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The problem with "Covid deaths" is what you count as a death by Covid. Covid itself is not lethal, it doesn't cause massive deterioration of lung tissue or something similar that might be a direct cause of death. Rather a lot of people infected by Covid-19 who dies does so from secondary complications like heart failure or kidney failure. Which means that it is down to the pathologist doing the autopsy to determine whether that Covid-19 infection was a significant contributor to the cause of death. This obviously varies wildly from one pathologist to another and probably across county and state lines depending on local guidelines and traditions in how to determine and report the cause of death. But just because you had an active Covid-19 infection at the time of death does not necessarily make it your cause of death (the obvious example here is someone being shot to death while suffering from Covid-19, but a question like "was this heart attack caused by Covid-19" ain't that easy to answer during an autopsy).

It isn't necessarily a case of malpractice or conspiracy that some pathologists "underreport" Covid-19 deaths, because whether to look at the broad status of the deceased at the time or death or just the narrow bodily failure that caused the death when determining cause of death is an age old, heated discussion among pathologists.
I totally get some things like heart attacks are going to be hard to pinpoint whether it was Covid or not. Some places at least were classifying anyone that died that was positive as a Covid death. But any death that happens that wouldn't have happened (or would have happened later) if they person didn't get Covid should be a Covid death obviously.
 

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I totally get some things like heart attacks are going to be hard to pinpoint whether it was Covid or not. Some places at least were classifying anyone that died that was positive as a Covid death. But any death that happens that wouldn't have happened (or would have happened later) if they person didn't get Covid should be a Covid death obviously.
That isn't true. That was already called out and debunked as a myth. I already posted links above addressing that as being false.
I know that some places were classifying all deaths of people testing positive as a Covid death. I'm not sure if they've fixed the numbers or not, but that at least WAS how deaths were being counted in some places. I'm not too overly concerned about the accuracy of the numbers, they should at least be in the ballpark. Florida was having over 10,000 new cases daily for awhile. If their goal was to not look bad, they horribly failed at that.

I don't really care if they aren't counting people that just need an ER visit. It's how many beds and other things that are being needed for the severely hit by the disease. Florida, Texas, and Arizona were definitely having hospital capacity issues during their spikes so that was definitely not good. IIRC, everywhere in Europe that has recently seen spikes of cases have actually seen far fewer hospitalizations so the spikes aren't much of an issue.
It was affecting how many beds were available, they were manipulating that data as well and hospitals were complaining about them doing so. If you read the links above, you would see that.

You misrepresented what I stated. They were not counting ER patients that were admitted to the hospital as being hospitalized. If you are testing BEFORE being admitted to the hospital, you were not counted as hospitalized EVEN AFTER YOU WERE HOSPITALIZED. I was pretty clear they were not counting hospitalized patients as hospitalized above unless they were hospitalized when they administered the test. Standard practice is to test them now BEFORE they are hospitalized so What happens is this:

1) Patient A tested for COVID-19 before being allowed into the waiting room to the ER.
2) Since they do not know if the patient will be admitted or not, they mark Patient A as not being hospitalized at the time of testing.
3) Patient A then goes to be examined by a physician and it is determined they need to be hospitalized.
4) Patient A status was never changed on the test or government data as being hospitalized, thus even though Patient A was hospitalized with COVID-19, the government data does not reflect that even if they were in the hospital for weeks, months or died there. The data the government is reporting still says they were not hospitalized regardless of what happened to them after being tested.
Then we have:
1Patient B is tested for COVID-19 at clinic, or outside ER.
2) Since the patient is not hospitalized at that time, they mark the Patient B as not being hospitalized.
3) Patient B is sent home but gets worse and goes back to the hospital and is now hospitalized.
4) Patient B status was NEVER CHANGED on the test or government data as being hospitalized. Thus even though Patient B was hospitalized with COVID-19, the government Data does not reflect that even if they were in the hospital for weeks, months or died there. The data the government is reporting still says they were not hospitalized regardless of what happened to them after being tested.

This wasn't them not including ER patients, it is that they are not including HOSPITALIZED patients in their data in 1/3 of the states according to what was linked above due to how they recorded who was hospitalized and who was not. We STILL currently have states that are not accurately tracking the number of hospital beds DUE to this, and why the states numbers and hospitals numbers do not match.
 
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lil devils x

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What good are links when everyone is so wrong?
Everyone is not wrong. That is why sources are important. You choosing to read wrong information and believe it does not mean everyone else is wrong. We have verifiable means to determine what is and is not accurate information here EVEN if republicans try to suppress it currently. In the end, it will be investigated and we will have a more accurate number whether they like it or not. Physicians usually make that fairly easy to do when the investigators finally bother to look, regardless if some politician wants to cast aside their data in the meantime.

 

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tstorm823

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Everyone is not wrong. That is why sources are important. You choosing to read wrong information and believe it does not mean everyone else is wrong. We have verifiable means to determine what is and is not accurate information here EVEN if republicans try to suppress it currently. In the end, it will be investigated and we will have a more accurate number whether they like it or not. Physicians usually make that fairly easy to do when the investigators finally bother to look, regardless if some politician wants to cast aside their data in the meantime.

Everyone is wrong. What is and is not accurate information... do the doctors even have accurate information? Are 40-90% of covid positives effectively meaningless? Do the doctors know if the positive is meaningful when an 80 year old dies with a positive test?
 

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Everyone is wrong. What is and is not accurate information... do the doctors even have accurate information? Are 40-90% of covid positives effectively meaningless? Do the doctors know if the positive is meaningful when an 80 year old dies with a positive test?
DID you read the link?

"Probable deaths must meet criteria based on a combination of epidemiological evidence, clinical evidence and presumptive laboratory testing, or vital records criteria.
Meanwhile, the count of "confirmed" deaths is reserved for those backed up by laboratory evidence, the CDC's website states.
However, just because a person has tested positive for COVID-19 doesn’t mean his or her death will be automatically ruled as stemming from the disease, said Dr. Sally Aiken, president of the National Association of Medical Examiners.
For instance, if a woman ingested something poisonous to take her own life and also had tested positive for the disease, her death would not be attributed to the virus.
“If we determine it to be a suicidal ingestion, we would certify the death as an intoxication/suicide,” she said in an email. “COVID would not be on the death certificate.”



Yes, physicians do in fact know if a positive test is meaningful when an 80 yr old dies because their death also has to have other criteria to be determined as such. If you had read the link you would have known that as it was quite clear in this regard. You not understanding how we determine cause of death does not make those who do " wrong". It just means you don't understand how this is determined and are mistaken for thinking the methods for determining cause of death would be so crude.
 
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Phoenixmgs

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That isn't true. That was already called out and debunked as a myth. I already posted links above addressing that as being false.

It was affecting how many beds were available, they were manipulating that data as well and hospitals were complaining about them doing so. If you read the links above, you would see that.

You misrepresented what I stated. They were not counting ER patients that were admitted to the hospital as being hospitalized. If you are testing BEFORE being admitted to the hospital, you were not counted as hospitalized EVEN AFTER YOU WERE HOSPITALIZED. I was pretty clear they were not counting hospitalized patients as hospitalized above unless they were hospitalized when they administered the test. Standard practice is to test them now BEFORE they are hospitalized so What happens is this:

1) Patient A tested for COVID-19 before being allowed into the waiting room to the ER.
2) Since they do not know if the patient will be admitted or not, they mark Patient A as not being hospitalized at the time of testing.
3) Patient A then goes to be examined by a physician and it is determined they need to be hospitalized.
4) Patient A status was never changed on the test or government data as being hospitalized, thus even though Patient A was hospitalized with COVID-19, the government data does not reflect that even if they were in the hospital for weeks, months or died there. The data the government is reporting still says they were not hospitalized regardless of what happened to them after being tested.
Then we have:
1Patient B is tested for COVID-19 at clinic, or outside ER.
2) Since the patient is not hospitalized at that time, they mark the Patient B as not being hospitalized.
3) Patient B is sent home but gets worse and goes back to the hospital and is now hospitalized.
4) Patient B status was NEVER CHANGED on the test or government data as being hospitalized. Thus even though Patient B was hospitalized with COVID-19, the government Data does not reflect that even if they were in the hospital for weeks, months or died there. The data the government is reporting still says they were not hospitalized regardless of what happened to them after being tested.

This wasn't them not including ER patients, it is that they are not including HOSPITALIZED patients in their data in 1/3 of the states according to what was linked above due to how they recorded who was hospitalized and who was not. We STILL currently have states that are not accurately tracking the number of hospital beds DUE to this, and why the states numbers and hospitals numbers do not match.
When someone (no matter expert or not) says something LIKELY isn't happening, that doesn't debunk anything. And that's way from April. You can easily search and find articles about Colorado and Washington at one point counting non-Covid deaths as Covid. I'm not trying to say that the inflation was higher than the under reporting but both were happening.

That was only Georgia. And you can look at hospital capacity if you're afraid that hospitalization numbers are wrong.
 

lil devils x

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When someone (no matter expert or not) says something LIKELY isn't happening, that doesn't debunk anything. And that's way from April. You can easily search and find articles about Colorado and Washington at one point counting non-Covid deaths as Covid. I'm not trying to say that the inflation was higher than the under reporting but both were happening.

That was only Georgia. And you can look at hospital capacity if you're afraid that hospitalization numbers are wrong.
If you had read the problem was the state was not reporting accurately on how many beds the hospitals had available that were not currently occupied with COVID-19 patients DUE to them misrepresenting the number of patients hospitalized with COVID-19. You keep tryin to twist it to mean something other than it does. This wasn't just April, it has been an ongoing issue. We always say something isn't likely because in Science, there is no such thing as 100%. Even if something is 99.9% , it is STILL unlikely. They also explained to you WHY it wasn't likely and why the overall consensus is that we have underreporting rather than overreporting. The people claiming there is over reporting are politicians who have been debunked and made baseless claims. The article went over all that already. You should understand these things have not yet stopped

 

Agema

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Everyone is wrong. What is and is not accurate information... do the doctors even have accurate information? Are 40-90% of covid positives effectively meaningless? Do the doctors know if the positive is meaningful when an 80 year old dies with a positive test?
Well, absolutely. If people weren't wrong, people might have to look at the Trump administration and conclude they'd done a pretty bad job, but that conclusion just cannot be permitted.
 

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Everyone is wrong. What is and is not accurate information... do the doctors even have accurate information? Are 40-90% of covid positives effectively meaningless? Do the doctors know if the positive is meaningful when an 80 year old dies with a positive test?
I see you've gone full antivaxxer at this point.
 

tstorm823

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DID you read the link?

"Probable deaths must meet criteria based on a combination of epidemiological evidence, clinical evidence and presumptive laboratory testing, or vital records criteria.
Meanwhile, the count of "confirmed" deaths is reserved for those backed up by laboratory evidence, the CDC's website states. "
Now name the symptoms of covid-19 and tell me how many are unique to the virus when compared to deaths in the elderly that would be considered normal.
 

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Yea, the one thing they should have done, and was so close and almost got right until Trump's dumbass syndrome kicked in again. It was like he was so close to getting this right but just couldn't stop his dumbass syndrome from taking over.
I literally can't understand how it would have set in panic. Being prepared means less panic. Ignoring it induces panic. You could have said that it may not be needed but in case you do..
 

Phoenixmgs

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If you had read the problem was the state was not reporting accurately on how many beds the hospitals had available that were not currently occupied with COVID-19 patients DUE to them misrepresenting the number of patients hospitalized with COVID-19. You keep tryin to twist it to mean something other than it does. This wasn't just April, it has been an ongoing issue. We always say something isn't likely because in Science, there is no such thing as 100%. Even if something is 99.9% , it is STILL unlikely. They also explained to you WHY it wasn't likely and why the overall consensus is that we have underreporting rather than overreporting. The people claiming there is over reporting are politicians who have been debunked and made baseless claims. The article went over all that already. You should understand these things have not yet stopped

You're not getting what I'm saying. I said there have been both happening (inflation and under reporting) and whatever happens most will obviously determine if deaths are higher or lower than the official count. I never claimed the official count is too high, I just said there's deaths that were/are counted as covid deaths that weren't. Obviously, if under reporting is worse, then the official number is too low. I don't really care all that much over how accurate the numbers are; they're good enough to get a sense of the danger from the virus to make policy. Plus, the US death rate is inline with other countries as well so unless this is some worldwide conspiracy, the deadliness of the virus is pretty well known at this point.

The main thing I'm saying is as long as healthcare isn't overrun, enough is being done to slow the spread of the virus. What does it matter if covid hospitalizations are being altered? We know if the hospitals over capacity or not, that's the main thing. If we know a bed is being used, what does it matter if the reason is marked wrong?

There's been far too much obsession over numbers that don't matter like the official case (infection) count. The official infection numbers are only the tip of the iceberg and are rather pointless giving you an infection count that is nowhere near accurate and a case fatality rate that is also rather pointless. Getting the actual infection fatality rate is the number that is actually informative.