2020 Congressional Elections

[lil devils x]

What seats do we have a chance in hell to flip to gain the senate?

2020 Senate Election Interactive Map - 270toWin

Who will control the Senate? Review and predict the outcome of the 35 Senate races in the 2020 elections.

www.270towin.com

What seats will be gained or lost in the House?

https://www.270towin.com/2020-house-election/

In order to be able to get anything passed, we have to have control over both houses and the White house. If anything, I see the Senate race as being even more important than the presidential elections with Mitch McConnell blocking anything from being voted on leaving Democrats left to spin their wheels:

"On Fox News Friday, anchor Bret Baier asked McConnell if Democrats' statements about those bills were true and whether they could move forward. McConnell confirmed that it was the case, but also said that proposed legislation would be rejected.

"It is true," the senator said. "They've been on full left-wing parade over there, trotting out all of their left-wing solutions that are going to be issues in the fall campaign. They're right. We're not going to pass those."

Mitch McConnell Admits There Are 395 House Bills Sitting in the Senate

During an appearance on Fox News, the Senate majority leader said he doesn't plan to pass the bills that are currently in the Senate.

www.newsweek.com

Without gaining the Senate, nothing will ever get done. People should keep in mind that it isn't that the GOP doesn't like to spend money, they just don't want to spend money helping the people, but have no problem spending to support the military industrial complex:

Mitch McConnell Calls to Cut Social Security, Medicare

After instituting a $1.5 trillion tax cut, the Senate majority leader said Tuesday that the only way to lower the record-high federal deficit would be to cut entitlement programs.

www.newsweek.com

Keeping in mind Democrats will likely lose a seat in Alabama:

The Democrats’ Seven Best Chances for Retaking the Senate

Vulnerable Republicans, surprising opportunities, and a real path to victory.

slate.com

"Let’s get the math out of the way. The current, Republican-led Senate composition is 53 to 47. That means Democrats need a net pickup of three seats to win the chamber if they win the presidency—and have a Democratic vice president to cast the tie-breaking vote—or four seats if they don’t. Democrats will likely need to flip four or five Republican seats, though, because Alabama Sen. Doug Jones, who this time will not be running against a Republican who’s been banned from the mall, is probably going to lose. Democrats’ three best pickup opportunities (spoiler) are in Maine, Colorado, and Arizona. "

The Seats:
1) North Carolina
"Democrats have invented a specimen named “Cal Cunningham” (troop, lawyer, dad!) to take on incumbent Republican Sen. Thom Tillis, whom voters dislike. Cunningham prevailed in the primary, despite Republican hijinks to prevent him from doing so, and will be competitive with key Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee–targeted swing blocs in the Research Triangle like White Claw Frolf Dads and CIA Predator Drone Pilot Moms. "
2) Maine
Democrat Sara Gideon vs Republican Susan Collins
"The most recent (Democratic-leaning) poll in March showed Collins trailing her main competitor in the ranked-choice voting system, Democrat Sara Gideon, by 4 percentage points. Those fundamentals are bad, especially in a presidential election year in a (narrowly) blue state where the top of the ticket will dictate much of what goes on down-ballot. Next to his own race, though, reelecting Collins will be Mitch McConnell’s top priority after the risk she took on Kavanaugh. She won’t lack for funds."
3)Colorado
"No Republican is up for reelection in a bluer state than Colorado, earning Cory Gardner the sad title of most vulnerable Republican this cycle. His likely opponent will be popular former Denver Mayor and Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, whose entrance into the presidential race last year had no impact but whose entrance into the Colorado race has (nearly) cleared the Democratic field ahead of the June primary"
4)Montana
The “hot poll o’ the week” came from Montana State University, showing Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock, a late recruit whom Chuck Schumer wanted so badly that he flew his Brooklyn-ass self out to Montana in February to meet him, leading incumbent Sen. Steve Daines 46 to 39 percent. Now: How accurate is this flashy poll? There’s no way, for instance, that Trump is only leading in the state by 5 percentage points, as the poll also found, when he won it by 20 in 2016"
5)Kansas
"In 2018, Kansas Republicans, who have spent the past decade in a protracted civil war between their normie “we just like business!” types and their kooky right flank, nominated a candidate from the latter category, controversial former Secretary of State Kris Kobach, for the governor’s race. Kobach lost the general election to Democrat Laura Kelly. LOST to a DEMOCRAT, in KANSAS.The state Republican Party is trying to unite the primary field behind an alternative, Rep. Roger Marshall, to prevent Kobach from advancing to another general election.
If they nominate Kobach again, there’s a good chance they blow it again, this time to Democratic state Sen. Barbara Bollier. "
6)Massachusetts
Democrat Joe Kennedy is challenging Democrat Ed Markey in the primary, we do not have republican challenger as of yet.
7)Arizona
Democrat Mark Kelly, astronaut husband to former Rep. Gabby Giffords vs appointed Republican Martha McSally.
Kelly is leading McSally by 8 percentage points in the polling average.

So, while yes, I am sure many will complain these options are not progressive enough, but in most cases, when you are trying to flip the few seats available to gain a majority, you are not going to be able to get a progressive elected in those seats, so taking something is still better than losing the majority over.

 

[stroopwafel]

I don't know who any of those people are but I do know the policy will be tax breaks for corporations and budget cuts for public/social programs with people in backwater USA voting to overturn their health insurance because ofcourse the corporations deserve it more than Hillary and those commies.

 

[Tireseas]

As all things go in cycles, so does the Senate. 2014 was a very good year for the Senate GOP, with McConnell finally getting the majority that he's hung onto by only a few seats since. What this means in 2020, however, is that there's a lot of vulnerable seats up for grabs at a time where GOP senators are demoralized and Democrats are energized (lil devils x's OP does a good job laying most of those potential pick ups out).

There will be a lot of pressure on Trump and his campaign to figure out how to protect vulnerable incumbents and try to drag GOP challengers in open seats over the finish line. If he tries to run the same playbook in 2020 as he did in 2018, I suspect he will fail, largely because presidential general elections have much higher turnout and he's lost ground with swing voters, particularly white women. Not having these coattails could work both ways for GOP senate candidates, particularly if they distance themselves from Trump and can out preform him like many did in 2016. However, they same marginal split-vote dynamics might not be in play in the same way in 2016, with most of the GOP senate clearly carrying water for the administrations most egregious breaches of conduct. This, of course, also does not get into the individual race dynamics, where candidates may decide to hug or distance themselves from the president based on local factors.