2022 French Presidential Election

[Silvanus]

It's the last full day of campaigning today, and the televised debate has passed-- it was apparently very combative, in spite of expectations it was going to be dry and cautious.

France’s candidates make final pitches as Macron extends poll lead over Le Pen

Macron accuses Le Pen of ‘living off fear’ as both try to get Mélenchon voters to turn out for them

www.theguardian.com

Polling now shows Macron's lead has widened significantly, to double-digits. It also shows that voters who intend to vote Macron are more sure of their choice than voters who said they would vote for Le Pen, meaning that any "sliding" is more likely to favour Macron too.

 

[Agema]

Polling now shows Macron's lead has widened significantly, to double-digits. It also shows that voters who intend to vote Macron are more sure of their choice than voters who said they would vote for Le Pen, meaning that any "sliding" is more likely to favour Macron too.

I'm not really surprised. Although a lot of voters vote relatively casually without paying that much attention to the issues, quite a few of them do start focusing in.

It's relatively easy for the likes of Le Pen to play to the gallery when they are far from power. But the closer they get, the more the scrutiny increases, and a lot of policies designed to look popular can start looking much weaker when tested against real world challenges.

 

[Silvanus]

It's relatively easy for the likes of Le Pen to play to the gallery when they are far from power. But the closer they get, the more the scrutiny increases, and a lot of policies designed to look popular can start looking much weaker when tested against real world challenges.

This reminds me of one of my favourite quotes from The Thick of It, from Peter Mannion MP to a gov. special advisor:

"Your free-range no-consequence bullshit was hugely entertaining when we were in opposition and shitting money, but now we're in government and it's all gone a bit J.G. Ballard, it's irrelevant and infantile!"

 

[Godzillarich(aka tf2godz)]

It's the last full day of campaigning today, and the televised debate has passed-- it was apparently very combative, in spite of expectations it was going to be dry and cautious.

France’s candidates make final pitches as Macron extends poll lead over Le Pen

Macron accuses Le Pen of ‘living off fear’ as both try to get Mélenchon voters to turn out for them

www.theguardian.com

Polling now shows Macron's lead has widened significantly, to double-digits. It also shows that voters who intend to vote Macron are more sure of their choice than voters who said they would vote for Le Pen, meaning that any "sliding" is more likely to favour Macron too.

Trump was low in the pulls, there were many people that will not admit voting for her but are anyway. we will see how it goes

 

[Gergar12]

As a pessimist I think one day Le Pen or someone in her family will win eventually, every year her poll numbers get better and better. It's not helped by the fact that Jean-Luc Mélenchon is a clown who's somewhat against the EU, and NATO meaning his supporters could go to Le Pen in a future Red-Brown alliance. Macron keeps trolling the left at the behest of his consultants, and finance friends like McKinsey, and while it's funny in the short term, it's not sustainable in the long term.

If I were US policymakers, and I don't envy their position I would prepare for the day France leaves NATO, and or the EU.

 

[Agema]

If I were US policymakers, and I don't envy their position I would prepare for the day France leaves NATO

France has left NATO before. It wouldn't be a problem if it did so again. Like last time, it would be more in appearance than reality, remaining a closely allied associate.

Plus, the minute Le Pen actually tried to fuck with EU membership, she'd face what every single French president ever does, which is her country locked rigid with mass protests until the move gets watered down to nothing or she is forced to give up. I suspect what she'd probably just content herself with is rabid anti-immigration policy and (like all far right leaders) attempting to use the power of the state to undermine democratic rule in her favour.

 

[Avnger]

France has left NATO before. It wouldn't be a problem if it did so again. Like last time, it would be more in appearance than reality, remaining a closely allied associate.

To nitpick for the sake of nitpicking, France never actually left NATO. They have always been bound by the mutual defense clause and such. They did, however, withdraw from the mutual command apparatus. You're entirely correct about it mostly being more of an appearance than reality though.

From wikipedia:

In 1966, all French armed forces were removed from NATO's integrated military command, and all non-French NATO troops were asked to leave France.[31] The withdrawal forced the relocation of SHAPE from Rocquencourt, near Paris, to Casteau, north of Mons, Belgium, by 16 October 1967.[32] France remained a member of the alliance and committed to the defense of Europe from possible Warsaw Pact attack with its own forces stationed in West Germany throughout the Cold War. A series of secret accords between the US and French officials, the Lemnitzer–Ailleret Agreements, detailed how French forces would dovetail back into NATO's command structure if East-West hostilities broke out.[33]

[...]

France announced its return to full participation at the 2009 Strasbourg–Kehl summit.[35]

 

[Seanchaidh]

Polling now shows Macron's lead has widened significantly, to double-digits. It also shows that voters who intend to vote Macron are more sure of their choice than voters who said they would vote for Le Pen, meaning that any "sliding" is more likely to favour Macron too.

My condolences to the French people now facing such a bleak choice.

 

[Thaluikhain]

After all the fun Britain had leaving the EU (and the EU laughing at them) I doubt another country (expecially with big land borders with multiple other EU members) is in big hurry to leave.

 

[Agema]

After all the fun Britain had leaving the EU (and the EU laughing at them) I doubt another country (expecially with big land borders with multiple other EU members) is in big hurry to leave.

It's worth noting that technically Le Pen's official policy is not to leave the EU, but to "reform" it. So far so okay, but we all really know what "reform" means is carrying out a campaign of disruption and wrecking with the long-term intent of breaking the EU.

The Germans are reputedly quite interested in EU reform, but of the constructive kind rather than Le Pen's destructive vision. One of the reasons the French are less interested in the EU these days (apart from the general rise in nationalism) is that since the accession of Eastern European nations, it's gone from being a net beneficiary to a net contributor.

 

[Godzillarich(aka tf2godz)]

Macron wins French presidential election

Official results show that the abstention rate was at 28%, the highest in any presidential election run-off since 1969.

www.lemonde.fr

Somewhere Putin is crying

 

[Chimpzy]

Good. Macron sucks, but he's not a fascist. Le Pen may not be as blatant about it, but she is a fille à papa.

 

[Agema]

Good. Macron sucks, but he's not a fascist. Le Pen may not be as blatant about it, but she is a fille à papa.

Pretty decent margin in the end. I think the polls were suggesting 12%, and he ended up with 16%.

But France will almost certainly be here next election, too. Macron might be boring, reliable, business-as-usual, but marginal changes won't satisfy enough people in a world where radicalism is on the rise.

Of course, there might be exciting stuff in the legislative election. En Marche is likely to need a partner, and that's up for grabs. Chances are, if they save their seats, Les Republicains: because anything else would be a lot more hard work for En Marche.

 

[Gergar12]

Le Pen thinks sucking up to a country with an economy that's smaller than Italy's is a good idea. No wonder the French rejected her.

 

[Silvanus]

An interesting graphic showing where votes transferred between the first and second round;



So 42% of Melenchon's voters switched to Macron, 17% to Le Pen, and 41% either abstained or voted blank/null.

Oddly, 9% of Le Pen's voters from the first round didn't vote for her in the second. Maybe they intended it merely as a protest vote, and got squeamish when it looked like she had an actual shot.

Le Pen got most from Zemmour (as expected), as well as 18% from Les Republicains.

I wanted to know where Anne Hidalgo's votes transferred to, but she's not on there, alas.

 

[Seanchaidh]

 

[Generals]

Le Pen didn't win....

 

[Chimpzy]

Le Pen didn't win....

Le Pen is not moderate. I know she attented to push her party into a more "moderate" direction to improve its image and make it look more palatable, but underneath is still extreme right like daddy. Kind of similar to our own Tom Van Grieken, a fresh young face without as much baggage like being chummy with actual nazi collaborators as Filip De Winter was, but every bit as hardline.

 

[Seanchaidh]

Le Pen didn't win....

The tweet is about Macron, indeed.

 

[Cheetodust]

The tweet is about Macron, indeed.

Ah I see you've forgotten. Unless you regularly use the n word then you're not a white supremacist. And even if you do you might just be joking so it doesn't count.