Analysts Say Call of Duty Won't Go Guitar Hero

[Andy Chalk]

Analysts Say Call of Duty Won't Go Guitar Hero

The fall of the once-mighty Call of Duty [http://www.amazon.com/Guitar-Hero-Warriors-Bundle-Xbox-360/dp/B003N65DFA/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1297807180&sr=8-1], Activision's other heavily-flogged flagship game series, won't suffer the same fate.

The rise and fall of Guitar Hero is a spectacular and cautionary tale. It was one of the most revolutionary games of all time when it launched in late 2005 and single-handedly turned the music game genre into one of the industry's most reliable money-makers. Yet earlier this month Activision pulled the plug [http://www.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/107672-Activision-Pulls-the-Plug-on-Guitar-Hero-Franchise] on the series after the most recent release, Guitar Hero: Warriors of Rock, tanked, an ignominious end to a once-legendary franchise. What happened? And could another big-time Activision property, say, Call of Duty, suffer the same fate?

Not likely, according to several industry analysts who spoke to IndustryGamers [http://www.industrygamers.com/news/call-of-duty-is-not-the-next-guitar-hero/] on the matter. While any regularly iterated game series risks "franchise fatigue," Jesse Divnich of EEDAR said Guitar Hero and Call of Duty are "two different franchises with two different demographics. I don't believe any lessons learned from the music category applies to the Call of Duty franchise."

The most important difference between the two is that Guitar Hero, and the music game genre as a whole, was a fad that was bound to die out sooner or later. "With GH it seemed that it was very likely to be a fad that would be milked until it dried out. It was somewhat the same issue as extreme sports and hunting games," said David Cole of DFC Intelligence. "FPS games are a long proven genre and thus don't seem to have fallen into that fad issue."

Some analysts, in fact, praised Activision's handling of the property. "Guitar Hero and other former franchises may appear to be publisher failures, but the truth is that strip-mining franchises is a successful, risk-averse strategy. [Activision] made good money on GH," said Billy Pidgeon of M2 Research. "The 'hit it and quit it' model -- carpet-bombing the market with sequels and then slashing the assets -- pays off big in the short term, so [Activision's] shareholders are happy."

There's no suggestion that the Call of Duty franchise is immune to a similar downfall, but the general consensus is that as long as Activision maintains a high level of quality and keeps its online audience engaged, all will be well. "This is a franchise that has increased in sales every year for the past six or seven years and has consolidated market share in the process," said Colin Sebastian of Lazard Capital Markets. "Could Activision mess it up? Sure, but if they focus on maintaining high game quality, fresh story-lines, and online multiplayer, then I don't see an obvious reason for the franchise to decline."


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[NeedAUserName]

I could have told you that. I really don't see what these analysts are paid for, almost everything they say is glaringly obvious.

 

[Mrsoupcup]

If they over saturate the market of course they will fail. Cod has reached it's peak in sales, so it can only go down from here. I'm pretty sure Microsoft once said the same about Halo.

 

[Eri]

Uh, too bad it already has? At the rate they've come out, they've already guitar hero'd the franchise. Good or not.

 

[fix-the-spade]

Nevermind quality.

That CoD only comes out once a year is it's saving race. Guitar Hero/Rockband titles were coming out at the rate of five plus a year at one point. Each with a $100 set of accessories. Even people who don't buy games got sick of that.

CoD's major weakness is if someone else comes along and ups the game the same way CoD 4 did to Halo 3, it doesn't mean Call of Duty would suddenly die as a franchise (after all, nobody bought Halo reach right?), but it would mean it's place as top dog and gauranteed sales magnet would be under threat.

 

[The Lost Big Boss]

And thats all I have to say about that

 

[manythings]

Unfortunately brain dead shooters will never stop appearing. If they did I think something new could actually come to the forefront... or something old like (good) point and click adventures.

I could have told you that. I really don't see what these analysts are paid for, almost everything they say is glaringly obvious.

Analysts are part of the same kind of speculative bullshittery as Wine Experts, Stock brokers, Criminal profilers and... well basically any profession that offers an equations or set of rules to prove quality or predict trends.

 

[noble cookie]

I'm sorry but I think CoD needs to die, I liked some of the games but it's getting too much now, there are hardly any improvements each year. Even Halo died (sort of) but I think CoD is only being rushed each year to make money now. At least wait a while so you can make a really good CoD game.

 

[Get_A_Grip_]

No Sher Shitlock.

CoD is the biggest selling gaming franchise at the moment. It's not going to die out any time soon.

 

[Woodsey]

It's got to the point where I couldn't give a flying fuck.

I'm not even angry at the inevitable buzz that we're all going to have to endure for the 2-3 months leading up to November.

This year we have:

Deus Ex: Human Revolution (A new Deus Ex, and yet Call of Duty will get more hype!)
Crysis 2
Uncharted 3
Mass Effect 3
Dragon Age 2
The Old Republic
inFamous 2
Portal 2
Arkham City
Diablo 3 (possibly)

And all people are going to be interested in for months on end is the game they've been buying since 2007 (before that they were a little different).

 

[Adzma]

As long as mindless fanboys flock to each release every single year it will continue. After all why would we want to take a risk with new IP when we can just rely on the masses to buy the same game every November?

 

[Simalacrum]

Thing is about games like Call of Duty, there is incentive to buy the sequels. That really isn't the case with a franchise like Guitar Hero - most people's feelings were "you get one Guitar Hero, you don't need any others". None of the people who were buying music games were coming back for more, while those buying shooter games are far more likely to trade-in the old for the new.

 

[IamQ]

Activision won't let CoD go the same way. Their so persistent, and now that Treyarch is fully engaged in CoD, there is no way for it to stop at the moment.

All too sad...

 

[Negatempest]

I don't get it, what do these analysts mean by "nothing to learn"? The fate of GH is VERY similar to the fate Sega placed themselves in nearly a decade ago. Too much of the same stuff placed in front of consumers will cause fatigue in anything. Too much Sega Hardware, too many Guitar Hero games, they are VERY similar even though one is hardware and the other is software.

The difference that these so called "analysts" seem to ignore that Guitar Hero pumped out around 12+ games in a 7 year period. That is almost 2 games per year. Madden and CoD only have 1 game a year. So of course the GH franchise would die out soon, what they did to GH would make Nintendo blush. All these fancy titles are nothing more than a deterrent to the fact that Activision handled a franchise BADLY. CoD will not follow because they haven't pumped out anywhere near the same amount of games in a short period of time.

 

[aenimau5]

What the analysts know is that fps gamers have a much higher tolerance for repetitive bullshit.

 

[Drentics]

As long as people keep buying Call of Duty, of course it won't be discontinued.

As far as I can tell, the audience for samey brownwashed shooters isn't going anywhere.

 

[emeraldrafael]

I think this a WELL DUH! moment if i've ever seen one. Music games were fads really, and its like any economical boom. The bubble pops it and all collapses.

 

[Something Amyss]

Analysts say Earth revolves around sun.

I don't know, this seems like a useless thing to "predict."