Dyack: 2009 Might Be The End of Gaming's "Golden Era"

[John Funk]

Dyack: 2009 Might Be The End of Gaming's "Golden Era"

Silicon Knights founder and Too Human brainmaster Denis Dyack thinks that programs like OnLive and Gaikai may well change the games industry as we know it - forever.

Speaking at GDC Europe, Dyack talked about the future of gaming, and how it might be affected "cloud computing" services such as OnLive and Gaikai. While many have expressed doubts that the services will be able to deliver what they claim - even a small amount of input lag might render games unplayable - Dyack expressed support by the idea, and claimed that in twenty years, cloud computing would be the dominant paradigm in the industry, reports Gamespot [http://gamescom.gamespot.com/story/6215385/dyack-predicts-end-of-the-golden-era-of-video-games].

Specifically addressing the lag issue, Dyack said that he didn't think it would be a problem: "If I were one of these companies, I'd be looking at putting hardware into every major city, which would completely eradicate any lag problems." With the lag problem solved, then, these services are poised to take over the industry - and end the "console market" as we know it: "2009 may be the end of the golden era of video games as the first cloud models for games are announced."

Okay, I see what Dyack is saying, and on some level I agree - even if OnLive and Gaikai suffer from tech problems now, sooner or later the technology will exist to make this possible. Once that happens, everything is out the window - not only will developers and publishers support these services as they make games effectively impossible to pirate and make the second-hand market significantly less viable, but the cloud concept removes the hardware side from the equation.

Still, if Dyack is as big a supporter of cloud gaming as he claims, it's an odd choice of words: "End of the golden era" sort of implies that these will be detrimental to the games industry, doesn't it?

Either way, Silicon Knights isn't ready to just abandon consoles just yet. "Silicon Knights will continue to do console games as long as they're profitable," says Dyack.

(Via Edge [http://www.edge-online.com/news/denis-dyack-%E2%80%9C2009-may-be-the-end-of-the-golden-era-of-videogames%E2%80%9D])

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[Toty54]

Just go onto the Onlive site and see which games are supported. I think they have about 10, and none of the new releases.

Now, How is it going to destroy consoles?

EDIT: Sorry my bad 16.

 

[Nimbus]

Specifically addressing the lag issue, Dyack said that he didn't think it would be a problem: "If I were one of these companies, I'd be looking at putting hardware into every major city, which would completely eradicate any lag problems." With the lag problem solved, then, these services are poised to take over the industry - and end the "console market" as we know it: "2009 may be the end of the golden era of video games as the first cloud models for games are announced."

This seems unlikely. Specifically the "I'd be looking at putting hardware into every major city, which would completely eradicate any lag problems." doesn't look to good. They would have to put this technology everywhere in the world that currently has electricity in order to have the same audience size for cloud based games.

I just don't see it happening.

 

[tehroc]

What Golden Era are we talking about? Games have been on a steady decline since they became more mainstream sans 2000 or so.

 

[Meado]

The key to console gaming is it's accessability; plug it into your TV and you're good to go. Cloud-gaming requires a persistent internet connection, something many people still don't have. That, among other things, mean it'll take a couple of years to get everything to the level required for cloud-gaming to be a viable alternative to consoles. That means we've got at least a few more years before the "Golden Era" ends.

Remember everyone, this is the same guy who said Too Human would be good.

It puts his judgment in question a bit.

I was gonna say that, but then I realised it would be spiteful to begrudge the guy for saying what he was payed to say. To my knowledge he has little to do with Onlive, so his opinion is a valid as anyone elses. He's wrong, but its still his opinion. Free speech and all that.

 

[superdance14]

Remember everyone, this is the same guy who said Too Human would be good.

It puts his judgment in question a bit.

 

[hansari]

Remember everyone, this is the same guy who said Too Human would be good.

It puts his judgment in question a bit.

Enough said

I feel bad for the people at OnLive...they think the novelty will draw people in...

 

[Sebenko]

Remember everyone, this is the same guy who said Too Human would be good.

It puts his judgment in question a bit.

And he said gameplay wasn't important. He is a fool.

 

[Rallion]

Putting servers in "every major city" doesn't eliminate lag. I work in a sort-of-related field and I constantly see people with 200ms latency and higher when connecting to systems practically next door. Your ISP's infrastructure and routing methods have at least as much to do with your latency as geographical location.

As somebody who deals with this kind of stuff every day, it's plain to me that this (barely) works on paper, but in reality it's going to face serious problems -- lag is only going to be one of them.

 

[Irridium]

Yeah, if this becomes the new standard, I will be pissed. I wouldn't be able to play anything, because the fastest internet supported in my area is slightly faster than dial-up.

And I'm not the only one, there are many people in my situation.
Until DSL is supported in all areas, I really, really hope that digital only services never come out.

 

[cleverlymadeup]

how many golden eras does the game industry have? there seems to be one every decade or so, i think the 80s is the only one with some credence

 

[Bigeyez]

What Golden Era are we talking about? Games have been on a steady decline since they became more mainstream sans 2000 or so.

What? The industry has been growing steadily for years. The economic downturn is the only thing that has put a dent in the growth of the videogame industry.

OT: I doubt we'll see consoles go anytime soon. Theres still a lot of IF's to deal with concerning cloud gaming. It's going to be years before these systems can really compete with consoles or regular PC gaming.

how many golden eras does the game industry have? there seems to be one every decade or so, i think the 80s is the only one with some credence

And this. It's such a relative term anyways.

 

[scotth266]

All it would take to kill this would be one headline coming from any major gaming source. Specifically: OnLive? More like, OnLag!

Cloud computing is too far-fetched: I don't think people will go with it. It's an idea of the future, and will stay that way for quite some time.

 

[Monshroud]

Well another big factor in this is that people have to buy into it. Just because the service or technology exists doesn't mean people will use it. This also assumes you can get the mass public to buy into the 'games as a service' model, rather than the traditional 'games as a product' model.

From what I can tell this is using a "thin-client" or Citrix-based Terminal services setup. You are streaming your input to them, they stream all the video and sound to you. Where I live right now 1.5Mbps is the fastest I can get unless I want to use Cable-based internet (which has it's own problems) so on my nifty HDTV I can only play games in SDTV? Also there is no mention of 1080p, only 720p. Don't get me wrong, 720p is nice, but 1080p is better. =)

Also, just because you have a high-speed connection doesn't mean you won't encounter lag from your source to destination. They would need regional and possibly state based data-centers, and given the amount of hardware they need would be at a very high cost.

The next issue of course is cost. How much will they charge? Will you be limited to the amount of games you can play in a month? Are we looking at $19.99, $29.99 a month or more? When you start to calculate all the costs for data-center services, employee's, and the money you will have to give to developers, I don't see how they can make a profit. Unless they want to make all the games ad-based where every 20-mins I have to watch a commercial.

Now let's look at the ripple effect of something like this. What happens to companies like Nvidia, ATI, Creative, Sony, Microsoft, Nintendo, and the mass amount of third-party accessory developers if this becomes successful? You think these multi-billion dollar companies are just going to let this happen without a fight? One of the things that Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo have is exclusive properties. Trust me, if the big three don't license their exclusive properties this won't take off. So good luck convincing Nintendo to give up Mario, MS to give up Halo, or Sony to give up Killzone. People buy the system's that have the games they want, and the big-three hold the keys to those franchises.

So years from now when we are playing the PS5 and the Nintendo Woosh we will look back on this and think "Hey, remember that OnLive thing???"

 

[Towowo2]

Personally I don't see this taking off even if they get the kinks out of it. People still want to own the games. I wouldn't want to be reliant on my internet connection to play games anyway.

 

[The_root_of_all_evil]

Specifically addressing the lag issue, Dyack said that he didn't think it would be a problem: "If I were one of these companies, I'd be looking at putting hardware into every major city, which would completely eradicate any lag problems."

Dude, some major cities don't even have broadband yet.

With the lag problem solved, then, these services are poised to take over the industry - and end the "console market" as we know it: "2009 may be the end of the golden era of video games as the first cloud models for games are announced."

Because, as we all know, games are only played on consoles. And all games are online as well.

But then this is the guy that thought Too Human was worth releasing.

 

[.[B@lL15T1C].]

I'd hate to not physically own the game I was playing and too human is shite so I don't care what this guy's opinion is.

 

[Abedeus]

I would care about it more if it was Gabe Newell.

This dude? I don't know, I don't care about.

 

[GamerLuck]

You know, this actually makes me LESS worried about cloud gaming and all that... Ever since Dyak flipped his lid over Too Human's reviews (I believe he was quoted saying "People just dont GET my game!") i have stopped caring about what the man says... And who the hell is he to determine when the "Golden Age" is going to end? Honestly, i think Peter Molynoue has got competition for most pretentious figure in the gaming industry