Analyst Predicts Difficult Years Ahead for Xbox 360

[Logan Westbrook]

Analyst Predicts Difficult Years Ahead for Xbox 360

A market analyst firm believes that Microsoft's console is on the "downside of its lifecycle."

Kinect, the new motion controller for the Xbox 360 [http://www.gamestop.com/Catalog/ProductDetails.aspx?product_id=75847], might be designed with the casual market in mind, but analysts DFC Intelligence think that despite its best efforts, Microsoft will struggle to garner mass market appeal with the device.

"In terms of changing the overall video game hardware platform market share we see [Kinect] having a negligible impact," said DFC in a monthly brief. "...Microsoft is putting almost all its eggs into the Kinect as a way to appeal to the 'casual' consumer and expand its user base ... Unfortunately, based on what we have seen, DFC continues to feel that Microsoft is going to struggle to expand beyond its core audience."

DFC thinks that the Microsoft's biggest problem is that it is not an entertainment company and so it's efforts to create a Wii Sports or Wii Fit of its own are unlikely to succeed: "Almost every time Microsoft has tried to emulate successful entertainment products they have failed ... [with the exception of] PC gaming prior to the Xbox, and then the Xbox platform itself."

"In its business software, Microsoft has been successful in analyzing what works for users of other products and incrementally incorporating those features into Microsoft products," DFC said. "The problem is developing hit entertainment products simply does not follow that model."

It seems a little premature to write off Kinect at this incredibly early stage, when the advertising and buzz is just getting started. Considering we don't know for sure how much Kinect is going to cost or what will come bundled with it, making solid predictions about how the mass market will react seems like it would be incredibly difficult.

Gamasutra [http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/29200/Analyst_Xbox_360_Clearly_On_The_Downside_Of_Its_Lifecycle.php]





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[vrbtny]

Wasn't this sorta universally(aka on the internet) already known.

Motion Control is like to gamers what twilight is to Proper Vampire lover. (Oh no, the inevitable twighlight hate speech.

 

[Cherry Cola]

Wasn't this sorta universally(aka on the internet) already known.

Motion Control is like to gamers what twilight is to Proper Vampire lover. (Oh no, the inevitable twighlight hate speech.

Which is an surprisingly accurate comparison, as both gamers and "proper vampire" lovers complain that their siblings motion control and sparkly emos aren't "real", one in terms of not "real hardcore gaming", the other in terms of not "real vampires", even though there aren't any definitive rules on what makes either.

 

[dochmbi]

Kinect will fail because in order for it to succeed, it would have to overcome incredibly tough odds. Not only does Kinect have to be reasonably priced and have some games bundled with it, it also has to be a significant upgrade in user experience from the Wii.

I don't know, it seems like those people who enjoy casual easy-to-pick-up-and-play games already have a Wii, it seems to me that Microsoft would need to target hardcore audience with the Kinect, since there really is no compelling reason for casuals to buy kinect.

Maybe the dichotomy isn't that severe, but even then why would I buy a kinect unless I already have a Wii and a xbox 360.

 

[Epitome]

Wasn't this sorta universally(aka on the internet) already known.

Motion Control is like to gamers what twilight is to Proper Vampire lover. (Oh no, the inevitable twighlight hate speech.

Which is an surprisingly accurate comparison, as both gamers and "proper vampire" lovers complain that their siblings motion control and sparkly emos aren't "real", one in terms of not "real hardcore gaming", the other in terms of not "real vampires", even though there aren't any definitive rules on what makes either.

Still without it having definitive rules it does have recognisable qualities. I think of it as
an "I may not know art, but I know what I like" situation. Its not hard to tell that kinnect
wont appeal long term to hardcore audiences, how long before throwing out own grenades and wielding our own blades just becomes effort.

 

[rembrandtqeinstein]

Why both move and kinect will fail: the gamers who are interested in motion controls ALREADY have a Wii. The gamers that aren't interested have the ps3/360. Unless MS has the equivalent of Halo for kinect it will never get off the ground. They also don't have a balance board which is a major selling point for Wii.

 

[mogamer]

Kinect will fail because in order for it to succeed, it would have to overcome incredibly tough odds. Not only does Kinect have to be reasonably priced and have some games bundled with it, it also has to be a significant upgrade in user experience from the Wii.

I don't know, it seems like those people who enjoy casual easy-to-pick-up-and-play games already have a Wii, it seems to me that Microsoft would need to target hardcore audience with the Kinect, since there really is no compelling reason for casuals to play on a Kinect.

I feel you're correct about this. What compelling reason is there for someone to buy a Xbox 360 and Kinect over a Wii? The Wii is already well established and is half the cost. The only people who will "embrace" Kinect are people who already have a Xbox 360 and also want or have family members who want a Wii (and don't already have one). I doubt that this is a large enough demographic to have Kinect succeed. As far as the Xbox 360 being HD while the Wii isn't, I know several people (my wife being one of them) who can barely tell the difference between a Blu-Ray or a DVD playing on my HDTV!

 

[tehroc]

They have already reported, most likely a year ago, that they have pushed the graphics as far as they can really go on the 360. Graphically 360 has maybe a year at most. (let's face it the 360's video card is what 5 years old?) So where's those AI upgrades 360? The same article said they could improve other qualities of the 360 still.

 

[GeneticallyModifiedDucks]

As much as I agree with that statement, I know that all analysts are full of it.

 

[Zerbye]

I like how the analysis is based largely on Microsoft's track record as not being an "entertainment company" with the exception of its console hardware division. That's a pretty bizarre exception, given that they're predicting the success of the console. This marketing firm even fails in circular logic.

 

[VanityGirl]

I don't believe that the 360 itself will go on a downward spiral. It's cheap and many people enjoy the online.

I do believe, that both the Move and Kinect will not sell well, mainly because of their reported high prices.

 

[Royas]

While I have no interested in Kinect (if I wanted motion control, I'd have a Wii already) I find the analyst's statements to be somewhat ignorant. The problem is Microsoft isn't an entertainment company? Maybe that's not their core, but they've been selling the Xbox for almost 10 years, I think it can be safely said that their entertainment division has some experience by this point. For crying out loud, Nintendo was originally a playing card company! Not exactly an easy jump, from playing cards to a very successful video game company.

They can't think of Microsoft like it was one company. It's not, it's a gigantic corporation with multiple divisions and interests going at once. Their gaming division is, in fact, an entertainment company, as large as most other entire corporations all by themselves. They've bought out enough experienced companies and integrated them that by this point, they have the experience in the field. Kinect may still be a bad idea, but not because MS doesn't know what they are doing.

 

[The Rockerfly]

Meh it's just a prediction I analyse it's going to be quite a good year because of the new slim, kinect and the range of hardcore exclusives such as Halo Reach.

I called it here first that Microsoft will continue making a shit ton of money for the rest of 2010

 

[Ralphfromdk]

Meh it's just a prediction I analyse it's going to be quite a good year because of the new slim, kinect and the range of hardcore exclusives such as Halo Reach.

I called it here first that Microsoft will continue making a shit ton of money for the rest of 2010

i hear you... i mean... MS already has the most "hardcore" console... that's what they do... screw motion controls... they make enough from the real gamers

 

[Autofaux]

While I have no interested in Kinect (if I wanted motion control, I'd have a Wii already) I find the analyst's statements to be somewhat ignorant. The problem is Microsoft isn't an entertainment company? Maybe that's not their core, but they've been selling the Xbox for almost 10 years, I think it can be safely said that their entertainment division has some experience by this point. For crying out loud, Nintendo was originally a playing card company! Not exactly an easy jump, from playing cards to a very successful video game company.

They can't think of Microsoft like it was one company. It's not, it's a gigantic corporation with multiple divisions and interests going at once. Their gaming division is, in fact, an entertainment company, as large as most other entire corporations all by themselves. They've bought out enough experienced companies and integrated them that by this point, they have the experience in the field. Kinect may still be a bad idea, but not because MS doesn't know what they are doing.

I agree, Microsoft's separate divisions are fairly autonomous in their application of business. Problem I have is that while Microsoft's divisions work apart from each other and with each other in a symbiotic fashion, the Microsoft way of doing business still stinks.

Microsoft seems to have marketed Kinect into a very niche market, and Microsoft does not do hardware as well as its competitors. The 360 was not well designed upon release and it has taken more than a few years to work out the kinks. Only thing is with the 360, it was easy to build upon the foundations of the Xbox. The Kinect is a big push and I don't think Microsoft have targeted the right market segment, and the Kinect is a brand new product with no basis upon which to build. Microsoft is making nothing clear on how Kinect will integrate into the living space.

There's a lot of hype and a lot of guesswork going on. Nintendo may have started off doing playing cards and love hotels but it came into the industry knowing exactly what it wanted to achieve, building directly off the solutions to problems the industry had at the time, with proliferation of shovelware and lack of software regulation. It was simple, it had a goal and the NES was very successful.

Microsoft has been grabbing fruitlessly at the casual apple for years now with the 360 and the Kinect.. I just don't see it scratching that itch as well as they are hoping. Just my observations, however.

 

[Ironic Pirate]

I've said it before, so here goes.

What makes the Wii sell is just that. The "the". People see it in commercials, and they don't see graphics or even games, the see people having fun. It's transended the status of a gaming console in the eye of the public and become it's own thing.

Notice how they rarely advertise anything other than Wii Sports? Because they don't want people to think about buying video games, theres a stigma with those. People buy a "fun machine". And the games they do advertise with commercials are Wii Fit and Mario Kart, a fitness thing that seems like it's adding functionality rather than being a game, and fucking Mario. Everybody loves Mario.

 

[Sebenko]

I just want Kineckt and Move to be released so we can stop repeating ourselves. Even if we are proved wrong. I hope not though.

I want to be right. It would entertain me.

 

[SenseOfTumour]

I think part of the problem is they're going to price themselves out of the market, the eyetoy was about £30 with a set of games, and it was...kinda fun.

eyetoy 2, or kinect, or PSMove or whatever is going to cost about £120 minimum considering the dollar to pounds exchange rate and the 'we love screwing over Britain' tax that is placed on all games and consoles. ($150? that'll be £200 please Sir).

I want a LOT of game for £120, not the eyetoy again but in HD (yawn). If they can prove to me it actually works well enough to be included as an option in mainstream games, then it's maybe worth the investment, but I already cynically feel it's going to be another lump of plastic consigned to the little used peripherals cupboard along with various steering wheels, dance mats, maracas and the like.

I'm not sure if I'm looking back on Guitar Hero and making a judgement based on stuff I didn't know then, as I didn't join in on that til GH3, but I sense that I finally put down the cash based on a reduced 'guitar and game' pack, and the knowledge that it wasn't a 'one game gadget' like the £150 Mech Commander controller, but I'd get more use out of it by buying subsequent games. (still think it's a shame RB and GH couldn't have met in the middle somewhere in terms of making their hardware compatible in both directions however, who has room for two drumkits and 4 guitars?)

I just can't help but think they're still trying to get a piece of the juicy Wii action, completely failing to realise that Nintendo understand the audience they target, and you're just not going to get 70-90 year olds queueing up in the care home to play Gears/God of War by waggling their arms about. Nintendo however DID manage to make that happen by trying to ignore the video game part entirely and make it about having fun with other people. (Kinda restating what someone above said, but it's true, I think).

Of course, in return, Wii can stop making ultra violent fighting games, that's the 360/PS3's area dammit

 

[SenseOfTumour]

I've said it before, so here goes.

What makes the Wii sell is just that. The "the". People see it in commercials, and they don't see graphics or even games, the see people having fun. It's transended the status of a gaming console in the eye of the public and become it's own thing.

Notice how they rarely advertise anything other than Wii Sports? Because they don't want people to think about buying video games, theres a stigma with those. People buy a "fun machine". And the games they do advertise with commercials are Wii Fit and Mario Kart, a fitness thing that seems like it's adding functionality rather than being a game, and fucking Mario. Everybody loves Mario.

This guy, I meant in my post

(just thought I should be fair and quote him.

Really, have Nintendo EVER really been cool? really? Mario? Zelda? Starfox? Yet they're a powerhouse corporation in the world of gaming. To me that says 'cool is irrelevant, dont market stuff as cool, market it as fun.'

Which is why the wiimote works as a Wii item, and why it's maybe going to struggle when it's as part of a pair of consoles that rate HD and anti aliasing over character,fun, and storytelling. (not saying PS3 and 360 can't do the above, saying it's more what the Wii is known for is all, before the flames start)

I probably should deal with the 360 thing too, are Sony not doing pretty much the same as MS here? Throwing millions into remarketing the eyetoy as the saviour of gaming? Seems a little anti MS, unless they're genuinely betting 51% of the company on Kinect being a success, in which case I think Bill's kinda lost it. Personally I don't see Kinect or Move being a success but I do see the PS3 and 360 continuing to be a strong platform for gaming for a good few years yet.

 

[Jared]

I really dont think its gonna suffer that hard. Games are still coming out for it which look better and better, and, I am sure she still has life in it, the new lite version proves that for me.

Yes, it may seem somewhat dated, but, shes still got life in her