Analyst Says Free-to-Play Market Will Break $2 Billion by 2015

Andy Chalk

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Nov 12, 2002
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Analyst Says Free-to-Play Market Will Break $2 Billion by 2015


Analyst group DFC Intelligence [http://www.dfcint.com/index.php] predicts that the English-language free-to-play market will grow to a value of over $2 billion by 2015.

"Why buy the cow if you can get the milk for free?" somebody's mom once said. It's a fair question, and also the basis for our entire free-market system: I have something, you want it, give me money and the world goes 'round. But North American game companies have recently begun to discover what those in other parts of the world have known for years: "Free" doesn't necessarily mean that a lot of cash isn't being thrown around.

The current English-language free-to-play industry is worth $250 million, according to a new DFC Intelligence report, hardly a paltry amount. Yet in just a half-decade that value is expected to balloon to over $2 billion, thanks in large part to maturing systems and a growing realization that "free-to-play" isn't necessarily synonymous with sub-standard game quality.

"For many Korean companies the market in North America has not taken off nearly as fast as they expected," said analyst Insun Yoon. "Much of this can be attributed to the immature infrastructure and a lack of established payment and service mechanisms. The good news is that this is starting to change and consumers are starting to realize that the game play of top high-end F2P games can be quite sophisticated."

There will be an estimated 128 million registered users of F2P games by the end of the year but that number is "fairly meaningless," Yoon explained. What matters is conversion rate and fortunately for the industry, things have been going well in that regard. "Once a consumer is able to get a game downloaded and running conversion rates for high-end F2P games tend to be fairly high," he said.

"F2P games can have multiple payment options and most successful games look to bundle products in creative packages such as the ability to buy a monthly or annual subscription that include a set amount of virtual currency," added David Cole of DFC. "Creativity in marketing, packaging and distribution are the keys to generating increased revenue."

It may seem paradoxical, but the switch to a free model can actually be very lucrative for middling MMOs that can't quite cut it in a WoW-dominated world. Lord of the Rings Online [http://www.turbine.com/] in June.

Source: IndustryGamers [http://www.industrygamers.com/news/english-language-free-to-play-games-to-reach-2-billion-by-2015-says-dfc/]


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Vladamir69

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Dec 18, 2008
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I have to say that all off the f2p games ive played are better then WOW in every aspect. I find that when the company has to get money buy enticing people not by just forcing them to pay them to play, the quality of the game increases.
 

Owlslayer

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Nov 26, 2009
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2 billion is a long way to go.
I quite liked DDO, and played it when it became F2P. Too bad it was really hard to get past level 12 or 13 without paying a penny. but i guess when you get to that point, you're supposed to be hooked enough to buy all that extra continent. Not me, i grinded a lot and unlocked several higher-level areas just by collecting that in-game cash (DDO points? can't remember the exact name).
My point is: I hope those analysts did take account for those players who would rather grind then pay, or those who would just enjoy the free continent.
 

FieryTrainwreck

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jewmaniac said:
I have to say that all off the f2p games ive played are better then WOW in every aspect. I find that when the company has to get money buy enticing people not by just forcing them to pay them to play, the quality of the game increases.
I call bullshit. It's fashionable to hate on WoW, but there's no denying its supreme polish and breadth of content. F2P equivalents simply don't measure up on these fronts. That's not to say you wouldn't derive greater enjoyment from a F2P game for any number of reasons. I just don't think you can list "quality" among those reasons. Not with a straight face, anyways.
 

Jared

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Jul 14, 2009
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Thats a large target to reacah, and, they have also set a long limit there - Feels to mne as if someone is tossing out ballpark figures
 

skorpion352

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Apr 6, 2008
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Xzi said:
FieryTrainwreck said:
jewmaniac said:
I have to say that all off the f2p games ive played are better then WOW in every aspect. I find that when the company has to get money buy enticing people not by just forcing them to pay them to play, the quality of the game increases.
I call bullshit. It's fashionable to hate on WoW, but there's no denying its supreme polish and breadth of content. F2P equivalents simply don't measure up on these fronts. That's not to say you wouldn't derive greater enjoyment from a F2P game for any number of reasons. I just don't think you can list "quality" among those reasons. Not with a straight face, anyways.
Agreed. There are some good free to play games out there, but none of them are MMOs. Trust me, I was a WoW player some time ago, quit out of boredom, played roughly a week of every F2P MMO out there, and then quickly rejoined WoW, realizing just how much I was missing out on with those free crappy MMOs.

Obviously I quit WoW again later, but F2P is turrible unless it's a match-based game like League of Legends or GunZ or something.
id like to point you in the direction of lotro. it is a quality game and will be f2p in just under 2 weeks. ive played the beta of lotros f2p and the quality has not descreased, its still the same quality game it has always been. ive also played ddo and it too is a quality game