Activision Shares Down Thanks to World of Warcraft Slide

[Andy Chalk]

Activision Shares Down Thanks to World of Warcraft Slide

Despite posting great financials for the quarter and the year, Activision's share value dropped more than six percent on news that World of Warcraft subscriptions continue to decline.

Behold Activision, which is having a pretty good year. In its most recent financial statement, the company reported third-quarter earnings of $148 million, nearly tripling the outlook it provided in early August. Quarterly profits outpaced analysts' expectations, leading Activision to raise its year-end forecast. On top of all that, Modern Warfare 3 [http://www.amazon.com/Call-Duty-Modern-Warfare-Xbox-360/dp/B00503E8S2/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1320960717&sr=8-1] was every bit as big as expected and may ring up 18 million unit sales by the end of the year.

Yet Activision's share price tumbled 6.5 percent on the news. The problem, according to Citigroup analysts Neil Doshi and Mark Mahaney, is lost 800,000 subscribers [http://www.amazon.com/World-Warcraft-Cataclysm-Pc/dp/B002I0HKIU/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1320960972&sr=8-1] over the quarter. That's problematic because subscription income from games like World of Warcraft - and let's be honest, the only game like World of Warcraft is World of Warcraft - represents 44 percent of Activision's business, the largest single slice of the pie.

And although it's still the big dog in the subscription-based MMO pack with 10.3 million users, nothing, not even WoW, can take a hit like that and not feel it. It's even worse if you look back over the past year: from Skyrim [http://www.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/104134-World-of-Warcraft-Tops-12-Million-Subscribers] and, you guessed it, Modern Warfare 3.

Source: Bloomberg [http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-11-10/activision-shares-fall-on-drop-in-warcraft-online-players.html]


Permalink

 

[TitanAtlas]

I see the problem of the decline right there...

Skyrim... MMO killing withouth even trying...

(killing is a strong word, but hey... don't give a dam... Skyrim!!)

 

[The Human Torch]

If WoW ever goes down to like, 2 million subscribers, they would have to fire half the company to remain profitable.

 

[gigastar]

Activision isnt losing money out of this anyway, what with MW3 currently outselling kiddies chocolate bars by 10-1 one day to a week.

Still im someone who wants to see Activision follow in Atari's footsteps.

 

[samsonguy920]

Now we wait and see if Blizzard overreacts and does something stupid with WoW, or they wake up and realize they are just boring their players to death anymore and put their heads together to revamp the game as it needs to be.
I wouldn't be surprised if Blizzard is forced to start the reveal on their second MMO they have been working on. That will bring the stock back up, though it will also pile the work on the developers on the project.

 

[Nico4]

So because their stocks are down, Activision (being money greedy as they usually are) will probably be paniced and say "quick! we need to do something to get the share back up!", where someone will say: "I know! Let's have two Call of Duty games out a year!". Reply: "Perfect!"

 

[Imper1um]

Now we wait and see if Blizzard overreacts and does something stupid with WoW, or they wake up and realize they are just boring their players to death anymore and put their heads together to revamp the game as it needs to be.
I wouldn't be surprised if Blizzard is forced to start the reveal on their second MMO they have been working on. That will bring the stock back up, though it will also pile the work on the developers on the project.

This.

I'm tired of them looming this MMO over everyone's head saying it's done. This is what I imagine Blizzard is doing:

*meanwhile, at Blizzard HQ*
CEO: Okay, so we copied half the fights from previous expansion, and took some more fights from the expansion before that. We got the other 3/4 of the year to do whatever we want--

Runner: Excuse me, sir, communication from Activision.

CEO: Holy balls, guys, we have lost 6% on our stock price. Activision is telling us that we have to start working again.

Senior Development Manager: But we're not equipped to work more than 5 hours a week, sir.

CEO: Okay, well, let's just tease that we're working on Titan and its going to be awesome.

PR Manager: We've done that for the last 3 years. Last time we said that we're working on titan, it only brought us up by 0.01% in the shares.

CEO: Patch Diablo III's beta with some lose files and text moved around?

D3 Head Producer: Tried that. No one cared.

CEO: Announce Titan?

Titan Head Producer: (hits the Bong) Yeah, we...umm... we got the name Titan.

CEO: We're screwed.

 

[samsonguy920]

Activision isnt losing money out of this anyway, what with MW3 currently outselling kiddies chocolate bars by 10-1 one day to a week.

Still I'm someone who wants to see Activision follow in Atari's footsteps.

No, but it is a big sign to Kotick that it is time something gets done. Losing that many people from your only MMO is a sign that only more will follow unless something gets done. When the subscribers lost hits over a million, then the income starts smelling of decay.
In Atari's footsteps...do you mean the original Atari? Because then you are saying you want Kotick to make nothing but crappy business decisions and then just let Vivendi sell Activision/Blizzard off piecemeal.
I don't see Bobby doing that. Activision's one fault is overdoing some titles, but otherwise they do have strong business sense. They don't embrace crap DRM like EA or Ubisoft, and even with all of Bobby's rants about wanting to squeeze money out of people, his actual track record says otherwise. It is weird to say, but right now Activision is the gaming good guy this year. EA could still commit corporate suicide if they don't handle Origin right, and from what I have been hearing so far, Battlefield 3 is coming up short in its promises. Modern Warfare 3 has potential to come out the winner this time.

 

[Vanguard_Ex]

WoW's dominance will remain, I think, but nothing like it's known in the past. Especially with how promising GW2 looks...

 

[samsonguy920]

Now we wait and see if Blizzard overreacts and does something stupid with WoW, or they wake up and realize they are just boring their players to death anymore and put their heads together to revamp the game as it needs to be.
I wouldn't be surprised if Blizzard is forced to start the reveal on their second MMO they have been working on. That will bring the stock back up, though it will also pile the work on the developers on the project.

This.

I'm tired of them looming this MMO over everyone's head saying it's done. This is what I imagine Blizzard is doing:

*meanwhile, at Blizzard HQ*
CEO: Okay, so we copied half the fights from previous expansion, and took some more fights from the expansion before that. We got the other 3/4 of the year to do whatever we want--

Runner: Excuse me, sir, communication from Activision.

CEO: Holy balls, guys, we have lost 6% on our stock price. Activision is telling us that we have to start working again.

Senior Development Manager: But we're not equipped to work more than 5 hours a week, sir.

CEO: Okay, well, let's just tease that we're working on Titan and its going to be awesome.

PR Manager: We've done that for the last 3 years. Last time we said that we're working on titan, it only brought us up by 0.01% in the shares.

CEO: Patch Diablo III's beta with some lose files and text moved around?

D3 Head Producer: Tried that. No one cared.

CEO: Announce Titan?

Titan Head Producer: (hits the Bong) Yeah, we...umm... we got the name Titan.

CEO: We're screwed.

A perfect example of Acti/Blizz doing the overreactionary stupid thing. Nicely put.
No, it is high time they took the covers off their new MMO and show us real product. Quit teasing us with a name that won't even be on the box. And once they release the new one, shut WoW down, give it a good renovation and refit, and release it 2.0 style. It would even help if they make and release a new Warcraft RTS to help set the stage for the new world. And erase the fucking pandas. In fact that would be the perfect setting: Play as the Horde, Alliance, or Scourge to eradicate the Panda infestation from Azeroth and Kalimdor. WoW 2.0 would take place afterward, where the Horde and Alliance take the gloves off and we get true battlefields between the factions instead of only these tournament games.

 

[BabyRaptor]

Two words: New content.

Actual new content. With actual difficulty for those of us who want it, and an easy mode for the people who want that. Make a clear cut difference. Don't listen to the people who whine that they can't have the best gear for doing nothing.

Oh, and stop worrying about ways to charge us for shit. Make us actually want to play the goddamn game and the money will appear.

 

[Jimijab]

And with Guild Wars 2 which is coming out soon (I HAVE NO IDEA) looking very good and no monthly fee, I can guess that more WoW subs will decline fairly rapidly.

 

[Lunar Templar]

Those losses could grow even worse over the holiday quarter, they said, thanks to competition from big releases like Skyrim and, you guessed it, Modern Warfare 3.

this makes me giggle in a way that can not be expressed by typing
(no i've never like Blizzard or Activision how could you tell?)

 

[Eveonline100]

Activision isnt losing money out of this anyway, what with MW3 currently outselling kiddies chocolate bars by 10-1 one day to a week.

Still im someone who wants to see Activision follow in Atari's footsteps.

wht do you mean by that?

 

[Baldr]

Now we wait and see if Blizzard overreacts and does something stupid with WoW, or they wake up and realize they are just boring their players to death anymore and put their heads together to revamp the game as it needs to be.
I wouldn't be surprised if Blizzard is forced to start the reveal on their second MMO they have been working on. That will bring the stock back up, though it will also pile the work on the developers on the project.

This.

I'm tired of them looming this MMO over everyone's head saying it's done. This is what I imagine Blizzard is doing:

*meanwhile, at Blizzard HQ*
CEO: Okay, so we copied half the fights from previous expansion, and took some more fights from the expansion before that. We got the other 3/4 of the year to do whatever we want--

Runner: Excuse me, sir, communication from Activision.

CEO: Holy balls, guys, we have lost 6% on our stock price. Activision is telling us that we have to start working again.

Senior Development Manager: But we're not equipped to work more than 5 hours a week, sir.

CEO: Okay, well, let's just tease that we're working on Titan and its going to be awesome.

PR Manager: We've done that for the last 3 years. Last time we said that we're working on titan, it only brought us up by 0.01% in the shares.

CEO: Patch Diablo III's beta with some lose files and text moved around?

D3 Head Producer: Tried that. No one cared.

CEO: Announce Titan?

Titan Head Producer: (hits the Bong) Yeah, we...umm... we got the name Titan.

CEO: We're screwed.

A perfect example of Acti/Blizz doing the overreactionary stupid thing. Nicely put.
No, it is high time they took the covers off their new MMO and show us real product. Quit teasing us with a name that won't even be on the box. And once they release the new one, shut WoW down, give it a good renovation and refit, and release it 2.0 style. It would even help if they make and release a new Warcraft RTS to help set the stage for the new world. And erase the fucking pandas. In fact that would be the perfect setting: Play as the Horde, Alliance, or Scourge to eradicate the Panda infestation from Azeroth and Kalimdor. WoW 2.0 would take place afterward, where the Horde and Alliance take the gloves off and we get true battlefields between the factions instead of only these tournament games.

They specifically said last year that they are keeping it under covers until October 2012 at the earliest.

 

[Gather]

That explains the "Pay a full years subscription receive Diablo 3 for FREE!" Deal they had going on.

Edit: Wait no, just crafty password stealers I deleted the moment I looked at the title.

 

[LorienvArden]

Because then you are saying you want Kotick to make nothing but crappy business decisions and then just let Vivendi sell Activision/Blizzard off piecemeal.
I don't see Bobby doing that. Activision's one fault is overdoing some titles, but otherwise they do have strong business sense. They don't embrace crap DRM like EA or Ubisoft(snip)

Time for another ...
OBJECTION !!!
Crappy business decisions ?
My - look the way WoW handles balancing before Kotick and with Kotick at the helm. It ain't pretty.
Not supporting local Lan mode for the most important game in competitive RTS history ?
Not embracing DRM like Ubisoft ? Sorry, have you heard of Battlenet 2.0 ? What gives you the idea that this always on DRM would not be DRM ?
Not supporting Mods for Diablo 3, map marketplace for SCII ?
Those decisions will throttle the creative scene around these games, and in the case of D3, it outright kills it.

NOT SMART. Blizzard games are successfull because they can be played forever and ever after. If you butcher user created content, you have to ramp up your own development for several years to make up for the creativity your fans would give you for free.

It gives Torchelight 2 ample amunition against its competitor, as it can brag "Why yes, you can play your game anytime, anywhere and how you like it!"
The only way they got away with Bnet2.0 is because there is 0.0 competition for Starcraft2. Nothing comes even close to it.

With WoW it's an entirely different cup of tea. They slept for too long to realize that the market has developed way ahead of them. The technology, the storytelling and the mechanics have grown over the years - but WoW only imitated during those times. They addepted some promising concepts from other games and integrated them into WoW, but never as successfull as other mmos. Now, a fair share of their customers outgrew them too. The IP, for what I know about it, has been used up. Unless you reroll the scenario completly it simply can't generate enough convincing story to support several years of gaming. They are down the barrel with this expansions... pandaren COULD have been cool, if they where presented more like the kick-ass samurai/ferocious monks etc. But no! gotta apease the kids... make em´fuzzy grinning cuddly bears!
Get your carebear sticker on your way out, see you in another MMO. (GW2 for me)

 

[iLikeHippos]

Good, good. This not only means that hopefully some day in the future Metzen will go unemployed, but also that more MMO:s may go on the market.

Let's just hope that D3 flopps, and no one buys the SC2 DLC...sorry, "expansion". Down Blizzard! Down!

Well.... This is awkwardly ironic, what with your Illidan Stormrage avatar and all... *Cough*
(Seeing as Illidan Stormrage and his storyline was who rang in the golden age of practically MMO freaking monopoly as The Burning Crusade came out, people would think of you as a supporter for Blizzard. )
However, when Titan comes out, (which I suspect will be an SC MMO right after their final expansion from SC II Legacy of the Void) their styling reputation not only from their SC II RTS, but from their works from WoW, will surely make a huge comeback. I wouldn't remain so optimistic of being pessimistic. Just saying.

OT; I am convinced Blizzard saw this drop of recline a mile away, and so has other works on the way. Diablo III and Heart of the Swarm expansion are just about to be released, which can turn the tides quite significantly for at least a good year or so. Not only that, but as I mentioned before, Titan will be fresh and probably dominate the MMO market once more, right after Legacy of the Void.

Just my theory, anyways.