Analyst Values Team Fortress 2 Hat Trade at $50 Million

[Logan Westbrook]

Analyst Values Team Fortress 2 Hat Trade at $50 Million

Team Fortress 2's digital milliners could be raking it in.


You might scoff at people going crazy over virtual hats, but as it turns out, it's a surprisingly serious business. According to financial analyst Paul Manwaring, the value of the virtual goods in the Team Fortress 2 [http://www.amazon.com/Team-Fortress-2-Pc/dp/B00140S21O/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1324160912&sr=8-1] marketplace is somewhere in the region of $50 million.


Using a series of estimates - often rather conservative estimates that err on the side of caution - Manwaring concluded that millions of dollars worth of virtual items have been injected into the Team Fortress 2 economy since its creation in 2010. According to Manwaring's calculations, the combination of weapon drops, keys, and hats adds up to at least $52.7 million, and probably quite a lot more.

Manwaring used statistics gleaned from Steam, as well as information from other sources about weapons and the value of keys and hats, to arrive at this figure. Wherever possible, he used the lowest values he could, so not to over-inflate his total. However, he stressed that for the most part these goods would remain virtual and Valve was not going to be skiing down a cash mountain built on digital hats any time soon.

You can read Manwaring's entire article here [http://theonlinesociety.com/2011/12/the-50-million-virtual-millinery/], which includes all the statistics and estimates he used to reach his conclusion. It's an interesting read, even if - like me - you're not that well versed on financial matters.

Source: Kotaku [http://kotaku.com/5869042/analyst-pegs-team-fortress-2-hat-economy-at-50-million]




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[Itsthefuzz]

I sold my HOUWAR and like 4 buds a few months ago for 420 dollars on paypal.

 

[Roofstone]

"Throughout history, men have worn hats as a way of showing how much better they are than other men. ?I buy hats,? a behatted man seems to say. ?I am better than you!?

Or in other words, those hats do look rather magnificent... Gotta catch em all, I suppose?

 

[Catalyst6]

It's all interpersonal trading, so Valve doesn't really get that much off of it anyways except for weapon and key sales.

Since anyone that buys a hat off the Mann Co. store deserves what they pay for it.

 

[Alssadar]

Doesn't help I just added $5.28 to that total.
I needed that key, and I wouldn't mind a Tough Guy's Toque and the spy's Fedora.
*Shrug*

 

[ActionDan]

I still think that the TF2 hat market is extortionate as fuck. Not the Valve market, the player run market.

 

[Chemical Alia]

Thats pretty hilarious.

I would like to see a before F2P/after F2P statistic though.

The month that TF2 went free to play, the revenue of my items tripled. Since then it's slowly gone down, but is a little higher than it was before.

 

[gigastar]

I sold my HOUWAR and like 4 buds a few months ago for 420 dollars on paypal.

As if we needed more telling that wherever theres a lmited edition item, theres someone willing to fork out thier entire bank account for it.

 

[bjj hero]

I can honestly say I just don't get it. People really pay money for fake hats?

It all seems a bit sad to me.

 

[Mr. Omega]

Nice to see it's successful. However, I'm curious to see just how much of that is just from the keys, considering it's the #1 item in the store. That's the only real complaint I have with the entire Mann-conomy: it's biggest money-maker is a scam.

 

[cthulhumythos]

I can honestly say I just don't get it. People really pay money for fake hats?

It all seems a bit sad to me.

people use money for fake stuff all the time. the only difference here is that they are silly hats.

 

[Shockolate]

A friend of mine sold his Gentlemenn's Service Medal for $200.

A friend of his sold an unuual hat for $500.

Then again, they're university students who barely get by.

 

[Voxgizer]

Makes me wonder how much my Bill's Hat and Vintage Football Helmet are worth.

 

[Magnicon]

And this is how the F2P model is supposed to work. At the end of the day the hats don't have an effect on how the game plays. Its just a fun thing that people like to spend their money on.

This is how games designed for F2P used to be, then at some point they realized they could squeeze out just a little bit more money by selling stuff that directly impacts the game, which always makes the overall experience less enjoyable for everyone. Everquest 2 and LOTR online are good examples of games that are perverting the F2P model in an unhealthy way.

Make a quality game, offer the full game play experience for free, and sell fun cosmetic stuff to make enough money to keep the game going. Its proven to work.

Just one more example of Valve showing everyone how its done. Soon to be Guild Wars 2 also.

 

[Magnicon]

Edit: Double Post apparently. Forums run like ass now after the change.

 

[Valanthe]

And this is how the F2P model is supposed to work. At the end of the day the hats don't have an effect on how the game plays. Its just a fun thing that people like to spend their money on.

This is how games designed for F2P used to be, then at some point they realized they could squeeze out just a little bit more money by selling stuff that directly impacts the game, which always makes the overall experience less enjoyable for everyone. Everquest 2 and LOTR online are good examples of games that are perverting the F2P model in an unhealthy way.

Make a quality game, offer the full game play experience for free, and sell fun cosmetic stuff to make enough money to keep the game going. Its proven to work.

Just one more example of Valve showing everyone how its done. Soon to be Guild Wars 2 also.

These forums need a like button...

I've recently been working my through a whole bunch of free games, and I've seen some -incredibly- bad examples (Here's looking at you, Age of Conan) whereas in TF2 and a few others, I almost forget the item store is there (At least until I get killed by someone in a cooler hat than me, then I feel jealous.)

 

[The_root_of_all_evil]

Everquest 2 and LOTR online are good examples of games that are perverting the F2P model in an unhealthy way.

Nods. Especially as the credit is game-locked, so you can't take LOTR credit to DDO or similar.

And F2P's are easy to spot in EQ2/LOTR, while not quite so different in TF2.

Despite all the bile raised against Valve, I think the only morally 'dodgy' thing they're doing is the pricing at the moment - and that in itself is justifiable by market economics.

 

[Baresark]

Haha, I can't believe no one has picked up on the irony of the analysts name, it being the the Manco store.

Paul Manwaring = Paul "Man Wearing"

OT: Analysts are funny folks.

This is the best example of a F2P model. There are slight perversion to this. For instance, I was playing in the beta of Blacklight Retribution only to find that the unique character items that change how you look have a time limit. That was the end for me. I'm not interested in items that I lose in 3 days.