Analysis Shows Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare Likely to Sell 40% Less Than Ghosts

Sarah LeBoeuf

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Analysis Shows Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare Likely to Sell 40% Less Than Ghosts



With Amazon pre-orders showing a series in decline over the last two years, analysts at Cowen and Company believe that Call of Duty has peaked.

With a week to go until Analysts at Cowen and Company [http://www.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/134179-Call-of-Duty-Advanced-Warfare-Leaked-Releases-November-4-Update] have used the pre-order data to determine Advanced Warfare sales will be "down meaningfully" compared to last year's release of Call of Duty: Ghosts. That would mark the second year of down-trending sales for the mega-franchise, which means "it is prudent to assume it has peaked," according to the analysis.

Based on current pre-orders, Advanced Warfare is projected to sell 40% less than Ghosts and, more significantly, a whopping 70% less than 2012's Black Ops 2. Ghosts' sales were described as "troubling" by the same analysts top-selling next-gen game [http://www.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/130627-Call-of-Duty-Ghosts-Sales-Are-Troubling-Analyst-Says] in the wake of the new console launches.

Naturally, pre-orders aren't necessarily the only determining factor in video game sales. For context, Advanced Warfare is still expected to outsell Destiny, which currently holds the title of "most pre-ordered new IP of all time" according to GamesIndustry.biz [http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2014-10-27-cowen-and-co-analysis-sees-cod-pre-orders-well-down-yoy]. However, the analysts were quick to address claims that pre-orders were no longer a determining factor in game sales and offered a rebuttal: "What we think is happening is that one, pre-orders for Call of Duty are down; two, Call of Duty is normally a significant percentage of overall pre-orders; and thus three, interested parties are concluding that pre-orders are secularly declining relative to overall sales." Cowen and Company's report concluded that "pre-orders remain by far the best leading indicator of a title's likely ultimate sales." We'll be able to better determine the accuracy of that statement after Advanced Warfare's November 4 launch.

Source: Joystiq [http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2014-10-27-cowen-and-co-analysis-sees-cod-pre-orders-well-down-yoy]

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Vivi22

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The series peaked with COD4. About time pre-order numbers started to reflect that.
 

Dark Knifer

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Well it was bound to happen eventually.

Wonder what the next Triple a thing will be next.
 

ddrkreature

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Maybe people are starting to realize that CoD is a tired franchise and should take a break to find its roots again, if any exist. What will take its place is anyone's guess but the only ones coming to mind I don't think will grow into the monolith that CoD has become.
 

Sniper Team 4

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Hm...I wonder if any of that has to do with the fact that Ghosts' campaign was bad. And I mean bad. Sure, CoD games aren't known for their ground-breaking writing and storytelling in the single player, but I've had a blast playing all of them up until Ghosts. I wonder how many people out there are the same as I am, and are now a bit wary of the next CoD game. I do admit that Advanced Warfare does look like a step back in the right direction (over-the-top fun), but if this game fails me as bad as Ghosts, I'm done with the series.

It would be interesting to see this series die though, and then see what takes it place.
 

Something Amyss

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Unfortunately, this is probably more a referendum on the last game than anything else. Ghosts killed a lot of interest in the series.
 

fix-the-spade

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So after the sales peak of Modern Warfare 3, Advanced Warfare will likely mark the third consecutive year of falling sales. Given the amount of money Activision spend on Call of Duty they are not going to be happy.

It also raises a serious question for Activision, what do they when World of Warcraft, Call of Duty and Skylanders all hit terminal decline?

CoD looks like it's arcing downwards and probably won't see more than three more titles if sales drop another 75% in three years, World of Warcraft is steadily declining and even with Warlords of Draenor bump will be half the game it used to be. Skylanders is still growing, but with Disney Infinity now containing Marvel and Star Wars coming soon that's days as a growth franchise are surely numbered as well.
 

fix-the-spade

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Sniper Team 4 said:
Hm...I wonder if any of that has to do with the fact that Ghosts' campaign was bad. And I mean bad.
Let's not be polite about it, all of Ghosts was bad, really bad.
 

List

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I hope declining sale will force them to be innovative for once, or just retire this over-stretched franchise
 

Citizen Graves

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Dark Knifer said:
Well it was bound to happen eventually.

Wonder what the next Triple a thing will be next.
Why, get ready for 10 exciting years full of:

- a new iteration of Destiny every year.

- complete balancing overhaul of the competitive multiplayer every year, including addition of fun new stuff on top of the older fun stuff, completely f**king up the balance every year (so that new players can always jump right into the game, because the veterans have to get used to new sh*t and new bugs every year).

- 3 eager new Studios who will alternate development with Bungie, all of whom are wetting their pant in excitement to use all of their creative energy, blood, sweat and tears for the next decade on such an universaly beloved franchise.

- MOAR DLC-Packs (forget Day 1 DLC, in the future you'll be able to buy and download the DLC before the game even comes out!!!)

- NAZI ZOMBIES in Destiny! Just when you thought everyone was losing interest in the franchise, Nazi zombies will bring it back from the dead (btw, what is irony?)

- and Kevin Spacey.


P.S.: can anyone tell me why people won't pre-order the new game from the franchise they have been playing for every year for the last ten years? Especially after they got burned on the POS-game in that franchise that came previous to this new one? And also other exciting POS-games that were advertised as awesome to drive moar pre-orders but then turned out to be *meh* at best?

Because I don't understand it........
 

RicoADF

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fix-the-spade said:
CoD looks like it's arcing downwards and probably won't see more than three more titles if sales drop another 75% in three years, World of Warcraft is steadily declining and even with Warlords of Draenor bump will be half the game it used to be. Skylanders is still growing, but with Disney Infinity now containing Marvel and Star Wars coming soon that's days as a growth franchise are surely numbered as well.
That's why they funded Destiny, it's clearly trying to be the next CoD/WoW (thus why it has elements of both) to secure their future income.
 

Sigmund Av Volsung

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Dec 11, 2009
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Oh god yes.

Take that, Bobby Kotick! Your franchise will never again hold the same sort of sway it once did!

So... what shall be the next trend we're in for...?[sub]Not Destiny, plz[/sub][sub][sub]Plz no[/sub][/sub]
 

Smiley Face

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Zachary Amaranth said:
Unfortunately, this is probably more a referendum on the last game than anything else. Ghosts killed a lot of interest in the series.
Sniper Team 4 said:
Hm...I wonder if any of that has to do with the fact that Ghosts' campaign was bad. And I mean bad. Sure, CoD games aren't known for their ground-breaking writing and storytelling in the single player, but I've had a blast playing all of them up until Ghosts. I wonder how many people out there are the same as I am, and are now a bit wary of the next CoD game. I do admit that Advanced Warfare does look like a step back in the right direction (over-the-top fun), but if this game fails me as bad as Ghosts, I'm done with the series.

It would be interesting to see this series die though, and then see what takes it place.
I'm thinking that it's probably largely to do with this. With annual releases becoming a big thing, I'd imagine that pre-order numbers will really be affected by previous disappointments with the series. Whatever the next Battlefield is, it's not going to see pre-order numbers like 4 did, because of how much they botched things (is it fixed yet? I don't even know). That said, if reviews turn out well, those people who shifted from a pre-order stance to a wait-and-see approach might jump in, and post-launch sales would see a bump.

There's also probably a good number of people who are waiting for a good CoD game for the next-gen console, just so they can have one on hand if they feel like playing online multiplayer, but either gave Ghosts a pass due to its reviews, or didn't have a console when it launched, which given that Ghosts launched before the PS4 and Xbone, is going to be a lot of people, especially if Microsoft's temporary price cut for the Xbone pays off for them.
 

Jak2364

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I wonder what Activision will do to the three studios working on this franchise if it dies? I hope they get the opportunity to make what each of them really wants to make, and see what catches on. Maybe they'll be able to do some cool stuff once they're "unchained" from CoD.
 

ron1n

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They'll probably just find a way to repackage it again, maybe with a better looking engine:


Last couple games they've been trying to push the whole 'future technology' angle. I wouldn't be surprised if the next game goes back to regular Battlefield style 'modern warfare' and everyone will buy into it again.

I certainly don't see them going back to WW2 as that won't be sexy enough for the mainstream audience. Nor will Vietnam.

Would be glorious if it went the way of Guitar Hero though... I mean SURELY even the biggest CoD bro must have realised it's the same shit repackaged a thousand times by now?

The FPS genre is in a dire state at the moment and BF and CoD NEED to just fuck off for a few years to give it room to re-cooperate and let new games with new ideas in.
 

Britpoint

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I think there are probably a lot more people waiting for reviews for this game than many others in the series. Or, to put it another way, I think reviews are likely to sway sales much more with this entry than with earlier ones.

People pre-ordered Ghosts out of habit and got burned, while players and critics alike bemoaned tired, stale, unimaginative gameplay with little to no real improvement. As such, a lot of those early adopters of Ghosts will be holding off, hoping the new game is good but not assuming it.

All this needs is a general consensus of "This is the best Call of Duty in years" or "Really brings back the thrill that Ghosts was missing - 9/10", and I think that sales decline will be significantly reduced.
 

tippy2k2

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Ghost has done a lot to absolutely cripple interest in Advanced Warfare.

I've purchased every CoD since Call of Duty 2 but if I couldn't get the game for about $30 (through Best Buy's various pre-order deals), I would likely hold off on this one until it dropped in price. Although I suppose Ghost has made progress in making me not like this series since I will not be getting the Map Packs until I know that AW isn't absolute garbage like Ghost was so....uh....progress?

If AW is good, I expect the numbers will jump right back up. Maybe not as high as they were in the series prime but I think a lot of CoD gamers are gun-shy after Ghost and are waiting for reassurance before putting their money down.
 

Evonisia

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I think it's a shame, but it was an inevitability. Ghosts was a really, really awful game that was so lackluster and soul less that even the CoD fans were put off it.

I hope Treyarch's next Call of Duty won't be the first financial failure for the series, though. Share holders will complain about any drop, but it's not like Ghosts didn't make a profit. As of now, it seems that Treyarch is the only one of the three who genuinely care for the franchise and want to improve it.
 

Worgen

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Whatever, just wash your hands.
tippy2k2 said:
Ghost has done a lot to absolutely cripple interest in Advanced Warfare.

I've purchased every CoD since Call of Duty 2 but if I couldn't get the game for about $30 (through Best Buy's various pre-order deals), I would likely hold off on this one until it dropped in price. Although I suppose Ghost has made progress in making me not like this series since I will not be getting the Map Packs until I know that AW isn't absolute garbage like Ghost was so....uh....progress?

If AW is good, I expect the numbers will jump right back up. Maybe not as high as they were in the series prime but I think a lot of CoD gamers are gun-shy after Ghost and are waiting for reassurance before putting their money down.
How did you get a full 30 off at best buy? I only heard about the $10 gift card thing.