Analyst: Activision Expects Black Ops to Sell 20% Less Than MW2

John Funk

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Dec 20, 2005
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Analyst: Activision Expects Black Ops to Sell 20% Less Than MW2



Though tomorrow's Call of Duty: Black Ops is poised to be one of the biggest games of the year, but an analyst believes Activision is undervaluing it compared to last year's Modern Warfare 2.

Let's face it: If you don't think Call of Duty: Black Ops is going to sell like proverbial hotcakes made out of crack cocaine, you've got another thing coming. In Activision's recent of Modern Warfare 2 [http://www.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/105028-Breaking-News-Activision-Makes-Money] to become the biggest entertainment launch of all time.

While it may have a larger launch, however, one analyst thinks that Activision is setting its Modern Warfare sights a bit low. According to Cowen & Company analyst Doug Creutz, Activision's Q3 results include an "assumption that the upcoming Call of Duty: Black Ops comps negatively against last year's Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2, despite the fact that on several pre-release metrics cited by management Black Ops is tracking ahead of MW2."

While Creutz thinks that Black Ops will ultimately fail to reach the high-water mark set by Cods Mew Too, he believes that Activision is low-balling Treyarch's entry into the series. "... We think management is taking a more conservative stance for guidance purposes," he said. "We think management's guidance implies Black Ops units down roughly 20% vs. MW2."

Creutz, meanwhile, estimates that CoD: BlOps will sell roughly 10% worse than Modern Warfare 2. In case you're keeping score, this is still more copies than 99% of games will ever sell in their lifetimes.

(Via CVG [http://www.computerandvideogames.com/article.php?id=274416])

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Timbydude

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Jul 15, 2009
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It's likely just because it won't have the Modern Warfare brand attached to it. The vast majority of people who played MW2 don't know the difference between Treyarch and the late Infinity Ward, so I actually highly doubt that the developer change will impact sales to any appreciable degree.

Of course, I think Treyarch does a decent job with the series, so I'll be picking it up as well.
 

skitskat

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Apr 14, 2009
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to be fair, modern warfares a call of duty spin off :p

i'm not buying COD, i've really started to hate it over the last couple years just due to the fact that my little brother has it and all he does is shout and scream while playing it.
 

Nopenahnuhuh

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skitskat said:
to be fair, modern warfares a call of duty spin off :p

i'm not buying COD, i've really started to hate it over the last couple years just due to the fact that my little brother has it and all he does is shout and scream while playing it.
Yeah! Screw the fact that the gameplay is actually pretty solid, the firefights are hectic and fun set pieces and the online is actually really fun! Hate the game because your little brother yells like a constipated parrot... Not trolling here or anything but that's a pretty lame excuse to outright denounce a game, just sayin'.
 

Macrobstar

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DJJ66 said:
skitskat said:
to be fair, modern warfares a call of duty spin off :p

i'm not buying COD, i've really started to hate it over the last couple years just due to the fact that my little brother has it and all he does is shout and scream while playing it.
Yeah! Screw the fact that the gameplay is actually pretty solid, the firefights are hectic and fun set pieces and the online is actually really fun! Hate the game because your little brother yells like a constipated parrot... Not trolling here or anything but that's a pretty lame excuse to outright denounce a game, just sayin'.
well i dont have a squawking brother but i hate it for its repetitive gameplay and there unwillingness to change anything
 

Jonny49

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I can see that. After MW2 I think some people have gotten sick of Call of Duty, not to mention people are picky when the Modern Warfare or IW logo isn't there.
 

Jkudo

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Robbie McLennan said:
DJJ66 said:
skitskat said:
to be fair, modern warfares a call of duty spin off :p

i'm not buying COD, i've really started to hate it over the last couple years just due to the fact that my little brother has it and all he does is shout and scream while playing it.
Yeah! Screw the fact that the gameplay is actually pretty solid, the firefights are hectic and fun set pieces and the online is actually really fun! Hate the game because your little brother yells like a constipated parrot... Not trolling here or anything but that's a pretty lame excuse to outright denounce a game, just sayin'.
well i dont have a squawking brother but i hate it for its repetitive gameplay and there unwillingness to change anything
I just hate it for its gameplay :D
 

skywalkerlion

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Jun 21, 2009
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Actually, everyone I know that liked MW2/the series is buying Black Ops. Also, when will Activision just stop saying..things. Like, Bobby, just stop talking :(.

Everything that comes out of Activision's mouth irritates the shit out of me.
 

Snotnarok

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Nov 17, 2008
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Sadly I'm sure this article is true, mostly because of the same idiots who said World at War is just a copy of CoD4 which never made sense to me since they're both under Activision. World at War was better than CoD4 and MW2 to me, it had a lot more substance and pacing.
 

Chaos Marine

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Feb 6, 2008
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Not buying it till it's on a massive sale from something like Steam's Christmas (Ha! Not this year, maybe the following Summer sale or Christmas sale) but Bobby Kotick and the bullshit of Modern Warfare 2, I won't be wasting money on them.
 

Armored Prayer

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Mar 10, 2009
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Considering this is not a sequel to the Modern Warfare, I can see it not being as successful. But I'm no expert so who really knows?

As for Black Ops I'm on the fence with this. I kind of had some bad experiences with MW2 and I'm not all that interested with the sigleplayer. On the other hand I love CoD and the multiplyer in Black Ops looks fun as hell. I'm probably going to get it when its on sale.
 

XT inc

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Jul 29, 2009
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I'm in the peer pressure boat for this game, everyone's doing it. Can't really ditch my friends for a year just to save 59.99. However as a small side note if treyarch "treyarch's"( the bad cod game between aaa cod games),it then I am done with them, cod 3, wow, where just terrible hopefully finishing up where mw2 left off and balancing and customizing things will save them.
 

Best of the 3

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Oct 9, 2010
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Well MW2 put me off of getting this CoD and this being the internet I know I am not the only one. SO yeah, that sounds about right.
 

Something Amyss

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Dec 3, 2008
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Good. I can't say my heart breaks when franchises like this don't continue to rack up escalating sales.

"This is why we can't have nice games, people."
 

DustyDrB

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Jan 19, 2010
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Well considering Halo:Reach and Medal of Honor basically just came out, it would be reasonable to expect fewer sales. Plus, didn't the last Call of Duty come out just a year ago? Brand fatigue is going to start factoring in at some point.
 

Rednog

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Nov 3, 2008
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I honestly was on the fence to buy this just because I hated Treyarch's work on World At War (seriously it is my most hated in the CoD franchise). But after I got it an amazon for $30 ($10 off code and $20 credit to another purchase) and realizing that everyone I know is going to abandon whatever other games they have been playing to play Black OPS I said why not.
 

crimsonshrouds

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Zachary Amaranth said:
Good. I can't say my heart breaks when franchises like this don't continue to rack up escalating sales.

"This is why we can't have nice games, people."
I have to agree with you on the not having nice games. GOW, Halo, and COD, are the reason we have seen no evolution in fps's and why there are so many bad knockoffs.

Im sick of playing some military type following orders whether im on other planets or on earth sheesh.

I think im really looking forward to the duke even if i havent played previous ones

Right now i get my fps fix in bioshock 2s multiplayer.
 

thethingthatlurks

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Feb 16, 2010
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righthanded said:
People are 20% smarter than they were last year? Doubt it.
If sales would be down 20%, 20% of the people would need to be smarter compared to last year. A 20% increase in overall IQ would be pretty damn cool though.