Analyst: Xbox One Could Outship PS4 3-to-1

[Sonic Doctor]

Aaahh, but you are forgetting that a ton of families have a Wii, and many of those parents are too stupid to see that the Wii U is a new console and not just some kind of similar side version of the Wii. The kid will settle for the Wii U, but then the parent will get the Xbox One instead because they will say, "But Timmy, we already have a Wii at home, so the Xbox One is the only choice." Then said parents will not hear another word out of their kid's mouth because they don't want too seem like they don't know what they are talking about.

Ah but with the bad Economy the substualy cheeper WiiU will apeel to those brain dead morons because it's $200+ less than the Xbone which they can watch a few pay per view wrestling matches with.

Okay, your logic fell off the cliff there because you didn't read what I said. My point was that stupid parents won't get the Wii U because they don't think it is a totally new system, just a Wii with a few new but unimportant peripheral things added and re-branded with a U at the end.

It won't matter if it costs less than the Xbox One, they aren't going to get the Wii U because they would look at it as buying something twice, since they already have a Wii.

 

[Denamic]

How does a logistics advantage carry anything past the first few weeks? Both Sony and Microsoft will have a metric fuckton of preorders to fill, and it's obvious that the one with better supply lines will ship more units in a given period of time. Once the launch weeks are over, none of that matters any more.

That's the important thing. I mean the 360 started out with a 5 million sales lead over the PS3 due to launch timings and the PS3 still eventually caught up and overtook it.

If both consoles are popular enough to have supply problems for a couple of months after launch though, it will give the One some of the momentum back that it had lost in the pre-release PR. This probably puts them on a more level footing than anything else

This isn't really about sales. It's logistics. It's about shipping out the consoles that are essentially already sold. After that first couple of weeks, this advantage is nullified, because the initial spike will have died out and people who couldn't get their hands on a console before can now.

The 360 had a 1 year head start over the PS3. The situations then and now aren't even in the same category.

 

[Slash2x]

So I will be able to see them collect dust at my local Gamestop AND Walmart. AWESOME! Yeah even the Micro$oft fans I know have ZERO intention of buying a first gen X(anything). Something about a 50%+ failure rate seems to make people not want to get your "but we made more of them" products.

Congratulations you made more of your console. And will probably have to remake many of them later.

I already bought my next game system..... 6 months ago.... And it still has specs that CRUSH the Xbone.

I may get a PS4 for my family room at some point though....

 

[jericu]

Doesn't really matter if it can outship the PS4 if no one wants to buy one...

 

[mattttherman3]

I of course have a plan. Ask for the Xbone for Xmas (whilst using my birthday gift as well) and buy the PS4 right after. Its foolproof

 

[Sonic Doctor]

Did you bother to ask how many preorders they were allowed to take for each system? Because I did.

Last time I checked Gamestop had over five times more preorders available for the PS4 than they did for the Xbone. So even though they're both sold out of preorders, there are still way more PS4s being sold. This may have changed, but I doubt by much.

I did actually. The one near me had an equal amount of each console that they were getting in. They said they did that because they didn't know exactly how many they would need of each in the beginning, so they decided to get same amount of both....and now both are pre-ordered out.

 

[Lightknight]

2) Units shipped means diddly squat, it's the units sold that matter, they could ship heaps of units to somewhere, but if they don't sell, then what's the point?

That's not true, units shipped from Microsoft's perspective IS units sold. That's retailers purchasing them. It just doesn't mean games sold unless the systems are purchased. When you hear X-number of units sold for most products, that's usually talking about how many copies were purchased directly AND by retailers. The original company doesn't care where they get the money unless the console is being sold at a loss. Then they'd want it to be going into the hands of gamers.

But yes, the is currently REALLY against them by comparison. Microsoft could ship 3 times their number right now and still not touch the ps4's numbers as I pointed out and cited above. With a likely 6:1 or higher ratio of ps4:XBO sales they've got a lot of ground to cover. Especially with Sony adding new bundle copies that are all mostly selling more than even the standard XBO version by themselves.

The good news for the XBO, this is really early on and they can gain ground in the coming years. Since the ps3 and 360 launched in different years, we don't actually know how much preorder sales impact final numbers. I mean, the ps3 sold much worse in the beginning and yet is fairly close to 360 units sold now. We know the 360 has sold 78.2 million units as of July 22nd and that the ps3 sold 75 million units as of February and is estimated to be 78 million right now. So they're surprisingly neck and neck despite Sony's bad start.

Their relative performance over the next 5 years will be one for the record books, that's for sure. A great business study if I've ever heard one.

 

[BrotherRool]

How does a logistics advantage carry anything past the first few weeks? Both Sony and Microsoft will have a metric fuckton of preorders to fill, and it's obvious that the one with better supply lines will ship more units in a given period of time. Once the launch weeks are over, none of that matters any more.

That's the important thing. I mean the 360 started out with a 5 million sales lead over the PS3 due to launch timings and the PS3 still eventually caught up and overtook it.

If both consoles are popular enough to have supply problems for a couple of months after launch though, it will give the One some of the momentum back that it had lost in the pre-release PR. This probably puts them on a more level footing than anything else

This isn't really about sales. It's logistics. It's about shipping out the consoles that are essentially already sold. After that first couple of weeks, this advantage is nullified, because the initial spike will have died out and people who couldn't get their hands on a console before can now.

The 360 had a 1 year head start over the PS3. The situations then and now aren't even in the same category.

What I meant was that we had an example that a 1 year, 5 million unit headstart in sales didn't ultimately stop Sony, so a 3 month 1 million headstart in sales isn't going to slow them down much. I wasn't disagreeing with you (it probably will be a few months instead of a few weeks if the 3:1 number is right though)

 

[GAunderrated]

How can this guy call himself an analyst?

Bad press, more expensive, less powerful, potential overheating issues, mandatory Big Brother, available in less than half the countries that the PS4 is available in at launch. And more people are ordering the PS4 than they're ordering the Xbone. Jesus fuckin' Christ the math is so obvious.

Mostly likely he is an analyst doing some "observations" or "promotions" as a favor to a friend which may or may no include $$$$. Or he could just be straight up delusional. More likely than not though it is the former.

 

[mitchell271]

-snip-

Is... is that a Misfile avatar? I've never met anyone else that reads it!

OT: So the Xbone, a US-centred product, will sell better than the PS4, an internationally minded product, based on US preorders. Yeah, and I've suddenly become a unicorn that farts meringue droplets.

 

[Lightknight]

So I will be able to see them collect dust at my local Gamestop AND Walmart. AWESOME! Yeah even the Micro$oft fans I know have ZERO intention of buying a first gen X(anything). Something about a 50%+ failure rate seems to make people not want to get your "but we made more of them" products.

Congratulations you made more of your console. And will probably have to remake many of them later.

That's my line of thinking. Sony may have had a great 10% failure rate (hardware/software failure within two years of purchase) this past generation but 360's 24% failure rate (your 50% numbers were over double actuality, but the point remains valid) has made me wary of any first gen purchase. I will be getting a ps4 within the first six months and will likely be getting an XBO towards the end of the generation to play exclusives if the price is low enough and nothing significant has changed my mind.

I'll also point out that greater supply chain efficiencies does not necessarily mean that they've produced that many more units. As the original article stated (and as I stated before), both launch day versions have sold out and the ps4 actually had more launch day versions.

I already bought my next game system..... 6 months ago.... And it still has specs that CRUSH the Xbone.

A computer I assume? It may not be true if you're comparing specs directly due to effeciencies that standard hardware provides, seeing as the past five/six years saw both consoles being able to play games that pcs four times as powerful have to play on minimum specs (because the software was customized for the console). But if you got a monster pc like I did then it may not matter. I doubt you paid $500 for it, but I'm sure it's what you want.

 

[rasputin0009]

Sounds rushed. The Xbone is probably going to RROD like the 360 did. That mounted eSRAM is going to cause overheating issues for sure if they're gonna be shipping that many consoles that quickly.

"Certification testing? What certification testing?"

 

[Mister Chippy]

Did you bother to ask how many preorders they were allowed to take for each system? Because I did.

Last time I checked Gamestop had over five times more preorders available for the PS4 than they did for the Xbone. So even though they're both sold out of preorders, there are still way more PS4s being sold. This may have changed, but I doubt by much.

I did actually. The one near me had an equal amount of each console that they were getting in. They said they did that because they didn't know exactly how many they would need of each in the beginning, so they decided to get same amount of both....and now both are pre-ordered out.

I mean in total. Last time I checked, gamestops were allowed to order more ps4s than xbones, whether or not they choose to is their decision (I think). However I will freely admit that within the past two weeks I haven't been able to find any numbers that would show if the situation has changed.

I'm a PC gamer so honestly I don't care who wins, I just wanted to offer up the information at my disposal.

 

[Lightknight]

> both budget tablet technology from AMD.
>> well engineered.


The hardware is a joke. There is no two ways around around it. The only reason its considered "better" now is because the current gen hardware is 7 years old.

There is no difference in engineering, both went in with the bare minimum of what they could get otherwise they might lose money because of the shaky industry.

I'm not saying that these are top of the line machines but only the cpu would be called "tablet" tech. What you've got to understand is that today's cpu's generally offload the brunt of the work to the GPU/RAM nowadays so the CPU isn't nearly as meaningful as it once was. Those APUs are particularly good at scaling and offloading, so it's a perfect option for the PS4 that went with a powerful GPU/RAM combo and merely ok for the XBO that didn't appear to go that route for some unknown reason. This is why the "tablet" tech as you call it will also be found in microservers. This is why right now the biggest server I manage is using around 42 GB of memory with less than 7% of a 3.16Ghz 8 core xeon processor being utilized for the whole thing. CPU only spikes nowadays if a process was designed poorly or if the RAM starts to get thin (there are a few other scenarios as well that wouldn't impact the consoles).

They certainly aren't top tier, but they're also meant to be affordable. You've got to see them for what they are, $400-$500 pcs. For that price range they are incredible (perhaps except the XBO, that may be close to being right on the money with the Kinect 2 costing almost as much to make as the console), especially if you take into account efficiencies from standardized hardware that allows devs to push the limits a lot more than non-standard equipment. This is why a budget $1,500 powerhouse machine in 2005 can only play normal games on minimum settings nowadays and the $500 pcs of that era are comparable to the ps3/360 on paper but completely unable to play the kind of games that are coming out this year.

 

[Genocidicles]

then at that point about a third of those parents are probably going to tell their kid to just get an Xbox One, because a game console is a game console.

It is sad, but true.

Well if that's the logic they use, why wouldn't they get a Wii U? It's cheaper than the xbone, and more child friendly.

 

[ckam]

Just because something an item is sold out doesn't mean that people can't wait for stores to restock. I seriously doubt that people would spend more money for an inferior item.

 

[Slash2x]

*Snip Myself

That's my line of thinking. Sony may have had a great 10% failure rate (hardware/software failure within two years of purchase) this past generation but 360's 24% failure rate (your 50% numbers were over double actuality

Huh.... I was [http://www.ign.com/articles/2009/08/17/report-xbox-360-failure-rate-reaches-54] reading....

I already bought my next game system..... 6 months ago.... And it still has specs that CRUSH the Xbone.

A computer I assume? I doubt you paid $500 for it, but I'm sure it's what you want.

Yeah that is off by a factor of about 6.... I program so it is also a work expense, mostly so I do not have to wait a week for the compiler..... Really ..... OK also so I can play everything on Steam at max settings playtest my work.......

I COULD have built one for $500 that would smoke the Xbone but I do not need one.

I also run Ubuntu so I have SIGNIFICANTLY less over head pull from the OS on the system specs. It also allows for true multi-thread processing getting me all that I can out of every core specifically for the program in the foreground.

 

[freedash22]

Without demand it doesnt matter if your supply is better.

IF no one wants to buy your product it doesnt matter if you have the best supply network in the world

This are Microsoft execs and PR talking so they'll probably say it this way:

"We have lots of unsold XBOX One units on stores across the face of the Earth because our supply chain is three times better than Sony's! The PS4 is sold out because their supply chain is inferior as a result, stores were not adequately supplied thus stocks ran out. Therefore, this is a big accomplishment because we outsold them and at the same time, stores have enough stocks for the next XBOX One frenzy!"

The ONLY WAY that XBOX One stocks will run out on store shelves is because too many consoles went RROD (or equivalent) during release week thus prompting stores to use their remaining stocks to immediately replace the ones that broke down to prevent customer riots!

In this case, this is what Microsoft will say:

"All XBOX One units have run out on stores across the face of the Earth despite our superior supply chain! This is because our console technology, game exclusives, marketing and PR campaigns are superior to that of the competition and have COMPLETELY reversed all previous negativity restoring consumer good will and then some! We are triumphant! Bonuses up the ass! We want it now!"

 

[wrightguy0]

you can ship all the units you want until gamestops everywhere have tidal waves of X-Bones crashing out into the streets, it still won't matter if the thing doesn't sell.

 

[Lightknight]

...360's 24% failure rate (your 50% numbers were over double actuality

Huh.... I was [http://www.ign.com/articles/2009/08/17/report-xbox-360-failure-rate-reaches-54] reading....

We appear to have conflicting sources:

http://kotaku.com/5448703/video-game-statistics-at-a-glance?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+kotaku%2Ffull+%28Kotaku%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

http://www.informationweek.com/personal-tech/home-entertainment/xbox-360-most-unreliable-gaming-console/219501312

The difference is our study source. All the links we're providing are rooted in one study each. Your sources are all from a Game Informer survey, my sources are all from a Square Trade (An extended warranty service provider that actually knows the numbers because they process faulty consoles) study that is the most up to date. This study from Square Trade in particular examined 16,000 game consoles it serviced from the second quarter of 2007 to the first quarter of 2009. It analyzed 2,5000 ps3's, 2,500 Xbox 360's, and 11,000 Wiis all selected at random. The game informer just had its readers respond to a poll without any attempt at randomization of sample size. There are all kinds of ways that the game informer study could be skewed because of that. Not the least of which being internet shenanigans that inflate responses.

Whenever you read an article on the web, you've got to follow the cited sources back to the original. I can't tell you how many times I've found completely unreliable sources that got picked up by a semi-legitimate news source that in turn got picked up by the big boys before anyone figured it out.

So, I doubt the reliability of your source's methodology. Around 2009 and later, Microsoft had gotten the problem resolved (finally) and got a lot closer to the 10% rate that the ps3 was at to begin with.

Regardless of it being 1/4 or 1/2, it's still too high for me to be an early adopter. Which is a shame, because Sony didn't do a bad job and Microsoft's failure makes me suspicious even of them.

Yeah that is off by a factor of about 6.... I program so it is also a work expense, mostly so I do not have to wait a week for the compiler..... Really ..... OK also so I can play everything on Steam at max settings playtest my work.......

Hehe, I didn't think to expense mine. But I don't think I work from home enough to have legitimately written it off.

I COULD have built one for $500 that would smoke the Xbone but I do not need one.

This is a mistake that even the most savy techs among us make. For $500 you could make a machine that appears to match or mildly exceed an Xbone on paper. Keep in mind that 6 years ago you could have done the same (or more expensive, actually) for a 360. But note that today's games like Skyrim don't have minimum specs at 512MBs like the 360/ps3 are. The min processor specs also don't fall in line. This is because developers can push the hardware in standard configurations a LOT further than they can when they can't be sure of the hardware. So while you'll be playing games on the ps4/XBO for the next 5-6 years, you won't be doing so on a $500 computer. Your multiple thousand dollar machine? Yeah, you'll be playing games. I saw a $1,500 budget power machine from 2006 that almost exactly matches Skyrim's minimum settings on pc. It really was quite powerful in its day. Right now, a 2GB RAM machine, 2.0GHz dual processor, and a 512MB RAM Video Card is roughly equivalent to the 360/ps3. Roughly. Back in 2005/2006? $1,500 would get you something like that.

I see no particular reason why this generation would prove any differently yet thanks to Youtube being around for so long we can actually see people making the same argument you're making here and compare their claims to reality thanks to the test that is time. It drastically fails to account for advances in technology over the next couple of years as well as developers placing special efforts into making sure games fit on the two main consoles. Do you have a gaurantee that AAA will make sure their games work on a $500 machine you made 5 years ago?

For $500 you can build a machine that can play almost any current gen game on ultra settings. You have to do a bit of twisting but it can be done. But that's also in a market that has been held back by weak consoles for the past two or three years. The next two years should be very interesting in pc tech like they were four years ago.

I also run Ubuntu so I have SIGNIFICANTLY less over head pull from the OS on the system specs. It also allows for true multi-thread processing getting me all that I can out of every core specifically for the program in the foreground.

Yeah, geeze, Microsoft's three OS's are real grabby when it comes to RAM on the XBO. I mean, it isn't as bad at resource allocation as Vista was but you're talking about nearly 40% of the processing getting gobbled up by processors.

But modern hardware allows for multi-threading. It just isn't commonly developed for due to significant developing costs involved to optimize via multi-threading that I'm sure you're aware of.