Anaysis of Nagorno-Karabakh( Armenia vs Azerbaijani War )

[Gergar12]

Brief Analysis of The Armenia-Azerbaijan War in Nagorno-Karabakh

Overview​

The war in the former Soviet countries of Armenia and Azerbaijan are occurring over the disputed territories of Nagorno-Karabakh on each other’s borders. They shared decades-long hatred over this disputed territory. It’s likely that Azerbaijan attacked first due to being pushed out of the entire disputed territory in the last war. Turkey is backing Azerbaijan, and Russia a traditional ally of Armenia is supplying arms to both sides due to the recent democratic revolution (Velvet Revolution) in 2018, and Russia disliking this.

Balance of Power​

While both countries use tanks, aircraft, APCs, and mostly Russian arms exporters to get those vehicles. Azerbaijan seems to posse superior military, and critical mass due to having better tanks, Turkish supplied drones with missiles, and a high population, and GDP, respectively. Both sides have good air defenses.

Who is Winning?​

It’s uncertain if we can with a high degree of accuracy, and precision ascertain who is winning as both sides use propaganda to inflate the other side’s losses and deflate their own losses. It is likely that Armenia is losing due to high Azerbaijan quality, and quantity edge in equips, and better tactics due to higher drone usage by Azerbaijan. It is also likely that Azerbaijan is losing more soldiers due to the hilly terrain and having to go on the offensive vs a defensive Armenia.

Policy Options for the United States​

The most direct approach the US can undertake is to send military support, supplies, vehicles, and training to Armenia due to this country a more democratic country than Azerbaijan due to said recent democratic revolution in Armenia if we want a neoliberal institutionalist approach.

A progressive approach is to sanction Turkey, Russia, and Azerbaijan until the war stops, and the two former countries stop sending arms to one or both sides.

A realist approach is to ignore this war. And let people die, and give Ankara (Turkey), and Moscow a bad reputation in helping a bigger country bully a smaller democratic country.

A pure constructivist approach is to force Russia hand in the UN, and hold a UN Security Council meeting, and condemn the aggression of likely Azerbaijan.

My Opinion​

If Armenia proper gets invaded, or Azerbaijan wants to ethnically cleanse the majority Armenian population in Nagorno-Karabakh, a democratic country risk falling into the heads of an autocratic country, and or a large war crime would be occurring. We should send military support in the form of airpower over our bases in Eastern Europe(specifically Romania, and Bulgaria), and send supplies to the Armenian Armed Forces over Georgia a US ally in form of the latest Stinger anti-air missiles, and Javelin anti-tank missile, and take out Azerbaijan drones, tanks, aircraft, and air defenses as well as artillery. We should do so while communicating with Tehran, Moscow, Tbilisi, and Ankara that we don't want to escalate this war.

Nagorno-Karabakh - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Armed Forces of Armenia - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Azerbaijani Armed Forces - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Hawki]

Like the world from which your avatar hails, there's always some war breaking out somewhere these days. Only unlike Strangereal, we get to enjoy climate breakdown and nuclear weapons (the latter might technically be a good thing though).

Apart from that, yeah. War. Or as we call it on Sol III, a Tuesday.

 

[Agema]

I say, broadly, we state our opposition to armed conflict and pretty much stay the hell out of it beyond encouraging a ceasefire.

Ultimately, this is outside the West's ability to usefully intervene. We can try leaning on Turkey to reduce their involvement, but I doubt that's going to happen as Turkey looks like it's more interested in pursuing a regional power base around the Middle East than caring what the EU and US thinks. The EU could comprehensively wreck Turkey economically if it wanted, but I seriously doubt it would be deemed worth that. I think Armenia poses no threat to Azerbaijan in the sense it has all the territory it wants and will be purely defensive. If Azerbaijan threatens to win big and endanger Armenia, I think the Russians will step in and stop the conflict. Not least because there is the subplot of competing Turkish and Russian influence over the Caucasus, and a big Azeri win would probably equate to a big win for Turkey.

Who is Winning?​

It’s uncertain if we can with a high degree of accuracy, and precision ascertain who is winning as both sides use propaganda to inflate the other side’s losses and deflate their own losses. It is likely that Armenia is losing due to high Azerbaijan quality, and quantity edge in equips, and better tactics due to higher drone usage by Azerbaijan. It is also likely that Azerbaijan is losing more soldiers due to the hilly terrain and having to go on the offensive vs a defensive Armenia.

Yes, but it's worth bearing in mind that for all their relatively expensive technology, the Azeri military is reputed to be very low quality: badly trained, poor morale, etc. They might be able to grab some low-hanging fruit from the less defensible areas easily enough, but when they hit the mountains, maybe not.

 

[Gergar12]

They are currently under a ceasefire.

Armenia Azerbaijan: Reports of fresh shelling dent ceasefire hopes

Fresh bombardments were reported within hours of Azerbaijan and Armenia declaring a ceasefire.

www.bbc.com

 

[Gergar12]

I say, broadly, we state our opposition to armed conflict and pretty much stay the hell out of it beyond encouraging a ceasefire.

Ultimately, this is outside the West's ability to usefully intervene. We can try leaning on Turkey to reduce their involvement, but I doubt that's going to happen as Turkey looks like it's more interested in pursuing a regional power base around the Middle East than caring what the EU and US thinks. The EU could comprehensively wreck Turkey economically if it wanted, but I seriously doubt it would be deemed worth that. I think Armenia poses no threat to Azerbaijan in the sense it has all the territory it wants and will be purely defensive. If Azerbaijan threatens to win big and endanger Armenia, I think the Russians will step in and stop the conflict. Not least because there is the subplot of competing Turkish and Russian influence over the Caucasus, and a big Azeri win would probably equate to a big win for Turkey.



Yes, but it's worth bearing in mind that for all their relatively expensive technology, the Azeri military is reputed to be very low quality: badly trained, poor morale, etc. They might be able to grab some low-hanging fruit from the less defensible areas easily enough, but when they hit the mountains, maybe not.

Funny enough when I first saw this I was like we don't need to get involved. The problem is that this is different from Syria. We are talking about a democratic country. It's like Kuwait 2.0. I get the Armenians did ethnically cleansed the disputed region of Azeris, but they did so under a dictatorship. And this is also an act of aggression.

 

[Agema]

Funny enough when I first saw this I was like we don't need to get involved. The problem is that this is different from Syria. We are talking about a democratic country. It's like Kuwait 2.0. I get the Armenians did ethnically cleansed the disputed region of Azeris, but they did so under a dictatorship. And this is also an act of aggression.

I would argue Armenia is squatting on a load of land it has no right to under normal conventions, and whilst it does it's an open sore likely to cause war.

Apparently a ceasefire is arranged - whether it holds is another matter.

I suspect a useful resolution would be for Azerbaijan to concede Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia plus a strip of land between it and Armenia so it is contiguous. In return, Armenia returns the majority of Azerbaijan's territory that it currently occupies. Officially agree by treaty, both can move on. It's a possible sell: Azerbaijan gets a de facto recovery of much territory to claim as a win, and Armenia gets to keep the territory it really wants. The biggest issue is that Armenia might be getting the better deal in a sense, as it's undoubtedly an increase on its old Soviet territory at Azerbaijan's expense, and national pride often does not accept any loss of territory, even if it's full of a hostile population.

 

[Hawki]

Ultimately, this is outside the West's ability to usefully intervene.

Has the West "usefully" intervened at any point in living memory? Key word on "usefully."

If we're talking about diplomacy though, that's another matter

 

[Thaluikhain]

Has the West "usefully" intervened at any point in living memory? Key word on "usefully."

East Timor or the Solomons, perhaps? Though unsure about the latter, and definitely other motives in play in the former. Not big disasters, at the very least, so there's that.

 

[Trunkage]

East Timor or the Solomons, perhaps? Though unsure about the latter, and definitely other motives in play in the former. Not big disasters, at the very least, so there's that.

Did 'useful' gain a new definition of stealing oil? Like half of Trump's good ideas, he stole it from Australian politicians

 

[Specter Von Baren]

Has the West "usefully" intervened at any point in living memory? Key word on "usefully."

If we're talking about diplomacy though, that's another matter

Berlin Airlift?

 

[Hawki]

Berlin Airlift?

"Living memory."

I mean, that would be living memory for some people, but I doubt any on this forum.

 

[Thaluikhain]

Berlin Airlift?

I'd discount that, as it was done by the people who basically owned that part of Berlin anyway.

 

[Agema]

Has the West "usefully" intervened at any point in living memory? Key word on "usefully."

Well, I'm sure every last one was useful for someone. The issue is who.

I'd argue the Bosnian intervention was probably a positive, all in all.

 

[stroopwafel]

Azerbaijan probably tries to capitalize on Turkey's assertiveness in it's conflict with Greece over the exact shoreline with it's huge gas reservoirs and the bargaining power the country has with the E.U. in managing the refugee crisis. Russia's relation with Turkey is also a peculiar one. Turkey shot down a Russian jet in Syria that nearly boiled into military escalation but Turkey then later favors Russia over the U.S. in anti-air defense system. So the country now has Russian missiles in Nato territory. Russia meanwhile has maneuvered themselves in an impossible position by having burned almost it's entire credit with Germany because of Ukraine, Crimea and now Navalny and sees the Nord Stream 2 project threatened. Any fierce action in Nagorno Karabach and that project is terminated with relations with Turkey also detoriorated. It would be a severe strategic loss for Putin.

Recep Erdogan and by extension Azerbaijan is a shrewd one. It knows Russia has little room to maneuver despite Armenia having the upper hand militarily. Erdogan knows how to incite old sentiments and wrongdoings kinda similar as what Putin did in east Ukraine in 2014. There is a momentum now for Azerbaijan over this regional dispute that won't likely return.