ZephrC said:
OANST said:
Delusibeta said:
It's true that not every download is a lost sale. While it's a safe bet that some of the pirates would have bought the game were there no other choice, there's no way of knowing how low (or high) that percentage would be.
I would approximate 0.2%.
Ah. So you're a pirate.
Actually, Shamus had an article here once that talked about an indie developer that had messed around with a bunch of different kinds of DRM, and they had estimated that they gained one sale for every thousand pirates they prevented.
So that number was probably too high.
Problem: Indie games, especially the sort the have little "experiments" with DRM, aren't drawing the same attention as mega-release games. As such, there simply aren't as many people willing to buy it in the first place. An experiment like this is simply there to prove a point, but that point has to include the fact that the numbers are not to scale.
Look at Black Ops. This isn't some "indie developer" making a "niche game." This isn't an experiment to see what DRM does, where people participating in the experiment are likely aware that something like that is going on. This is a game that the market shows
people effin' want. And, as such, it didn't come with an indie price tag.
This all-or-nothing crap is what has to stop. Someone may not be willing to pay $60 on launch day, but they may be willing to pay $45 a few months later. Now, since there's a free version that's easy to get, they pay $0. That is lost revenue. Not a lost "full price" sale, no, but a lost sale.
There is a period between Launch Day and the sale of the first batch of used copies. Publishers can still make reduced-price sales during that period. Piracy largely eliminates that period. So, you can add
those losses to the 1:1,000 launch-price losses. Now you're getting a more realistic picture.
The problem? It's impossible to prove any non-sale was a lost sale. So what's to be done? We rely on common sense. Which of the following is more plausible?:
1. That someone with absolutely no interest in ever paying any amount of money for a product is suddenly going to want it simply because it's free? (Unlikely. If they're interested in having it, they're indicating they'd spend at least
a little to get it. If they have absolutely no interest, they wouldn't even think to download it.)
2. That someone with
some interest in the product, but perhaps not full-price interest, was instead sidetracked by the presence of an illegal, but
free version, resulting in at least the lost of a reduced-price sale. (Far more likely, given what we know about people and their buying habits.)