Autistic Kid Picks Perfect NCAA Bracket

Greg Tito

PR for Dungeons & Dragons
Sep 29, 2005
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Autistic Kid Picks Perfect NCAA Bracket



In an NCAA basketball tournament filled with upsets, only one person is known to have picked the first two rounds perfectly, an autistic 17-year-old from Chicago.

My bracket is busted. I picked Kansas, the overall favorite, to go deep, and Villanova to reach the Final Four. Sure, I picked a few sleepers to win and tried to guess a few upsets but nothing prepared me for Cornell. Seriously? An Ivy League team in the Sweet Sixteen? Who could have predicted that?

One person could. Alex Hermann has correctly picked the winners of the first 48 games of the NCAA tournament through its first two rounds. The odds of accomplishing that feat is 1 in 13,460,000. There's more of a chance that you'll be struck by lightning, win the lottery or be killed by a dog. So how did Hermann, who happens to be autistic, do it?

"I'm good at math," he said. "I'm kind of good at math and at stats I see on TV during the game."

His brother, Andrew Hermann, is amazed. "I checked his bracket and it was off the chart," he said. "I thought it was a big deal."

Stats and basketball analysis only goes so far. The on-air experts at ESPN and CBS couldn't have guessed the outcome of all those games correctly. Even crowdsourcing isn't perfect, as the leader of ESPN's Tournament Challenge game, of which 4.78 million have participated, has incorrectly predicted four games [http://games.espn.go.com/tcmen/en/entry?entryID=2201927].

Perhaps a little bit of an emotional connection helped Hermann. He picked Purdue to win its first two games, which isn't unheard of for a #4 seed, but he also picked them to win the whole tournament, which is less likely.

Incidentally, Purdue is where Andrew Hermann went to college. "They're [Alex's] favorite for that reason," the boys' mother said.

You can check out Hermann's bracket here [http://media.nbcchicago.com/images/WinningBracket.jpg].

One wonders what would have happened if Hermann tried his hand at picking which game developer would win March Mayhem [http://www.escapistmagazine.com/global/tournaments/standings/2-2010-March-Mayhem-Developers-Showdown]. So Alex, if you're reading, who do you think is going to win?

Let's play some cards!

Source: NBC [http://www.nbcchicago.com/news/sports/Autistic-Teen-Picks-First-Two-NCAA-Rounds-Perfectly-88916437.html#ixzz0j6jaS8YO]

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Moriarty

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Apr 29, 2009
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well yeah, the odds mitght be 1 to 13,460,000 but if you have three million people guessing around, you shouldn't be surprised if someone got it right
 

LTK_70

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Aug 28, 2009
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The odds of accomplishing that feat is 1 in 13,460,000.
It should be noted that these odds of succeeding only applies if you let your cat do te predicting. That is, completely random. But getting them all right is still impressive.
 

Steampunk Viking

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Jan 15, 2010
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Moriarty said:
well yeah, the odds mitght be 1 to 13,460,000 but if you have three million people guessing around, you shouldn't be surprised if someone got it right
To be fair if there's only 3 million people and over 13 million choices, there's still a chance that there's a few thousand people guessing the same results still. This is pretty damn impressive, you have more people that do the lottery and sometimes you don't get a winner for weeks and weeks.
 

Jared

The British Paladin
Jul 14, 2009
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Dosnt surprise me actually. Its been proven autistics, well at least some can have grat abilities to hold large amounts of information. This is just the ultimate proof of it in public...

Now if only he had put money on it imagine how much he would have right now!
 

VaNilla

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Sep 25, 2008
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Who gives a shit that he's autistic? Why do writers feel the need to point these things out, they don't change anything :/
 

jpakaferrari

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Nov 9, 2009
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He took K-State all the way to the championship game? If this kid is right I will send him a present.
 

Baby Tea

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Sep 18, 2008
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Transitionist said:
Who gives a shit that he's autistic? Why do writers feel the need to point these things out, they don't change anything :/
Yeah, you're right.
Who cares that a kid with a serious mental illness correctly picked the winning teams in March Madness with perfect accuracy over all the 'experts' and people who do this stuff for a living, and who do not have that mental handicap. That shouldn't make a difference, right?

Except that it makes it all the more incredible.
A person without that problem doing this would be pretty awesome.
But a kid with autism? How is that not extra awesome?

On topic: Good on him! The bracket he entered doesn't allow for him to win anything, which is a shame (He earned it), but it's incredibly awesome nonetheless. Maybe a sports company will cut him some slack and get him some type of prize anyways. That would be class act.
 

messy

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Dec 3, 2008
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Moriarty said:
well yeah, the odds mitght be 1 to 13,460,000 but if you have three million people guessing around, you shouldn't be surprised if someone got it right
Your maths is a little off

3,000,000/13,460,000 means that if they all pick a unique one there's 22% of all options covered. So pretty much just a 1/5 chance that this would happen (assuming once again a completely unique list). And odds (irony of using odds to discuss chance...) are some were replicated, due to the nature of some teams universally thought to be better then others.

So yeah pretty impressive all the same.
 

Zac_Dai

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Oct 21, 2008
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I dunno, I just don't find it that impressive, he just got lucky.

Chance of winning the lottery in Britain is higher at 1 in 13,983,816. Yet people still pick the right numbers and win.

If he managed to predict the results perfectly year after year then I'd be impressed.
 

Twilight_guy

Sight, Sound, and Mind
Nov 24, 2008
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Well that pretty cool but luck still probably has a lot to do with it. You crunch the numbers for probability and then you go with your gut and hope for the best. Somebody is bound to get it right. Also, why did you point out he's autistic? That doesn't really have anything to do with the story and i can't help but feel is a "look he's disabled" plee for people to read the story. Maybe not. Maybe it makes him better with numbers... whatever.
 

Shjade

Chaos in Jeans
Feb 2, 2010
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Twilight_guy said:
Well that pretty cool but luck still probably has a lot to do with it. You crunch the numbers for probability and then you go with your gut and hope for the best.
Indeed, no matter how good you are with the numbers it's irrelevant if one of your choice teams just has a bad day and flubs a game. The math only gets you so far; people are still people and people are nothing if not inconsistent.
 

Xanthious

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Dec 25, 2008
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Saw this on Mike and Mike this morning and the sad part is his brackets are in a CBS.com contest with no prizes. Doh!