Belarus asks for Russian intervention

[stroopwafel]

I think the key problem Belarus has with EU trade is that it has been under some form of sanctions (albeit mostly quite light ones) for a long time due to Lukashenko's suppression of political opposition.

My impression, I think like yours, is that Lukashenko has been trying to play off the EU and Russia. He's been trying to keep Russia at arm's length whilst trying to get cheap gas out of it. Russia of course wants Belarus as a buffer state (and didn't it propose a merger at some point?), but is annoyed that it is effectively subsidising it in a costly way. Meanwhile he's clearly wanted to piggyback off the EU's wealth, whilst simultaneously not having to live up to EU expectations on political, economic and social freedom.

I'd also agree that in the 1990s, having staggered out of decades of Communist political stupefaction, the Belarusians were probably mostly clueless about democracy and had no real attachment to it, which Lukashenko readily exploited to install himself. As you say, I'm not sure he has an agenda, except that he clearly likes running the country and wants to carry on doing so.



I'm pretty sure Trump has de facto resigned his office's role as "leader of the free word". He seems more keen on being top dog amongst the world's authoritarians, buddying around with his pals Putin, Kim, Erdogan and bin Salman.

Yeah, I believe that was one of the main reasons why relations between Putin and Lukashenko soured; issues over further integration. Putin only seems to intervene when there are overtures by the E.U. or Nato which was the case with Ukraine and Georgia and explains the annexation of Crimea and the small separatist republics around it's border. My guess is the Kremlin will first try to strengthen the ties with the opposition because for Putin it really doesn't matter if it's Lukashenko or Thikanovskaya the now de facto elected leader. As long as they just stay away from the E.U. The protestors aren't waving E.U. flags but neither are they waving the flags Russia introduced but rather they are only waving their own national flags. Which kind of makes the countries alignment difficult to gauge.

Lukashenko's time has come and gone. It's not in Putin's interest to intervene and keep him in power when he lost all the support of his population. But neither is he probably waiting for a free democratic society at his border when he's under fire for eroding democratic society in his own country. But it's a lesser of two evils and when push comes to shove he will most likely support the opposition. I wouldn't even be surprised if he proposes Thikanovskaya exile in Russia after which it would be completely over for Lukashenko. But ofcourse, Putin will only ever respect Belarus' integrity if it rejects any interferences from the E.U. or Nato so he will probably require some guarantees. So I guess time will tell.

You're absolutely right about Trump. He would do away with those pesky institutions if he could.

 

[Agema]

Yeah, I believe that was one of the main reasons why relations between Putin and Lukashenko soured; issues over further integration. Putin only seems to intervene when there are overtures by the E.U. or Nato which was the case with Ukraine and Georgia and explains the annexation of Crimea and the small separatist republics around it's border. My guess is the Kremlin will first try to strengthen the ties with the opposition because for Putin it really doesn't matter if it's Lukashenko or Thikanovskaya the now de facto elected leader. As long as they just stay away from the E.U. The protestors aren't waving E.U. flags but neither are they waving the flags Russia introduced but rather they are only waving their own national flags. Which kind of makes the countries alignment difficult to gauge.

Lukashenko's time has come and gone. It's not in Putin's interest to intervene and keep him in power when he lost all the support of his population. But neither is he probably waiting for a free democratic society at his border when he's under fire for eroding democratic society in his own country. But it's a lesser of two evils and when push comes to shove he will most likely support the opposition. I wouldn't even be surprised if he proposes Thikanovskaya exile in Russia after which it would be completely over for Lukashenko. But ofcourse, Putin will only ever respect Belarus' integrity if it rejects any interferences from the E.U. or Nato so he will probably require some guarantees. So I guess time will tell.

Yep. I think Putin won't save Lukashenko either, because he knows Lukashenko is already too damaged, and propping him up just hurts Russian influence in the long-term by antagonising Belarusians. My guess is he'll sit and wait to see if Lukashenko holds on. If not, Putin will offer to step in and broker a transition, and if Lukeshenko does survive, probably tell him time's up and arrange a succession behind the scenes.

I can't help but feel Putin's in a difficult place here. As you say, he needs to keep Belarus onside, but he doesn't want the cost of flooding it with money that Russia can't really afford, but he must be wary of destabilising it with aggression (as he did in Ukraine) as it may permanently estrange the two. I guess he could force Lukashenko to sell key industries (particularly the media) to Russian or Russian-backed cronies: at that point, any president who wanted to move towards the EU could just be obliterated by a mass media campaign.