I won't play it because I'm not into StarWars, but I don't thing you can say something will fail even before it is out. Burning Crusade was a failure compaired to the original WoW and Lich King was worse. idk that you could predict that either. Maybe if they get rid of ninja looting everyone will come back. But, this is based on knowledge of the prior product. Not a new MMO.
BioWare's Star Wars MMO Won't Make Any Money, Says Free-to-Play Developer
- Thread starter Logan Westbrook
- Start date
Just crunching those numbers here, because I have no problem with what you think in the rest of it. 10 million subscribers is 150 million a month. That's 1.8 billion a year. Minus the 300 million development and marketing costs. That person thinks TOR will cost 1.5 billion dollars a year to keep running?faefrost said:
If 10 million subscribers is required to turn a profit, how come Blizzard is making so much money with only 12 million?
Yea, it is impossible that it require 10 million to turn a profit. I remember EA said Warhammer 40k is paying for itself, and it is no where near 10 million subscribers. Also Blizzard made so much profit that in 2007 it was the second largest independent publisher (after EA) before merge with Activision (and the largest after the merge). Even though, it only publish like 3 games (warcraft3, Diablo2, WoW) in 7 years.seditary said:
Personally i'm not impressed with what I've seen of the combat system, though i admit that the last time i checked on it was when some of the very first info concerning it was being released. But it looks to me that they're using a very similar system to KoTOR 1&2 which i only tolerated for the sake of the story. I won't be picking the game up as it is.
But the idea that wow has cornered the market on subscription based mmos? I don't see it at all. I could only ever play one mmo at a time, theres simply too much to do to be able to divide my attention between multiple mmos, hell theres almost too much to do to divide my attention between multiple toons. You wouldn't find me playing two mmos at once even if neither were subscription based. So the way i see it, the fact that other mmos even exist is a sign that there are more people out there that are willing to play them.
If these Hubertz guys are having problems charging a subscription for their mmos i'd say it's cause they're not making games good enough to justify it. But i'll stop there because I've never played one of their games... but who tries to run MULTIPLE mmos? Instead of creating a lot of content for one they divide their attention creating less content for more? Would i be far off if i guessed that they can't charge a subscription because they're not making content fast enough for any one of those games to keep players interested enough to play for an extended period of time?
But the idea that wow has cornered the market on subscription based mmos? I don't see it at all. I could only ever play one mmo at a time, theres simply too much to do to be able to divide my attention between multiple mmos, hell theres almost too much to do to divide my attention between multiple toons. You wouldn't find me playing two mmos at once even if neither were subscription based. So the way i see it, the fact that other mmos even exist is a sign that there are more people out there that are willing to play them.
If these Hubertz guys are having problems charging a subscription for their mmos i'd say it's cause they're not making games good enough to justify it. But i'll stop there because I've never played one of their games... but who tries to run MULTIPLE mmos? Instead of creating a lot of content for one they divide their attention creating less content for more? Would i be far off if i guessed that they can't charge a subscription because they're not making content fast enough for any one of those games to keep players interested enough to play for an extended period of time?
Oh, it'll make money. I don't think it'll make a quantity that matches what people expect but it'll do decently. Just like Warhammer online and LOTRO and others like that. At a very fundamental level anything will sell well up front just on the basis that it's not WoW. There's enough people like that to have made Age of Conan and Age of Reckoning semi-successful. Couple that with the fact that it's starwars and inevitably you'll see good sales.
What it won't do is dwarf WoW. It literally looks too much like WoW, or, at least, everything we've already seen.
If there's an MMO on the horizon that has my money of being half way decent and not a copy to some degree of everything we've already seen it's actually Guild Wars 2. A lot of what they're proposing is very interesting and it's the kind of natural evolution of a genre that you'd expect.
What it won't do is dwarf WoW. It literally looks too much like WoW, or, at least, everything we've already seen.
If there's an MMO on the horizon that has my money of being half way decent and not a copy to some degree of everything we've already seen it's actually Guild Wars 2. A lot of what they're proposing is very interesting and it's the kind of natural evolution of a genre that you'd expect.
ok, lets analyze this
star wars mmo by bioware
star wars - who plays games... nerds, enough said for that section
mmo - many people like mmo's due to the fact they they are usually very expansive and have constant updates
bioware - famous for many good games that are rock solid and again, continuous updates (mainly dlc's)
that being said, i wont be getting it, i dislike star wars and bioware developing an mmo based on it will not change that
star wars mmo by bioware
star wars - who plays games... nerds, enough said for that section
mmo - many people like mmo's due to the fact they they are usually very expansive and have constant updates
bioware - famous for many good games that are rock solid and again, continuous updates (mainly dlc's)
that being said, i wont be getting it, i dislike star wars and bioware developing an mmo based on it will not change that
You see, if there was a World of Starcraft (or Galaxy of Starcraft), and if there was at least more involving combat (TPS-style, like Global Agenda, but the combat feeling more like Dark Void) then that I would play.SelectivelyEvil13 said:
Yes, I know that it this seems a bit niche, but a WoW-PvE-style MMOTPS would be pretty cool (rather than PvP like Global Agenda and Planetscape are based on). I'm not one for RTSs, but the Starcraft universe is an interesting one to say the very least.
Im on mr. hubertz boat. game currently feels too much like a WoW Clone. yeh great it has dialog but everything else just seems dated.
Star Trek has a huge following if not a larger one than Star Wars and that didn't help Star Trek Online... so to assume just cause Star Wars has a big following its going to keep it from dying all the same is naive.
Probably gonna make it big on the first and second month, but i doubt SW:TOR is gonna have the retention rate needed to sustain the MMO.
Star Trek has a huge following if not a larger one than Star Wars and that didn't help Star Trek Online... so to assume just cause Star Wars has a big following its going to keep it from dying all the same is naive.
Probably gonna make it big on the first and second month, but i doubt SW:TOR is gonna have the retention rate needed to sustain the MMO.
KOTOR online will most likely make money via subscriptions. Its stars wars for one and Bioware making it. Mix them together and it should make something beautiful. Also the game will probably be forever expanding and I bet it won't be long after release before they code in free space flight for the game.
Without getting into the debate about the relative merits of a game none of us have played I think that the point about SW:TOR being in financial trouble is very well taken. The big point a lot of you are missing is that of budget, yes its Star Wars and Bioware so yes it will probably do pretty well out of the gate but that isn't enough. Bioware has spared no expense on this game and so they will need some pretty astronomical numbers to even break even.
Lets be as generous to Bioware as possible and assume that total cost on SW:TOR is 100 million. Assuming price of $60 and monthly subscription of $15, first month free (pretty typical) so the effective price of the game is $45. Lets also make the very generous assumption that server upkeep and what not costs nothing beyond the initial $100 million outlay.
As points of comparison lets consider a few other recent big name MMO's initial sales
Aion: 1 million (As far as I can tell SW:TOR is only being released initially in NA and Europe so ignoring Asian numbers).
Warhammer Online: 1.2 Million
Even the juggernaut we now know as WoW only had an initial subscriber base of 1.5-2 million.
Lets assume that somehow SW:TOR is about the same as WoW at 2 million initial subscriber base, that covers about 90 million of the outlay and Bioware will end up turning a profit within a few months.
If we however assume that there is some validity to the 300 million rumor bioware is going to need 100% retention for 7 months, that is unrealistic to the point of absurdity. For every MMO since WoW retention rates past the first few months fall off very rapidly, and in the long term you are looking at a subscriber base of at best 50% of the initial subscriber base.
Now the truth probably lies somewhere in the middle and of course we have things like server and support costs which I've neglected so we're probably talking about being in the red for 1 quarter to 5 months with the really crazy retention number assumptions I made above. With more reasonable retention rate numbers I could easily see Bioware being in the red on SW:TOR for more then a year.
Yes games can survive on small subscriber bases but SW:TOR can't, at least not if they want to recoup costs anytime soon. Thats what Mr. Hubertz is saying and sadly for Bioware, he's probably right.
EDIT: For those of you who saw the first version of the post I made a really dumb math error, and have since rewritten my post. Its not as dire as I first stated but there is still a pretty solid point bu Mr. Hubertz.
Lets be as generous to Bioware as possible and assume that total cost on SW:TOR is 100 million. Assuming price of $60 and monthly subscription of $15, first month free (pretty typical) so the effective price of the game is $45. Lets also make the very generous assumption that server upkeep and what not costs nothing beyond the initial $100 million outlay.
As points of comparison lets consider a few other recent big name MMO's initial sales
Aion: 1 million (As far as I can tell SW:TOR is only being released initially in NA and Europe so ignoring Asian numbers).
Warhammer Online: 1.2 Million
Even the juggernaut we now know as WoW only had an initial subscriber base of 1.5-2 million.
Lets assume that somehow SW:TOR is about the same as WoW at 2 million initial subscriber base, that covers about 90 million of the outlay and Bioware will end up turning a profit within a few months.
If we however assume that there is some validity to the 300 million rumor bioware is going to need 100% retention for 7 months, that is unrealistic to the point of absurdity. For every MMO since WoW retention rates past the first few months fall off very rapidly, and in the long term you are looking at a subscriber base of at best 50% of the initial subscriber base.
Now the truth probably lies somewhere in the middle and of course we have things like server and support costs which I've neglected so we're probably talking about being in the red for 1 quarter to 5 months with the really crazy retention number assumptions I made above. With more reasonable retention rate numbers I could easily see Bioware being in the red on SW:TOR for more then a year.
Yes games can survive on small subscriber bases but SW:TOR can't, at least not if they want to recoup costs anytime soon. Thats what Mr. Hubertz is saying and sadly for Bioware, he's probably right.
EDIT: For those of you who saw the first version of the post I made a really dumb math error, and have since rewritten my post. Its not as dire as I first stated but there is still a pretty solid point bu Mr. Hubertz.
Man needs to learn how to use a calculator.
Let's assume that the budget is $100mil as the official source says (I find it best not to listen to "leaks". Especially when there's absolutely no evidence they're not trolls, or even rival companies).
If they get $15 a month (and usually higher in other countries due to bad exchange rates) from a little over 250,000 subscribers (which most MMOGs appear to manage) it would take them 2 years to repay.
On the other hand, TOR has a massive advertising campaign around it, an already huge community, the entire Star Wars franchise to draw from and Bioware's sterling reputation. I personally think it likely TOR will achieve 500,000 players, which, obviously, would mean only 1 year would be needed.
Then you've got considerable merchandising on the side, and the potential for micro transactions in game in addition to the subscribtion model.
Even with my limited knowledge of economics I can see TOR will make a profit, it's just a matter of how much profit, and how long it's take to break even.
Let's assume that the budget is $100mil as the official source says (I find it best not to listen to "leaks". Especially when there's absolutely no evidence they're not trolls, or even rival companies).
If they get $15 a month (and usually higher in other countries due to bad exchange rates) from a little over 250,000 subscribers (which most MMOGs appear to manage) it would take them 2 years to repay.
On the other hand, TOR has a massive advertising campaign around it, an already huge community, the entire Star Wars franchise to draw from and Bioware's sterling reputation. I personally think it likely TOR will achieve 500,000 players, which, obviously, would mean only 1 year would be needed.
Then you've got considerable merchandising on the side, and the potential for micro transactions in game in addition to the subscribtion model.
Even with my limited knowledge of economics I can see TOR will make a profit, it's just a matter of how much profit, and how long it's take to break even.
I have not played Dark Void and I am unaware of what Global Agenda is, but after googling some pictures of the later, that looks cool! i agree that Starcraft could have potential for an excellent game outside of the RTS realm, but especially if they diversify it or make it more niche. I do not have the time or interest for MMOs, with WoW leading that pack, so at least something different would interest those like me to at least consider.Megacherv said:
I also really cannot say that I am knowledgeable of KOTOR or this new installment, but it generally does not make me personally want to enter into an MMO (even though that wouldn't even be feasible what with the lack of time!
).But the above Starcraft game? Well, that does admittedly appeal to me... So long as the graphics are on the realistic side to flesh out the horrors of its battles.
If it's a decent game the subscription model should work just fine. I know I subscribe to WoW, and have played LoTRO in the past, and the subscription model that LoTRO worked off of had absolutely nothing to do with my quitting the game.
The interviewee also may be a little biased, as he makes his living off F2P games, and so it would make sense he'd feel that F2P is the way to go for the future....just sayin'
The interviewee also may be a little biased, as he makes his living off F2P games, and so it would make sense he'd feel that F2P is the way to go for the future....just sayin'
Probably hundreds of thousands of people at least actually.Crimsane said:
The low end MMO market is absolutely massive. The population of them all likely outnumbers WoW. Though I prefer wow still
.As much as I like Bioware, and forgive them for ever letting Obsidian touch any of their properties. This game will fail pretty hard.
I don't necessarily want it to, I just know it will.
I've always wondered why people seem to overlook Guild Wars? Even with instanced environments it was the runner up to WoW and now with its sequel it offers more than the competition. It has the beauty and art style of Aion, a great story like The Old Republic, the openness of WoW, and no monthly fees.
Is there a personal grudge against the game or are people trying not to get too hyped up for fear of disappointment?
Is there a personal grudge against the game or are people trying not to get too hyped up for fear of disappointment?
I just wanted to point out that no one in their right mind should take anything that Jack Emmert has to say about the MMO industry as anything other than the speculations of a huge faker that got lucky once with a mediocre game and has been riding the wave of mediocrity ever since.
I kid you not, if you go back and look at any of his interviews of speaking engagements at conferences prior to say, the fecal explosion that was the launch of Champions Online, and take his statements/commentary about the MMO industry - and then line them up across the board with statements made post Champions, you'll see that the man does nothing but guess and contradict himself, time after time after time.
Hell, as a prognosticator, if Jack Emmert jumped off the empire state building, I doubt he could predict what would happen about 20 or 30 seconds later with any sort of accuracy. This guy is just *that clueless*
I kid you not, if you go back and look at any of his interviews of speaking engagements at conferences prior to say, the fecal explosion that was the launch of Champions Online, and take his statements/commentary about the MMO industry - and then line them up across the board with statements made post Champions, you'll see that the man does nothing but guess and contradict himself, time after time after time.
Hell, as a prognosticator, if Jack Emmert jumped off the empire state building, I doubt he could predict what would happen about 20 or 30 seconds later with any sort of accuracy. This guy is just *that clueless*