Phoenixmgs said:
Lil devils x said:
I do not think this is good advice. Instead, EVERYONE should behave as though they have the virus and can spread it to others and actively take measures to avoid spreading it to others. This means getting together with a few friends without adequate PPE is not something that should be done right now until we have the means to actually treat patients because any one of those friends could be a carrier, or could have an unknown underlying condition that could result in severe illness. Intentionally contracting it is honestly a pretty stupid thing to do. The difference between catching it now and catching it later can be the difference between whether or not you live or die. Until we have treatment options readily available, you will have a higher risk of severe illness or death. Waiting for the medical community to have more time to gain more data and prepare means we will have more of the knowledge and resources we need to improve patient outcomes.
The medical community all over the world right now is diligently working on and testing treatments so that we will be able to save more lives. The goal here is to buy time for us to have what we need to combat the virus, not to just " let people get sick in waves". That isn't our goal at all here, as far too many people will die unnecessarily if we allow that to happen. The goal here is to keep as many people as we possibly can from contracting the virus so that we can better take care of those that do and buy time to be able to better treat the people who do become ill.
If everyone actively behaves like they have the virus and takes measures to not spread it to others, we will have the time we need to be better prepared to handle new outbreaks when they happen in the future. In addition, when they reopen businesses, this will be slow and in stages, and not just " everyone go back to the way it was". They really should make sure they have enough adequate PPE on hand supplied to those working in public at every stage of the process and not move on to the next stage until they do and this be the " way of life" until we have adequate means to treat and combat the virus, whether that it be an effective treatment or a vaccine. Intentionally infecting people in waves is ignorant and unethical so I can't imagine any government in their right mind would actually choose to do that in the first place.
This virus could likely end up with a fatality rate under 1%, this isn't ebola. Currently, the virus only really becomes deadly (to like 5% at worst) when health care is overwhelmed. The goal is just to not have that happen. And, that will more than happen if people reduce their human interactions by 90+%. The people with conditions that put them at higher risk definitely should be as isolated as possible and far more cautious. I definitely didn't say to intentionally get the virus by any means, I don't know where you got that from. When the US and other countries reopen the economy, there isn't going to be a treatment or a vaccine unless you actually think everyone is going to stay home for 3+ months, that's just not going to happen. A vaccine won't even be ready this year, it's possible that a current drug will be good at treating the virus but that will be months as well. Unless you're in a country like Taiwan that's been able to put the virus on lockdown basically, you are going to most likely get the virus before there is a treatment or vaccine. In countries like the US where locking down the virus isn't possible anymore, having a nice slow rate of infections is the best way to handle it building up herd immunity. The best current "treatment" is good testing and tracing, which the US is sorely behind on.
Stating:
What does it really matter if you get it now due to seeing some friends once or twice a week with maybe like a 10% chance of getting it vs having a high % chance when the country opens back up? You're just changing WHEN you get it, not if you get it.
Getting it now vs getting it later means getting it when we do not have treatment options available to increase favorable patient outcomes to waiting until we do have treatment options available to increase favorable patient outcomes. We are not just trying to keep our healthcare systems from being overcapacity, we are trying to buy time to find better ways to treat it so we can increase the survival rate. Intentionally ignoring the warning and doing things that have been determined to increase the spread, like getting together with friends, is intentionally exposing oneself and others and taking unnecessary risks. The idea here is not just to "control the flow", we currently do not have adequate treatments available even when you do come into the hospital. It isn't just about being overcrowded here, even if you were the ONLY patient in the entire hospital right now, if you become severe, we do not have " tried and true" methods to increase your survivability yet. Currently we are "just trying things and seeing if they work" and that is not a good place to be if you become severe right now. The longer we can postpone people contracting it, the more time we have to come up with better treatments. The current survival rate of COVID-19 patients on ventilators is not good.
Most of the people who come down with severe illness from COVID-19 did not think it would happen to them either. Many people do not even know if they have underlying conditions. We have had people of all ages, genders, ethnicities come down with severe illness and even die from COVID-19, some who were considered healthy without any known preexisting conditions even with ample medical care. We still do not even know if there is any long term protective immunity from contracting it, so that certainly is not something that should be used to determine policy.
No, trying to build up " herd immunity" when we do not even know if that is possible, nor how long any protective immunity lasts from contracting the virus is not in any way the "best solution". That is a myth that has been long busted here:
https://iser.med.unsw.edu.au/blog/busting-myths-about-covid-19-herd-immunity-children-and-lives-vs-jobs
https://www.sciencealert.com/why-herd-immunity-will-not-save-us-from-the-covid-19-pandemic
What we ARE trying to do here is reduce the number of people contracting COVID-19 until we can find a way to increase favorable patient outcomes. We need time here more than anything else. Instead of people accepting that they are going to get it at some point and letting their guard down, they need to be doing everything in their power to prevent it's spread. We have healthy first responders on the front lines here that we believe are coming down with severe illness due to the size of the viral load they are being exposed to.
The initial dose of virus and the amount of virus an individual has at any one time might worsen the severity of COVID 19 disease. Viral load is a measure of the number of viral particles present in an individual. Higher SARS-CoV-2 viral loads. might worsen outcomes, and data from China suggests the viral load is higher in patients with more severe disease. The amount of virus exposure at the start of infection ? the infectious dose ? may increase the severity of the illness and is also. linked to a higher viral load
Healthcare workers can be exposed more often due to numerous infected individuals exposures. In the early stages of an outbreak, initial contacts might not be recognized, particularly contacts with those with mild symptoms, or when the use of protective measures is suboptimal. Reducing the frequency and intensity of exposure to SARs-CoV-2 might reduce the infectious dose and result in less severe cases.
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/sars-cov-2-viral-load-and-the-severity-of-covid-19/
This idea that people should just expect to get it is a terrible one. If I get it, for example, I have a low probability of survival. I have already survived another severe respiratory illness that I contracted while working with MSF that damaged my lungs in the same way that COVID-19 does and likely could not withstand more damage to my lungs. Whether or not you contract it can affect me, and everyone else who has/ can/ will die from this, as every single person who contracts it effects the probability of someone who will become severe contracting it. I still have to leave my home to go to the doctor myself as well. It isn't like we can all stay in our homes forever and that isn't what is being expected of us here. We just have to take the proper precautions when we do, and for the time being ,until we can actually do more than "just try what we can to save you to see what works" and obtain more reliable treatments, people should only go out when necessary.
Where I am at in Texas is under lockdown. I do not expect us to be under lockdown forever. I do expect everyone in public to have PPE right now, practice social distancing and utilize mitigating practices to help reduce the spread until we can obtain better treatments. If people continue to practice these mitigating efforts we will be able to open up more options slowly WHILE still utilizing proper PPE, social distancing and hygiene practices to keep people safe. As long as people actually comply with the efforts, we will be able to do more. If they fail to comply or it starts to surge again once we start opening up, we will have to shut if back down again. I know that is not what some want to hear, but it is what it will take to prevent this from becoming catastrophic. It is also a myth that the US cannot "lockdown". IF a nation with over 1.3 billion people can lock it down and reduce their numbers, A nation with over 300 million can do so as well, it is all a matter of leadership, enforcement, resource distribution and compliance, and no, we do not need to close our hospitals to accomplish this. The less PPE provided, the less compliance and enforcement, the longer this will take and the worse it will be.