Did you miss BREXIT now that it is technically done ?

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Boris Johnson tells UK: prepare for a no-deal Brexit
"Prime minister says EU must change its approach to talks if deal to be reached


Boris Johnson has claimed there will be no more trade and security talks unless the EU adopts a “fundamental change of approach”, as he seeks to increase pressure on Brussels to give ground in the negotiations.

In a televised statement on Friday, the prime minister said the country would have to prepare for a no-deal scenario on 1 January, with his spokesman further toughening up the rhetoric later in the day.

“The trade talks are over – the EU have effectively ended them yesterday when they said they did not want to change their negotiating position,” the spokesman said, while stopping short of announcing the UK’s intention to decisively walk away.

Downing Street’s bravado was swiftly undermined in Brussels, where officials and leaders leaving an EU summit said they had no reason to believe the negotiations would not continue."


So is anyone even the least bit surprised that what everyone has been telling them all along is still the case?
 

Agema

You have no authority here, Jackie Weaver
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Boris Johnson tells UK: prepare for a no-deal Brexit
"Prime minister says EU must change its approach to talks if deal to be reached

...
So is anyone even the least bit surprised that what everyone has been telling them all along is still the case?
Johnson is a like Trump on the truthfulness stakes - except I think the constant stream of lies is slightly more strategic where Trump's is instinctual habit. (I also think that like Trump, he is lazy, disorganised and ignorant, and much happier to act like he's in charge than be in charge.) There are very mixed messages here: on the one hand the UK government appears to be struggling for a deal. On the other the PM repeatedly threatens to walk away.

It is possible that this time it really is the end of the road because the UK has found it can't shake anything more out of the EU. But I notice it's not actually closed the door and refused to sign a deal yet.

2021 is going be a hard year for the UK as well. I doubt Johnson's reign as PM will survive much past Brexit: he's being left to see it out by his party so no-one else gets stained by the mess they all know is coming. Funny thing is, Johnson probably knows that too. He'll be happy to have his name go down in history, and return to his journalist job at the Daily Telegraph for over £300k a year. I suppose it is possible that if it's bad enough for the UK, his reputation might be so damaged they won't be prepared to employ him, but I wouldn't pin my hopes on it.
 

Thaluikhain

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Still threatening the EU with destroying his economy at them? Are UK voters still impressed by that?
 

Agema

You have no authority here, Jackie Weaver
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Still threatening the EU with destroying his economy at them? Are UK voters still impressed by that?
Some of them, amongst the more hardline Eurosceptics which will very much make up the Tory-Brexit core: they have faith in the glory of their decision.

The Brexit vote has slipped slightly, but ultimately been robust: in a straight-up referendum to stay or leave held tomorrow, odds are Brexit would lose, but only narrowly. However, since the 2016 referendum, people are not just voting for whether it's good or bad to leave the EU, they're also voting on the fact the original referendum should be honoured. If we therefore look at how many people think things are going well, and whether it's good or bad if we leave the EU without a deal, we're down to about 30-40% support, which approximates to the Eurosceptic core. So "Bregret" might be substantial, but it doesn't translate into scrapping Brexit, largely because people want their 2016 vote honoured even if it's bad for them. That same logic of honouring the referendum drives tolerance of no deal.

I suspect that Brexit will need to happen and Brexiters will have to suck up pain before national attitudes will really start to shift. However, in that sense covid-19 is a massive Brexit godsend, because the substantial short-term damage of Brexit will be concealed by the damage of covid-19. If we assume the UK will start to do worse than the EU, it will poteitnally be years before this really becomes clear, with a drip-feed of insipid growth and relative decline compared to the continent.
 

Baffle

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I can't tell what gives the English bigger boners - fish or hating the French.
 

Catfood220

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I can't tell what gives the English bigger boners - fish or hating the French.
Are they still out fish if they swim away? If so, someone should be out there radio tagging them so we know where our fish are at all times.
 

Baffle

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Are they still out fish if they swim away? If so, someone should be out there radio tagging them so we know where our fish are at all times.
Need to check their accent. If it's French, gotta throw it back. If I was a clever fish I'd learn to do a Pepe Le Pew accent and a Danny Dyer one.
 

Agema

You have no authority here, Jackie Weaver
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I can't tell what gives the English bigger boners - fish or hating the French.
Well, that's today's Tories for you: sacrifice £50 billion in car sales for £0.5 billion in fish. "Party of economic competence", they say.

Boris says a no deal with the EU will be "wonderful" and the UK will be free to thrive. If that were really true, he wouldn't be frantically tying to hash out a deal, would he?

Do you know how I think this is going to end in a few weeks? It's not going to end. There's going to a be a partial deal, we'll get a few changes, but the can is to be kicked down the road on key matters for another 3-6 months. The transition period thus will end, and we'll move into a new transition period which is totally not a transition period because they promised us that wouldn't happen, and the proof it's not a transition period is that it's not called one. And no doubt in March or June 2021 or whenever, we'll go through the same bloody shambles about the same bloody topics, and another chunk of it will be deferred with another not-transition period.
 

Satinavian

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No, the transition period ends and we will have tariffs from 1.1.2021 on. There is no time to implement anything else than the No-Deal-preparations that have been done over the last year.

Sure, they might continue to negotiate a news deal, but until that is done, no deal will be in full effect.
 

Agema

You have no authority here, Jackie Weaver
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No, the transition period ends and we will have tariffs from 1.1.2021 on. There is no time to implement anything else than the No-Deal-preparations that have been done over the last year.
If at 11.59pm on 31/12/20 the UK and EU so agree, tariffs will not arrive on 1/1/2021: the status quo can just roll merrily on. Maybe there will be tariffs for some things and not others. Maybe there will be a temporary fix for NI that will still need endless more negotiation. The permutations are endless.

I certainly think the EU should impose tariffs and get on with things, rather than get dicked around for even longer by the shower of shit that rules the UK. But the EU is nothing if not patient and willing to make things work.
 

Satinavian

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If at 11.59pm on 31/12/20 the UK and EU so agree, tariffs will not arrive on 1/1/2021: the status quo can just roll merrily on. Maybe there will be tariffs for some things and not others. Maybe there will be a temporary fix for NI that will still need endless more negotiation. The permutations are endless.

I certainly think the EU should impose tariffs and get on with things, rather than get dicked around for even longer by the shower of shit that rules the UK. But the EU is nothing if not patient and willing to make things work.
From 1.1. on every import and export has to be filed as Non-EU to the EU customs offices with the proper forms. And while many tariffs must indeed be imposed first, from 1.1. on all GB goods lose the EU origin criterium for preferential treatment. Which means existing tariffs of third countries that are lowered for EU origin kick in instantly. That is also true for anything that comes out of production chains. There are many treaties that e.g. state that there is no tariff on woolen overcoats exported to Marokko (fictional example) if they are produced inside the EU to at least 60%. If something is produded to 20% in GB and to 40% in Poland, it will suddenly be a non-EU item and subject to the full tariff.
And then there is the fact that many tariffs already exist and are not used because of exemptions. If those exemptions are no longer valid, the tariff is in full effect, there is no need to impose them first.


The one exception is that GB can still use NCTS to make custom controls at places other than the border possible. That is something otherwise only available to the EU, Switzerland, Liechtenstein and Norwegia.


The only headache inducing thing is NI atm. Did you know that NI will not be featured as "GB" on German custom forms but as "XI" from next year on ?



Whether it is possible to just prolong the transition period, i am very sceptical. While many preparations were done with some kind of abort mechanism in case there will be a surprise treaty i am absolutely certain it would be way harder to stop everything now than it is to go ahead with no deal. And i am also sceptical whether it would be even legally possible to prolong transition.
 
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Silvanus

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We're out of the EU, but we're still aligned with all the regulations until the end of December (under the Withdrawal Agreement). We won't feel the direct impact until the new year.

It's looking like the most direct and immediate impact is going to an almighty lorry traffic jam in Kent, as trade via Dover & Calais grinds to a crawl. I think we can expect that in early January, along with a lot of recrimination from those who just assumed it would all work itself out. There's also going to be a lot of recrimination over Ireland, now that it's clear there actually will be a trade barrier between the island of Ireland and Britain, which Johnson swore there wouldn't be.

We can expect a lot of bitter criticism from people who were warned, and really should have known it was coming, but chose to blindly trust a career charlatan instead of their own senses and expert advice.
 

Agema

You have no authority here, Jackie Weaver
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Whether it is possible to just prolong the transition period, i am very sceptical.
It is totally possible. They've already rearranged supposed dates at whim several times, they can do it again. It was in fact the British who decided the end of this year was "final": the EU had offered to extend it due to covid-19. And of course it's the UK not remotely ready to exit, because that's what a loltastic shower Johnson's Tories are.
 

Baffle

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There's going to a be a partial deal, we'll get a few changes, but the can is to be kicked down the road on key matters for another 3-6 months.
Well, looks like you're right, trade talks extended. Again.

I'm glad the lack of certainty isn't killing businesses.
 
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Agema

You have no authority here, Jackie Weaver
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Seems like a bad time to leave cause of covid.
It's bad to leave full stop. The pandemic and sky-high national debt just make it even worse.

Well, looks like you're right, trade talks extended. Again.

I'm glad the lack of certainty isn't killing businesses.
I occasionally see those billboards around saying to prepare for Brexit. How do we prepare for Brexit when we don't even know what it is? Every business with international ties knows Brexit is a fuck-up, the civil service knows, even (as claimed by some politicians and journalists) half the cabinet knows but they won't admit it. The stupid thing is that the government knows it and the country isn't ready for a no deal Brexit. It might not even be ready for a minor deal Brexit. What it publicly announces is mostly utterly divorced from reality, as is plain to anyone paying much attention. Thankfully for the Tories, most of the population isn't paying much attention.

And so we get all this stupid talk, but under the hood, the UK has no credible choice whatsoever but to roll things over to next time. This is what I mean about the transition period. The transition period exists on the assumption that there needs to be a reasonable space before rule changes are announced and their implementation so business and people can prepare - and that means the EU as well as UK. Instead, the entire transition period has been eaten up by continued negotiations about what the rules even are. There will therefore need to be a new transition period.

That said, I do believe at this point the UK government may be dishonestly "playing for time" just to give itself a shot at installing sufficient measures to be able to no deal without crises of medical and food shortages.
 
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stroopwafel

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I occasionally see those billboards around saying to prepare for Brexit. How do we prepare for Brexit when we don't even know what it is?
Yep, I see them too. Espescially in the industrial district. Thing is a lot of companies only trade within the E.U. and have no experience with customs procedures, declaring import duties. filing for im/export licenses. Within the E.U. most of that is harmonized within the same automated system but now you suddenly have to deal with a different bureaucracy entirely. The business changes from intracommunal to im/export.

I think they are probably afraid that companies will send trucks to the U.K. with no preparation whatsoever resulting in a traffic infarction at the border with all due consequences. It will probably depend how lenient U.K. customs will be with these procedures to manage incoming traffic. There is a mutual interest so they will probably coordinate with the E.U. on some level. But no doubt the supply chain is going to suffer b/c of delays.