Fukushima worst case scenario: can someone explain it???

[rbstewart7263]

Ive heard it described as chernobyl times 85 and that in the worst case scenario the entire northern hemisphere would be forced to evacuate. So what exactly happens here? I assume that japan would be screwed but what about the us? china russia? what is life like in the us after that? is there life in the us after that or would we be leaving this huge mass of land forever? would we even be able to evacuate and leave in time and would it matter?

 

[Thaluikhain]

Ive heard it described as chernobyl times 85 and that in the worst case scenario the entire northern hemisphere would be forced to evacuate. So what exactly happens here?

Either the media is intentionally lying, or they are asking the wrong kind of experts.

You'll notice that Japan happens to be the same nation that 2 nuclear devices were used on. The nation that built them was also in the northern hemisphere also had the 3 mile island accident, and tested quite a few above ground weapons, to use on another northern hemisphere nation that tested its own weapons and had a nasty accident of their own.

Fukushima is going to massive be worse than all that? No. Flat out that is bullshit, worst kind of scaremongering.

 

[rbstewart7263]

Ive heard it described as chernobyl times 85 and that in the worst case scenario the entire northern hemisphere would be forced to evacuate. So what exactly happens here?

Either the media is intentionally lying, or they are asked the wrong kind of experts.

You'll notice that Japan happens to be the same nation that 2 nuclear devices were used on. The nation that built them was also in the northern hemisphere also had the 3 mile island accident, and tested quite a few above ground weapons, to use on another northern hemisphere nation that tested its own weapons and had a nasty accident of their own.

Fukushima is going to massive be worse than all that? No. Flat out that is bullshit, worst kind of scaremongering.

well heres my links:http://www.ryot.org/one-wrong-move-at-fukushima-could-unleash-a-nuclear-disaster-equivalent-to-85-chernobyls/388813

http://truth-out.org/news/item/19073-risky-repair-of-fukushima-could-spill-15000-times-the-radiation-of-hiroshima-create-85-chernobyls

If what your saying is true how is it bullshit? I mean they want this cleanup to work so that the public doesnt crucify every money making nuclear reactor out there.(as opposed I think to just pouring concrete over the whole thing Im really not sure just worried)

but yeah super worried here at 6.

 

[Esotera]

Basically at the minute the plant is leaking radioactive water, which is being collected in a bunch of big tanks without any real plan for when they run out of tanks. I've heard the idea of an ice wall to contain the radioactive water which to be honest is just asking for the creation of super-mutant white walkers.

The reason this matters is that the radioactive water could quite easily leak into the groundwater or sea and contaminate that. If it gets into the food supply that could mean higher radiation doses than normal, depending on the level it could result in some public health risks.

 

[rbstewart7263]

Basically at the minute the plant is leaking radioactive water, which is being collected in a bunch of big tanks without any real plan for when they run out of tanks. I've heard the idea of an ice wall to contain the radioactive water which to be honest is just asking for the creation of super-mutant white walkers.

The reason this matters is that the radioactive water could quite easily leak into the groundwater or sea and contaminate that. If it gets into the food supply that could mean higher radiation doses than normal, depending on the level it could result in some public health risks.

So no evacuation of northern hemisphere?
Also I love your profile pic. very offensive and grand.

 

[Thaluikhain]

If what your saying is true how is it bullshit? I mean they want this cleanup to work so that the public doesnt crucify every money making nuclear reactor out there.(as opposed I think to just pouring concrete over the whole thing Im really not sure just worried)

Ah, yes, that is certainly a concern. China loses something like 2,000 coal miners a year, coal plants produce enormous amounts of pollution (including, as it happens, radioactive), and nobody bats an eye. Anything goes wrong at a nuclear plant and people pretend the world is ending.

Particularly annoying is that the tsunami killed ten of thousands, caused massive destruction. The media dropped that the moment the word "nuclear" came up, because people drowning or being buried alive doesn't count, it seems.

 

[LetalisK]

The reason this matters is that the radioactive water could quite easily leak into the groundwater or sea and contaminate that. If it gets into the food supply that could mean higher radiation doses than normal, depending on the level it could result in some public health risks.

How radioactive are we talking here and how much water? I figure it could work to disperse it over the pacific ocean to dilute it into nothingness, but that could take a long time.

 

[Esotera]

So no evacuation of northern hemisphere?
Also I love your profile pic. very offensive and grand.

Doubt it, the situation seems relatively stable as long as they keep cooling the reactor, plus it's ages away from us.

The reason this matters is that the radioactive water could quite easily leak into the groundwater or sea and contaminate that. If it gets into the food supply that could mean higher radiation doses than normal, depending on the level it could result in some public health risks.

How radioactive are we talking here and how much water? I figure it could work to disperse it over the pacific ocean to dilute it into nothingness, but that could take a long time.

I have no idea how radioactive the water is but it's definitely above levels that are known to be safe...and ideally your nuclear power plant should never contaminate the surrounding area. As for the water it's got to be millions of litres at least, there's a lot of tanks. Any effect from the radiation is going to be localised - basically a greater rate of mutation in fish in the sea, and possibly on land as well. I'm not an expert and I haven't really looked into the figures at all.

 

[Hero in a half shell]

Ive heard it described as chernobyl times 85 and that in the worst case scenario the entire northern hemisphere would be forced to evacuate. So what exactly happens here? I assume that japan would be screwed but what about the us? china russia? what is life like in the us after that? is there life in the us after that or would we be leaving this huge mass of land forever? would we even be able to evacuate and leave in time and would it matter?

I... somehow doubt that.

They're moving the fuel cells 50 metres to another container. They won't start moving each fuel rod until they are sure it's secure, it's only travelling 50 metres. They aren't going to move them all at once, and this sort of thing happens all the time.


They've been moving fuel rods across continents for years, they've gotten quite good at it. 50 Metres should be a walk in the park.
I think we'll be fine.

 

[evilneko]

Just remember, when it comes to science, the media almost always gets it wrong. [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LdnZ1l5TxJk]

 

[wooty]

Its all out of proportion. I went to Japan literally two weeks after the whole Fukushima/Tsunami/Earthquakes event and it was not as it was described in the press.

I remember being stared at weirdly in the airport as me and my friend were the only white people attempting to enter Japan, walking past lines of westerners who were desperately trying to get out. We had a great time in the end, minus a couple of aftershocks which were curiously amusing.

 

[Heronblade]

Worst case scenario? A massive loss of containment may lead to local sealife getting lethal doses of radiation. Lots of dead fish and other organisms that you don't want to be eating. The radioactive water itself disperses to a harmless level fairly quickly. (More than likely it will have dropped to safe levels by the time it gets a kilometer or two away) Just how much long term damage is caused depends on how delicate the ecosystem around the plant actually is, which is not something I'm familiar with.

Somewhat more likely scenario? loss of containment leads to slightly elevated radiation levels in seawater until containment is reestablished. Local wildlife barely notices, and far more damage is caused by people panicking over the radiation than the radiation itself.

Most likely scenario? Containment holds, nothing happens

Frankly, this event is significantly less news worthy than Chernobyl was, and Chernobyl is exaggerated as well.

I would also like to point out that one of the articles you linked kept suggesting that the spent fuel rods at the Fukushima plant would blow up if they are exposed to air. Most people have no freaking clue how tough it is to create a nuclear detonation. In fact, if faced with a nuclear fusion bomb on a timer with no time left, simply hitting it hard enough with an axe can be an effective way to limit the damage, such an act would almost certainly not stop the plastic explosive in it from blowing up, but it can with a little luck effectively turn it into a small dirty bomb with zilch potential for fusion. (disclaimer: I do not in any way support hitting bombs with axes) For a wide variety of reasons, the idea of anyone deliberately getting spent fuel rods to detonate under the conditions found at Fukushima is at best laughable, having it happen by accident is physically impossible. I strongly suggest you find a better source.

 

[nepheleim]

The worst case scenario (which is generally a worst case scenario for all nuclear facilities) is the possibility of the core components breaching containment and falling into a large body of water. This would result in a massive (very radioactive) steam cloud swirling around where ever the wind may take it. Now, under physics-world type ideal circumstances, it is possible for that cloud to disperse over the entire northern hemisphere, but you would somehow have to keep the original steam cloud from condensing over the breach site immediately, and then keep it from condensing anywhere else while it spreads. Then, and only then, it has to condense, fall from the sky and contaminate everything. This, while possible, is also incredibly unlikely. Like, better chance of Pat Robertson accurately predicting the end of days unlikely.

 

[Heronblade]

The worst case scenario (which is generally a worst case scenario for all nuclear facilities) is the possibility of the core components breaching containment and falling into a large body of water. This would result in a massive (very radioactive) steam cloud swirling around where ever the wind may take it. Now, under physics-world type ideal circumstances, it is possible for that cloud to disperse over the entire northern hemisphere, but you would somehow have to keep the original steam cloud from condensing over the breach site immediately, and then keep it from condensing anywhere else while it spreads. Then, and only then, it has to condense, fall from the sky and contaminate everything. This, while possible, is also incredibly unlikely. Like, better chance of Pat Robertson accurately predicting the end of days unlikely.

At least to my knowledge, all core components have been secured to the point that there's no chance of that occurring (even if another tsunami were to whip through) The only thing at risk of falling into the water right now are the spent fuel rods, which will not have that effect.

 

[Someone Depressing]

The media always get science wrong. It's so people buy newspapers, ect.

The world's not ending. The worst case scenario outside of Japan is some people will grow a few extra toes from radiated water, or end up vomit-filled night. Sucks for them, but nothing catastrophic.

Really, China's coal-business, sweatshops, mining and hard labour are much bigger concerns than this. And nothing's being done. Really, this all comes down to the media asking idiots and being idiots.

 

[Yopaz]

Ive heard it described as chernobyl times 85 and that in the worst case scenario the entire northern hemisphere would be forced to evacuate. So what exactly happens here?

Either the media is intentionally lying, or they are asking the wrong kind of experts.

You'll notice that Japan happens to be the same nation that 2 nuclear devices were used on. The nation that built them was also in the northern hemisphere also had the 3 mile island accident, and tested quite a few above ground weapons, to use on another northern hemisphere nation that tested its own weapons and had a nasty accident of their own.

Fukushima is going to massive be worse than all that? No. Flat out that is bullshit, worst kind of scaremongering.

According to my professor in physics those people who panicked and hopped on the first plane home from Japan actually got more radiation from the flight than those who stayed in the area.

Well, worst case scenario here would be that there's a giant nuclear blast that kills off the entire planet. It's easy to throw out things like that because in the worst case things get really fucked up and we try to avoid it. When it doesn't happen we can always say that we got a better outcome than the worst case scenario.

The worst case scenario might not be likely and it might even be extremely implausible. We should worry when the most likely scenario is this bad. It isn't.

 

[The Rogue Wolf]

Well, the first problem is that you're trusting sites that are almost painfully obvious in their bias. There's "worst case scenario" and then there's "the same likelihood as every drop of gasoline on Earth exploding all at once", and it reminds me of the fears in the 50's that a nuclear detonation would set the entirety of the Earth's atmosphere on fire. (To be fair, though, back then most scientists just had the most basic of notions how atomic reactions and radiation really worked; even Robert Oppenheimer was worried about the scenario. No such excuse these days.)

I would also like to point out that one of the articles you linked kept suggesting that the spent fuel rods at the Fukushima plant would blow up if they are exposed to air.

I guess we can thank TV and movies for this level of stupidity. They'd have you believe that you could start a nuclear reaction just by ramming two things together really hard. Causing a sustainable nuclear reaction requires an exceedingly precise sequence of events that, were it remotely possible to "happen accidentally", probably would've happened a million times over during the course of the Earth's lifetime, seeing as how it's continuously bombarded with particles from space that our atmosphere can't screen out.

 

[rbstewart7263]

Ok Ive been reading all of the comments posted and they have alleviated my worries. thank you. I guess I should feel silly but now i have a reason to increase my knowledge of these kinds of things. And I guess the claim that knocking those rods together would blow everything up does sound a bit silly. As to the bias yeah I get alot of activist/humanitarian stuff on my facebook so I should probably be more wary of even those groups as well.(its bad when you gotta check bias on hacktivist this,lgbt that, even humanitarian which I thought far less likely to fall into those kinds of traps than others)

 

[Hero in a half shell]

Ok Ive been reading all of the comments posted and they have alleviated my worries. thank you. I guess I should feel silly but now i have a reason to increase my knowledge of these kinds of things. And I guess the claim that knocking those rods together would blow everything up does sound a bit silly. As to the bias yeah I get alot of activist/humanitarian stuff on my facebook so I should probably be more wary of even those groups as well.(its bad when you gotta check bias on hacktivist this,lgbt that, even humanitarian which I thought far less likely to fall into those kinds of traps than others)

Questioning opinion or extreme news is not something anyone should be ashamed of, especially if it's a subject you don't know anything about. It's what you do with the evidence when it's presented to you that shows your character. The fact that on seeing these reports you immediately went seeking advice on their truthfulness demonstrates that you clearly aren't as silly as you may feel.

Fukushima is a very complicated issue with a lot of conflicting information flying around it, the dangers of radiation is a very complicated subject, and a relatively new scientific field that humanity still doesn't know much about, but the official reports and information paint a pretty clear (and not pretty) picture of the crisis that they are facing at Fukushima, and while it's awful, it's perfectly manageable and radiation wise nothing that hasn't been seen before.