What the hell are you talking about? How the fuck do you get 15 times? Are you just trolling?
- 70 million is 95% of 74 million, you have 234,000 hospitalized and 1.8% of hospitalized are 4,212.
- 4,212 / 74 million x 100 = 0.0057%
- 4,212 / 70 million x 100 = 0.0060%
How the fuck is that a 15x difference? If I rounded to the thousandths, they would be the same number but in your math world, there's a 15x difference?
Amount by which you overestimated, if 5% did not get covid during the observation period: 4 million
Hospitalised subgroup: 234k
234k x 15 = 3.5 million.
YOUR POOL is not 4,212 because ACCORDING TO YOUR STUDY, 1.8% of adolescents WITH SEVERE COVID (in the ICU or MIS-C) got arrhythmia. Thus, it's not 1.8% of 234,000. It's 1.8% of some unknown number that is much smaller 234,000 and the 1.8% of that unknown number is much smaller than 4,212.
Right, so your issue isn't really with the 1.8 figure, it's with the fact we don't know the relative sizes of the hospitalised subgroup and the 'severe covid' subgroup. To be fair, you're right that the latter is gonna be smaller.
I've tried to dig up the numbers-- I can see the 'severe covid' cohort for the study was 3600, pulled from a covid registry that covered 63 hospitals over <2 years. But I can't find the total size of that registry. So, we might be at a dead end there.
But let me ask, how much does this matter? Tachyarrhythmia is
one of the complications. Fundamentally, you're arguing that the risks--
all the risks-- posed by Covid to otherwise-healthy adolescents is outweighed by the 0.0005% greater risk of mild myocarditis posed by the vaccine.
So here's another way of looking at that question. 0.0005% of 74 million is 370. Which means if
every single adolescent got that specific vaccine, that's how many would be estimated to suffer mild myocarditis that wouldn't have otherwise had it. 370.
...The cohort for severe, acute Covid in that study was 3600. From just 63 hospitals. Of the 6000 hospitals in the United States. And it
already drastically outweighs the number you're worried about.
In short: there is literally no way the risk from the vaccine can possibly even approach the risk of severe, acute covid, even for adolescents.
Your study literally confirms what I said...
Absolutely nowhere in that study does it say immunity never wanes.