Is on the Gin
- May 26, 2020
Except you're forgetting one thing. This is based on 1 years stats. (which is the gun violence numbers) thus using said numbers means a place could go 5 years with no incident and the 1 year it happened suddenly it's gone from a super safe place to live to one of the most dangerous.Maths 2
Okay, at least you got the maths mostly right here. The problem is that the example does not match the situation.
So the more burglaries there are, the chance of being burgled correspondingly increases, yes. But what you're omitting is the comparison with the other region, which has fewer burlgaries but a higher burglary:house ratio. In your "two-ticket" example, the burglar to house ratio is 2:5. So let's imagine another region with one burglary and two houses: the probability of being burgled is 50%, compared to 36% when there are two burglars and five houses. So you're better off in the lower burglaries per capita area than the lower absolute number of burglaries area.
This is why and how stats are easily misleading.