German Election

[Satinavian]

Excellent analysis but at the same time Russia having less and less to lose makes it more dangerous. I think you underestimate the strategic implioations of Nord Stream 2. If Germany is willing to sacrifice Ukraine to secure their Nord Stream 2 gas supply(as they would no longer need the country for transit making the country as dependent on Russian gas, with corresponding leverage, as Belarus) then that will be a huge boon to Putin. Like everytime he's prodding how far he can go and everytime there is very little pushback. Russia might be an economically weak country with a demoralized military but none the less is it seeking out confrontations while the European countries do very little to even marginally increase their military budget. Russia might be weak but it isn't lethargic like much of western Europe. This used to not really be a problem since Europe could always rely on the U.S. for their security but this era has ended. Meanwhile Putin is ordering massive placements of troops among the Russian/Ukrainian border and the European countries still just kinda stand and watch. If Ukraine falls then E.U. countries like the baltics and Poland will start shitting bricks.

The Ukraine has stopped the transit before for political reasons (or rather they rerouted it and lied about it). Germany was pretty pissed about this and that is one of the main reasons that Nordstream II was initiated.

Germany explicitely prefer depending only on Russia for continued gas supply instead of depending on Russia, Ukraine, Poland and the Baltics. Yes, NordSream 2 will weaken the Ukraine. But it won't strengthen Russia, it will strengthen central Europe instead. Not actually that much since after that event with the Ukraine Germany invested in huge gas storage and can take being cut off again for quite some time.

As for Russia using NordStream to pressure the Ukraine, Germany has already stated that they are perfectly happy to reroute some of the Nordstream gas back to the Ukraine should it be necessary and shouldn't they like what Russia does. So that is a non-issue.

Also the transit costs are a bit high.

As for potential military conflict : Aside from nukes there is little to actually fear for the EU, they are far more powerful than Russia. At least collectively which is why undermining the NATO alliance would be the only real threat. Even if they don't even need the US.


On Topic, i thing CDU+Greens is the most likely coalition. But which of them gets more votes will decide who is chancellor and it will probably get close here. While CDU is traditionally way stronger, the Greens have more topics people are interested in now and by far the more likable candidate. It also didn't help that CDU only chose their candidate after some really nasty infighting while the Greens managed to just agree on one without any fuss.

Greens+SPD+Linke is possible, but less likely.

I don't see CDU+Greens+FDP happeneing. They tried that last time but couldn't agree on a gouvernment strategy. And by now thay have grown even further apart.

 

[Godzillarich(aka tf2godz)]

Its curious to see the Greens do so very well in Germany while the left has been collapsing pretty much everywhere else in Europe. Everywhere the left is in crisis but in Germany they might take the reigns of governance of Europe's strongest power. Its a much needed confidence boost for the left.

The extreme right did have a surge of popularity around 2016 but I would argue there have been many recent events that has extremely damage these political groups, especially the covid response, with the capitol raid certainly not helping. We may see a major push back to the far right in these countries in the upcoming elections but only time will tell.

 

[Gergar12]

I am for the SPD, (Fuck Schröder, he got bribed by the Russians, so much for being a progressive when you side with people who poison people for fun)

CDU/CSU they suck, Merkel, axed Germany's military including their air force for no reason, let the Green party run roughshod over her with their anti-nuclear policy(Look at that the Physics major that hates nuclear power), kicked a German-speaking Palestinian girl out of Germany, can't integrate refugees into their country, and get them jobs like the US does.

AFD: They suck, are against the welfare state, and are openly racist, their country will face demographic decline like Russia, and Japan if they got their way.

Green: Their know-nothing nuclear policy is crap hippie science, and woo. They're a bunch of moonbats, in that their batshit insane, and they ignore nuclear power's role in fighting climate change.

De Linke: If they're still around they are against refugees, and are racist.

 

[Hades]

The extreme right did have a surge of popularity around 2016 but I would argue there have been many recent events that has extremely damage these political groups, especially the covid response, with the capitol raid certainly not helping. We may see a major push back to the far right in these countries in the upcoming elections but only time will tell.

We(the Dutch) actually had our election this year and it didn't come to pass that covid would be bad for the extreme right. Far from it actually.

Our extreme right party actually collapsed in December due to an internal revolt over their policy of coddling neo Nazis. The party then took the most insane corona policies imaginable which actually saved them. By combining the votes of the insane conspiracy theorists and people so exhausted by the lockdown they'd support everyone that promised to remove it the extreme right quadrupled in numbers. Somewhat tragically Geert Wilders for once did the right thing and took Covid seriously, only to get punished for it.

Insane corona standpoints are toxic when a party is in power, but when a party in the opposition starts embracing the insanity they might gain a lot of votes from it.

 

[stroopwafel]

As for Russia using NordStream to pressure the Ukraine, Germany has already stated that they are perfectly happy to reroute some of the Nordstream gas back to the Ukraine should it be necessary and shouldn't they like what Russia does. So that is a non-issue.

The way Merkel dropped Navalny like a hot potato makes me doubt that very much. When push comes to shove the E.U. rarely put their words into action. This combined with Europe itself being divided in terms of foreign policy and the dissolution of the post-WW2 world order with the U.S. retreating from multilateral organizations and having their strategic focus on China creates the context in which a comparitive weak resurgent country like Russia is able to detach an E.U. associate from it's sphere of influence. I think the implications of that will be severe and a blow to Nato which already have lost much of it's authority. And that is ultimately Putin's intent. If the E.U. with Germany as the most powerful country(France had it's orientation always more on the south and Africa) don't draw a red line than Putin like a big bully will continue to push how far he can go. Granted much of this is for domestic consumption to compensate for declining approval rates but regardless there is a clear agenda of subversion that started since the confiscation of Crimea in 2014. Orban might be an outlier in the E.U. but none the less Putin have already won over Hungary as well.

 

[Agema]

The way Merkel dropped Navalny like a hot potato makes me doubt that very much. When push comes to shove the E.U. rarely put their words into action. This combined with Europe itself being divided in terms of foreign policy and the dissolution of the post-WW2 world order with the U.S. retreating from multilateral organizations and having their strategic focus on China creates the context in which a comparitive weak resurgent country like Russia is able to detach an E.U. associate from it's sphere of influence. I think the implications of that will be severe and a blow to Nato which already have lost much of it's authority. And that is ultimately Putin's intent. If the E.U. with Germany as the most powerful country(France had it's orientation always more on the south and Africa) don't draw a red line than Putin like a big bully will continue to push how far he can go. Granted much of this is for domestic consumption to compensate for declining approval rates but regardless there is a clear agenda of subversion that started since the confiscation of Crimea in 2014. Orban might be an outlier in the E.U. but none the less Putin have already won over Hungary as well.

If one thing disappoints me about the EU, it's the shit they've allowed Fidesz, and to a lesser extent PiS in Poland, to pull. Those guys need their EU grants and voting rights seriously threatened, if not cut - albeit for breaching democratic principles of governance.

Although it's only really Hungary that has been tempted by Russia. All of the states bordering Russia are the states least susceptible to Russian blandishments. I certainly think the EU needs to be incredibly cautious about Serbian entry to the EU, because Serbia will be a weeping sore in terms of letting Russian influence straight into the EU. You just imagine how an unusually Russian-friendly state could be used to fuck with the EU whilst veto rights exist on much EU business. Poland should know: in the 1600s its parliament granted a veto, thereby paralysing the country and leading to Poland's total ineffectuality and its eventual destruction.

Orban thinks the EU should be militarily tough on Russia but drop all the sanctions. It's not hard to see this is garbage. If a country (or bloc in the case of the EU) does not intend to actually fight a war, being militarily tough means precisely sod all. What are we supposed to do - cover the Baltic States with garrisons? What's that going to show Russia? Is that going to stop it aggressively hacking our institutions, funding disinformation and so on? There's always a certain type of person who gets a hard-on at the thought of lots of troops, discipline, military hardware and thinks war is super glorious and an opportunity to show off how manly they are. And let's face it, they are overwhelmingly the more extreme end of conservatism, like Orban.

The EU could do a lot worse than develop its own electronic warfare departments, and we can see how much Russia and China like it when we determinedly fuck with their systems. I'm sure the West as a whole already does to some extent, but...

 

[Satinavian]

Election is over.

Results

 

[Chimpzy]

Election is over.

Results

Seems the centre-right is overall the loser in this election, and the Greens the winner. I'm also assuming that since CDU/CSU and SPD no longer have enough combined seats in the Bundestag for a majority, that a third party would need to enter the coalition, likely the Greens. Maybe FDP, but I'm guessing that much like here, the liberals are not overly keen on working with the social democrats. Perhaps a more wildcard tripartite of CDU/CSU, FDP and Greens could also work.

Just spitballing tho, I'm not familiar enough with these parties, even tho I really should be more so, what with Germany being our neighbors and a major economic/political presence and all.

 

[Satinavian]

Both CDU/CSU and SPD are pretty fed up with the grand coalition. They have basically already enacted any shared policy a long time ago and everything that is left and important to their voters is the stuff they don't agree on. Both would prefer gouverning with FDP and Greens. But that is not easy either. Especially FDP has ideas and desires that only work with the CDU alone.

It will be difficult to find a gouverning coalition. A pity it is not enough for SPD+Linke+Greens. Those actually had enough overlap in their programs.

 

[Chimpzy]

It will be difficult to find a gouverning coalition. A pity it is not enough for SPD+Linke+Greens. Those actually had enough overlap in their programs.

Well, I'm Belgian, we know all about long and difficult formations. Our current federal governing coalition took over a year and a half to stumble into being. They've called it the Vivaldi Coalition, after Vivaldi's Quattro Stagioni because all colors are represented. It's been barely functional, but that's pretty much been the norm in this millenium. Country keeps trucking along regardless anyway, since most of the actual day to day is handled by the local govs. Second time that's happened in 3 elections btw. Also putting us in 1st en 2nd place for longest time without a democratically elected national government.

So, you know, take heart in knowing it can be worse. And if not, you can have a go at our record.

Also, no one ask me to explain how we got to the above situation. I still have things I want to do this year.

 

[Agema]

Seems the centre-right is overall the loser in this election, and the Greens the winner.

Maybe. It got the biggest gains, but the SPD is probably the moral as well as actual winner in the sense it's both managed to stabilise and recover from its post-2000 freefall, and held back the Greens to remain the primary party of the left (as it was in danger of being eclipsed).

I've got to say, its recovery surprised me quite a lot.

 

[Hades]

This is a nice confidence boost for the left. In the west the left has been mostly swept off the board completely. Almost all traditional left wing parties are in deep decline and often don't even factor into the race for national leadership. But now a left wing party not only won an election again, but also won an election in the dominant European country.

 

[09philj]

Going to be difficult to build a coalition since the FDP would rather work with the CDU/CSU and the Greens would rather work with the SPD but there's no likely coalition that doesn't involve both parties.

This is a nice confidence boost for the left. In the west the left has been mostly swept off the board completely. Almost all traditional left wing parties are in deep decline and often don't even factor into the race for national leadership. But now a left wing party not only won an election again, but also won an election in the dominant European country.

The phenomenon of traditional centre left parties losing ground in recent years is known as Pasokification after the ill fated Greek party PASOK. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pasokification

It should be noted that Pasokification often involves centre left parties losing ground to the far left as well as the right, and the SPD have also reversed this as Die Linke have lost a considerable number of seats.

 

[Silvanus]

This is a nice confidence boost for the left. In the west the left has been mostly swept off the board completely. Almost all traditional left wing parties are in deep decline and often don't even factor into the race for national leadership. But now a left wing party not only won an election again, but also won an election in the dominant European country.

Well, it follows the Norwegian parliamentary election, in which the centre-left convincingly won and will be forming the next government. Centre-left parties rule in Finland, Sweden, Spain and Portugal, and polls show they're likely to win the next Swedish election as well.

The centre-left is in significant decline in France, the UK, Austria & Hungary. But those (particularly the first two) tend to attract an outsized amount of coverage.

 

[PsychedelicDiamond]

This is a nice confidence boost for the left. In the west the left has been mostly swept off the board completely. Almost all traditional left wing parties are in deep decline and often don't even factor into the race for national leadership. But now a left wing party not only won an election again, but also won an election in the dominant European country.

The SPD are not really a left wing party these days. They sit almost exactly at the center and have done so for a long time.

Other than that... well, it's an election that didn't bring many surprises, positively or negatively. I've lost a lot of good will for this country after those hyenas from the AfD entered out parliament following the last election. This one... well, I reckon it presents a very gradual shift towards the center after having drifted way to the right over the course of the Merkel era. I don't expect any major course corrections from whatever government will emerge from this. I voted for a party that's not represented in parliament and probably never will be, out of principle more than out of any genuine hope.

Kind of wild to think that Merkel is gonna retire. Not that I like her very much, but it's like she's always been chancellor. I mean, I remember "Chancellor Schröder" and even "Chancellor Kohl" being words I've heard people in the media say in that order when I was a kid, but for practically as long as I'm old enough to know what a "chancellor" even is, that title has been associated with Angela Merkel.

 

[Agema]

Other than that... well, it's an election that didn't bring many surprises, positively or negatively. I've lost a lot of good will for this country after those hyenas from the AfD entered out parliament following the last election. This one... well, I reckon it presents a very gradual shift towards the center after having drifted way to the right over the course of the Merkel era. I don't expect any major course corrections from whatever government will emerge from this. I voted for a party that's not represented in parliament and probably never will be, out of principle more than out of any genuine hope.

Maybe. But my perception is that the CDU under Merkel mostly held the line against the AfD, where countless other right wing parties (such as the UK Conservatives) instead adopted some of tone and rhetoric of th further right.

 

[Silvanus]

The SPD intend to go into coalition with the Greens and the FDP.

Germany: SPD intends to form coalition with Greens and liberals

Centre-left contender to replace Angela Merkel announces plan for ‘social-ecological-liberal’ alliance

www.theguardian.com

Seems about the most sensible thing for them to do.