Melting Glaciers Yielding Ancient Viruses

hanselthecaretaker

My flask is half full
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Oh Yay Oy Vey -


Can’t wait to see what escapes from a lab next!
 

XsjadoBlayde

~it ends here~
Apr 29, 2020
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Alternatively, we could all keep taking heroin till the problem sorts itself out.

There doesn't seem to be a lot of positives to melting away our pesky permafrost these days, does there? Spose the old immune system could do with a fresh challenge though.
 

hanselthecaretaker

My flask is half full
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Alternatively, we could all keep taking heroin till the problem sorts itself out.

There doesn't seem to be a lot of positives to melting away our pesky permafrost these days, does there? Spose the old immune system could do with a fresh challenge though.
I guess COVID was just a warm up (no pun).
 
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Agema

You have no authority here, Jackie Weaver
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I'd like to think a 15,000 year old virus would be pretty much useless. Things have moved on, and the creatures that it used to infect have mutated sufficiently that it would lack a suitable host.
 

Baffle

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Woo, and indeed hoo.

I'd like to think a 15,000 year old virus would be pretty much useless. Things have moved on, and the creatures that it used to infect have mutated sufficiently that it would lack a suitable host.
Does that not suggest that lack of modern exposure means we're also more likely to be susceptible though? I dunno, I'm not a doctor. Not even a wizard.
 

Gergar12

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US baby boomers are the most selfish generation and US evangelicals are the most tribalist, brain-dead jackasses.

I also think they are all liars. George W Bush who both groups elected said we would find a replacement for Kyoto, where was it during his term? The answer is he's a liar.
Trump says he loves clean air, and clean water, you call charcoal air clean??? Obama let the Paris Accords be non-binding to appease coal-burning and oil-producing countries in the Global South, and 2nd world, and a few of his "allies" like Saudi Arabia.

None of the elite(world leaders, and business leaders) who caused this will burn, yet millions of people with no power will.

Edit: Just watched this video, the problems are political problems, and the companies that bribe, and lie to our politicians who then lie to their people are the problem.
 
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tippy2k2

Beloved Tyrant
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We got some boring old virus the first go around. Maybe this one will finally give us zombies!
 

happyninja42

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Woo, and indeed hoo.



Does that not suggest that lack of modern exposure means we're also more likely to be susceptible though? I dunno, I'm not a doctor. Not even a wizard.
Well not every virus/pathogen/etc is universally transmittable. So the fact that they are 15000 years old, doesn't mean it was ever capable of actually transferring to humans. For example, if all it is, is some virus that...I dunno, effects mice, well, as @Agema pointed out, the hosts have likely evolved significantly enough, that the virus won't be able to find a viable host.

I mean it's certainly within the realm of possibility that we could be at risk. It might find purchase, in either us, or some other animal, and spread like wildfire, and cause upheaval in the ecosystem. But, like with every virus, communicability, and mortality rates of the virus, are important factors. For all we know, it just gives mice a bad case of the shits for a few days, and then their fine.
 

Baffle

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Well not every virus/pathogen/etc is universally transmittable. So the fact that they are 15000 years old, doesn't mean it was ever capable of actually transferring to humans. For example, if all it is, is some virus that...I dunno, effects mice, well, as @Agema pointed out, the hosts have likely evolved significantly enough, that the virus won't be able to find a viable host.
Realistically, how much has evolved in 15,000 years? That's not really a long time. More so, the virus (if it was inert in the ice) wouldn't have been exerting any evolutionary pressure, so there wouldn't be any selection for resistance to it.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not actually worried about this, more interested in the idea of the repercussions of something that's so old it's effectively new being introduced to the environment. What if, for example, it's a virus than infects flora rather than fauna? That could be proper bad, depending on the crop.
 

happyninja42

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Realistically, how much has evolved in 15,000 years? That's not really a long time. More so, the virus (if it was inert in the ice) wouldn't have been exerting any evolutionary pressure, so there wouldn't be any selection for resistance to it.
Depends on the animal in question. For animals that have a short life cycle, 15,000 years can have significant time for alterations. And we don't need it to be evolutionary changes like "the mice have laser eyes now" just things like "this one enzyme, or chromosome in their DNA, has mutated slightly" or "this particular cell wall, where the virus would attach and spread, is no longer as viable for the virus to catch hold, and take over a cell."

But, I mean humans have had some noticeable evolutionary changes in our lives. There is a pocket of islanders, who have apparently evolved to have unusually large livers, compared to humans elsewhere. Apparently, they subsist on deep diving for a portion of their diet, and having a larger liver, helps them retain oxygen longer, and I think also resist deep dive pressures more easily? Also, things like sickle-cell anemia is an evolutionary change in humans, making them more resistant to malaria, but has the downside of making them also be anemic. Lots of little things like that. And that's just us.
 

Baffle

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But, I mean humans have had some noticeable evolutionary changes in our lives. There is a pocket of islanders, who have apparently evolved to have unusually large livers, compared to humans elsewhere. Apparently, they subsist on deep diving for a portion of their diet, and having a larger liver, helps them retain oxygen longer, and I think also resist deep dive pressures more easily? Also, things like sickle-cell anemia is an evolutionary change in humans, making them more resistant to malaria, but has the downside of making them also be anemic. Lots of little things like that. And that's just us.
It's not something I know a huge amount about, but I think for humans you're talking hundreds of thousands of years rather than tens (obviously we've got bigger and such in recent times, but that's diet rather than evolution). Malaria is, I assume, a very strong selection pressure given the repercussions of not being malaria-resistant in areas where it's endemic.
 

CriticalGaming

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Oh Yay Oy Vey -


Can’t wait to see what escapes from a lab next!
Can we literally just not go fucking with this stuff please?
 

happyninja42

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It's not something I know a huge amount about, but I think for humans you're talking hundreds of thousands of years rather than tens (obviously we've got bigger and such in recent times, but that's diet rather than evolution). Malaria is, I assume, a very strong selection pressure given the repercussions of not being malaria-resistant in areas where it's endemic.
Yes malaria is a strong selection pressure in areas where it is endemic. Mostly in Africa, and it's been reduced to smaller regions within that continent. But, the result of that, is that a significant portion of the black community, is now much more likely to have that particular anemia, compared to other ethnicities. Which outside of malaria plagued areas, is a detriment, but it's still technically a variance in human biology. But again, the process is a very slow thing, that makes tiny changes. It's always happening, but you can only see noticeable changes, on the long scale. But on the shorter scale, internally, any number of changes could've happened that would make the Ice Virus irrelevant. Perhaps it's similar enough to several other strains of virus, that we HAVE adapted to, and thus it doesn't have a good chance of spreading. Maybe it only impacts a certain type of function that isn't really a problem anymore, that we can easily address with medication or whatever.

I mean most viruses aren't instant killers to everything they come into contact with. They would be wiped out if all of them are that lethal.

It's still something we should be aware of, and keep an eye on. I'm not saying disregard this development, far from it. But I also don't think we should be railing about the doom of the planet from ancient ice viruses either.
 

Baffle

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It's still something we should be aware of, and keep an eye on. I'm not saying disregard this development, far from it. But I also don't think we should be railing about the doom of the planet from ancient ice viruses either.
Ah, I don't think it'll be ancient viruses that end us -- I think the melting permafrost is a good idea of what's likely to end us!
 

Ender910

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This was literally a plot point in The Beast from 20,000 Fathoms. We're so fucked.
As well as the X-Files, Stargate SG1, and the Outer Limits. And probably a few hundred more examples in science fiction.(Though technically, in one or two of those examples they may have been other parasitic organisms discovered in the ice, not viruses).

Does that not suggest that lack of modern exposure means we're also more likely to be susceptible though? I dunno, I'm not a doctor. Not even a wizard.
I'm neither myself, but I'd wager it's likely to be something of a non-issue since viruses already have insanely high mutation rates. So unless it was a really special kind of new... family of virus, it's probably not going to yield especially unique properties compared to what might mutate from virus strains we're already familiar with. Which isn't to say that it can't be dangerous, but I'm guessing it would have the same chances as most equivalent modern day viruses. Devil's in the details though, and I'm just taking a guess here.

Might be concerning if it was a variant of smallpox that was somehow immune to the standard vaccines though.
 
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