Michael Pachter Predicts Next-Gen Console Prices

Andy Chalk

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Nov 12, 2002
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Michael Pachter Predicts Next-Gen Console Prices


Industry analyst Michael Pachter believes the Xbox One will launch at $399 while the PlayStation 4 will actually come out of the gate even cheaper.

Michael Pachter, everyone's favorite outspoken videogame industry analyst, made his opinions regarding next-gen console pricing known to the world today by way of a pre-E3 note to investors in which he said he believes that the PlayStation 4 will debut in the U.S. at $349, while the Xbox One will carry a release price of $399. His figures are based on the material cost of the consoles, which he placed at $275 for the PS4 and $325 for the Xbox One.

Even if the Xbox does launch at a higher price, however, Pachter said it is more likely to be subsidized through contract subscriptions with ISPs or cable providers. "We believe the ability to watch live TV from a cable, telco, or satellite set-top box through Xbox One could entice an MSO to drive subscriptions through a subsidized box in exchange for a multi-year contract," Pachter wrote. "The 'always connected' requirement for the Xbox One likely means that a broadband connection will be required, suggesting to us that ISPs may have an incentive to offer a subsidy as well."

He also noted that Microsoft could directly offset the consumer cost of the Xbox One with Xbox Live Gold subscription agreements or premium Skype functionality; Sony could do the same thing with PlayStation Network subscriptions, he added, but unlike Microsoft, which has previously offered subsidized deals on the Xbox 360 with Xbox Live subscriptions, it has no history of doing so.

Pachter also predicted, not surprisingly, that the Xbox 360, PlayStation 3 and Wii will soon undergo another round of price cuts, and that if the Wii U doesn't get it into gear soon it "could be relegated to a first-party-only platform."

Source: GamesIndustry [http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2013-06-03-pachter-playstation-4-to-sell-for-USD349-xbox-one-USD399]



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Alfador_VII

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Nov 2, 2009
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Ah Pachter again. I wouldn't trust him to predict the sun was going to come up tomorrow.

Seriously, why do people keep listening to (and paying) him? He's so rarely even close to right.
 

Random Argument Man

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May 21, 2008
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If the live TV thing happens with subscriptions with ISPs or cable providers, I suspect that it won't work in Canada. ***** Bell and Rogers! You money grubbing **********!
 

BrotherRool

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If those were the prices I'd buy a new console in a snap. Anything under §500 would be a great price
 

Doom972

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Dec 25, 2008
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Alfador_VII said:
Ah Pachter again. I wouldn't trust him to predict the sun was going to come up tomorrow.

Seriously, why do people keep listening to (and paying) him? He's so rarely even close to right.
My guess is that it's because, while not as good as we would expect from an expert, he might be the best available.
 

kailus13

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Mar 3, 2013
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"We believe the ability to watch live TV from a cable, telco, or satellite set-top box through Xbox One could entice an MSO to drive subscriptions through a subsidized box in exchange for a multi-year contract,"

I have absolutely no clue what that means. What's an MSO?

Every prediction Michael Pachter seems to make turns out to be wrong. How does he still have a job?
 

Andy Shandy

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Jun 7, 2010
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So £229 for the PS4 and £261.62 for the Xbox One, both of which were lower than some of the Wii U prices on release?

Of course, I know it doesn't exchange exactly, but something seems off about that for consoles that are supposedly meant to be more powerful than the Wii U

Then again, it is Pachter who probably just reads whatever he sees in his alphabet soup and goes from there.

I wouldn't complain if those were the prices, but somehow I don't see it happening.
 

MisterColeman

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Mar 19, 2009
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Those material costs can't be right. Consoles have always sold at a loss initially. Has technology really fallen in price by that much?

If those are the correct prices for materials, and they use history to try and charge much more... I don't even know. I've never bought before the 1st price drop, I'm in no hurry.
 

Jandau

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Dec 19, 2008
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At this point Pachter is like that octopus that predicts the winners of football tournaments (actual football, not that thing you yanks call "football"), only less accurate...
 

Zackmeister

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Oct 26, 2009
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"The 'always connected' requirement for the Xbox One likely means that a broadband connection will be required, suggesting to us that ISPs may have an incentive to offer a subsidy as well."

The 'always connected' requirement needs a connection, does it? Better alert the town crier!
 

PoolCleaningRobot

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Maybe I'm wrong but would this be the first time in a while the new consoles are not sold at a loss? I wouldn't be surprised if the new consoles didn't end up costing that much given the parts in them. Except for XB1 that this, which comes with a kinect that can see in the dark. I would also assume that Sony has a lot of incentive to make the ps4 a lot cheaper given the $600 price tag of the original nearly put them out of business

BrotherRool said:
If those were the prices I'd buy a new console in a snap. Anything under §500 would be a great price
Hell yes. If the ps4 comes out under $400 I'd buy it quick

Andy Shandy said:
So £229 for the PS4 and £261.62 for the Xbox One, both of which were lower than some of the Wii U prices on release?

Of course, I know it doesn't exchange exactly, but something seems off about that for consoles that are supposedly meant to be more powerful than the Wii U
Doesn't the touch screen controller for the Wii U cost $200 alone? But I also wonder how much the ps4's GDDR5 ram will cost. But the ps4 and XB1 are also using AMD mobile processors which are probably cheap
 

CriticalMiss

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Nowhere Man said:
What the heck does MSO mean? Is that the stuff you used to find in Chinese food?
MSO is a thick paste made from fermented soybeans and barley or rice malt; used in Japanese cooking to make soups or sauces. Maybe he was hungry when he wrote this?

I'm suprised that the material costs are so much lower than the prices, although maybe the manufacturing and distribution are horrendously expensive and the consoles will still be sold at a loss. Maybe he's just shit?

My prediction? The Xbone will cost money, the PS4 will also cost money. This analyst thing is pretty easy.
 

Terramax

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Jan 11, 2008
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Would be awesome if the PS3 gets another price cut here in Japan. I'm holding off getting one until it goes seriously cheap 2nd hand.