Nagorno-Karabakh

[Silvanus]

Forumites may have seen that the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh reignited again this month. For context, it is a fully-enclosed region of Azerbaijan, with a population of ~200,000 (~75% Armenian, ~20% Azerbaijani). Although internationally recognised as Azerbaijan's territory since the fall of the Soviet Union, it has been controlled by a self-declared Republic ("Artsakh") with backing from Armenia since 1994.

There have been two wars between Artsakh with Armenian backing and Azerbaijan-- sometimes with Turkish backing-- during this time. Then this month, Azerbaijan launched a renewed assault, and after a significant defeat for the separatists a few days ago, it looks like Nagorno-Karabakh is highly likely to be fully integrated into Azerbaijan.

Armenia and the Artsakh separatists have launched a huge refugee programme, to move ethnic Armenians into Armenia, and claim up to 120,000 will move. They believe ethnic cleansing and repression will follow Azerbaijan's victory. Azerbaijan swears local rights will be respected, but the current government has a long track record of repression.

Nagorno-Karabakh's Armenians start to leave en masse for Armenia

The Nagorno-Karabakh leadership said the region's 120,000 Armenians did not want to live as part of Azerbaijan for fear of persecution and ethnic cleansing. Those with fuel started to drive down the Lachin corridor.

www.reuters.com

 

[Bedinsis]

For the record, according to Freedom house's scale of freedom, Armenia gets not-really-free-but-we're-trying 54/100, while Azerbaijan gets a pathetic 9/100.

Spoiler: Do laws, policies, and practices guarantee equal treatment of various segments of the population in Azerbaijan?

0/4

Members of ethnic minority groups have complained of discrimination in areas including education, employment, and housing. Women are subject to discrimination in employment, including both de facto bias and formal exclusion from certain types of work under the labor code.

While IDPs from the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict that ended in 1994 are entitled to special assistance, they face severe infringements on their economic and social rights and freedom of movement. Many are housed in dormitories or substandard housing and are unable to change their place of residence, which is often located out of range of sources of employment or adequate medical care.

 

[Gergar12]

Armenians should learn how to fight in the 21st century.

 

[XsjadoBlaydette]

Robert sits down with Joe Kassabian to discuss the invasion of Artsakh by Azerbaijan, and what might be the start of a new Armenian genocide.

 

[Ag3ma]

Armenians should learn how to fight in the 21st century.

Yes, but Armenia has been militarily dependent on Russia: and we all know where Russia's at militarily. It's also a lot smaller than Azerbaijan, and lacks the same squillions in oil revenues.

 

[Gergar12]

Yes, but Armenia has been militarily dependent on Russia: and we all know where Russia's at militarily. It's also a lot smaller than Azerbaijan, and lacks the same squillions in oil revenues.

Buy drones, make your own drones. Don’t just sit there and take it. Ask for US assistance. Etc.

 

[Silvanus]

Buy drones, make your own drones. Don’t just sit there and take it. Ask for US assistance. Etc.

Nagorno-Karabakh is entirely enclosed within Azerbaijan's territory; it has no other borders, and has also been blockaded for the majority of the last year. It was unfeasible for much foreign assistance to make it into the enclave.

---

About 3,000 refugees have passed into Armenia so far, according to the gov. Its only been one day since the reopening of the refugee corridor.

 

[Ag3ma]

Buy drones, make your own drones. Don’t just sit there and take it. Ask for US assistance. Etc.

1. Armenia is a tiny state of ~3 million people: it's not the stuff of a healthy drone industry.
2. It's got a reasonable economy (at least by regional standards), but lacks Azerbaijan's vast oil revenues to pad heavy expenditure on imports. Plus, Azerbaijan appears to have had very healthy support from Turkey in terms of drones.
3. Countries in that region who deviate from Russian alignment meet an unhappy end, e.g. Georgia. Even Ukraine, right next to the EU, was not permitted to. There is no asking the USA for assistance - well, there might be now Russia's got its hands full, but Armenia needed to start years ago.

 

[CM156]

This is just a horrible situation all around, and it seems the most practical situation is helping with the evacuation of refugees.

 

[Bedinsis]

A genocide scholar has spoken up: "It is an ongoing genocide"

Genocide Scholar: ”It is an ongoing genocide”

In an exclusive interview for Blankspot, genocide researcher Melanie O’Brien explains why the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh can be considered an ongoing genocide.

blankspot.se

The country of Azerbaijan has been arresting anti-war-activists

Arrests of anti-war activists continue in Azerbaijan

Amidst the offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan continues to arrest Azerbaijani anti-war activists. ”Invite us to break the regime’s monopoly on the peace process,” says one …

blankspot.se

The leaders of Azerbaijan regularly partake in Armenophobic, dehumanizing rhetoric (in an article sadly not available in English but translation software exists):

Krönika: Hatet mot armenier har inget slut

Efter Azerbajdzjans offensiv mot Nagorno-Karabach är det många som räds ett folkmord. Rasmus Canbäck skriver om den systematiska avhumaniseringen av armenier i Azerbajdzjan.

blankspot.se

 

[Bedinsis]

The local leadership announces that the republic of Nagorno-Karabakh will cease to be January 1st. (still in Swedish, still translation software exists)

Efter kriget: Nagorno-Karabach upphör att existera som stat

Republiken Artsach, Nagorno-Karabach, upphör existera som självstyrande stat. Beskedet kommer efter ett presidentdekret.

blankspot.se

 

[Silvanus]

According to the Armenian authorities receiving the refugees, 65,000 ethnic Armenians have fled Nagorno-Karabakh so far. That's over half of the total pre-war Armenian population of the enclave (120,000), and somewhere in the region of ~40% of the total population of the area IIRC.

 

[Silvanus]

Almost all ethnic Armenians have left Nagorno-Karabakh

Armenian government says 100,000 people have fled since Azerbaijan took control of breakaway region

www.theguardian.com

Up to 100,400. By a wide margin the majority of the population-- somewhere between 66% and 80% from varying estimates I've seen.

Looks like there's little-to-no faith that Azerbaijan will be true to its promise to reintegrate the region without brutality or repression.

 

[Gergar12]

I have no dog in this fight. I watch YouTubers on both sides. But if I were Armenia, I would start being really creative. The Russians are busy and don't like the successful pro-democracy movement there. Iran which borders them won't help them most likely due to Turkey.

And the US insists on Armenia leaving Nagorno Karabakh. I would start digging trenches, and smuggling DJI drones from China.

 

[Ag3ma]

I have no dog in this fight. I watch YouTubers on both sides. But if I were Armenia, I would start being really creative. The Russians are busy and don't like the successful pro-democracy movement there. Iran which borders them won't help them most likely due to Turkey.

And the US insists on Armenia leaving Nagorno Karabakh. I would start digging trenches, and smuggling DJI drones from China.

I am doubtful that Azerbaijan is going to stop at recovering its territory. Armenia needs to be extremely concerned about Azerbaijan deciding that southern Armenia should be its territory too (thus linking its two separated territories).Turkey is on the side of Azerbaijan, and currently no-one at all is looking out for Armenia because Russia is impotent.

Looks like there's little-to-no faith that Azerbaijan will be true to its promise to reintegrate the region without brutality or repression.

And they are absolutely right to have no faith in Azeri promises. The rhetoric in Azeri media is very hostile.

 

[Hawki]

How Armenia and Azerbaijan’s conflict could still destabilize the region

The latest struggle over Nagorno-Karabakh, a majority-Armenian enclave in Azerbaijan, will ripple throughout the region.

www.vox.com

 

[Bedinsis]

The story of a betrayal: Why Russia acquiesced in the ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabakh

On November 17, the International Court of Justice at the United Nations implemented temporary measures against Azerbaijan. These measures underscored the rights of Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh—to return home without obstruction and to be free from the threat of violence. Simultaneously, the...

theins.ru

 

[Seanchaidh]

Yes, but Armenia has been militarily dependent on Russia: and we all know where Russia's at militarily.

do we actually, though?