New Documentary - Tracking Down the Origin of Wuhan Coronavirus

Houseman

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Down here we have bats that live under bridges and people regularly gather to watch them fly out in the summer.
Austin? I've been there, and waited for that to happen. Sadly, it didn't.

But yeah, good point about the cooking part.
 

SupahEwok

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I'm not saying don't do science and go through the scientific method (especially on the drug treatments) but you can dig up the information out there and come to informed conclusions. If the WHO went with the super extremely likely near 100% confirmed fact that the virus was going person-to-person, maybe other countries would've taken better steps like Taiwan did and wouldn't have had to resort to lockdowns to control the spread. It's not like Taiwan just "guessed right" and got lucky on something that was like 50% or even 80% likely. It's not like the virus is oddly unique in any way that would cause it to behave radically different than anything we've seen before. When something that can happen so quickly and time is of the utmost importance, you have to veer toward where the information is pointing even if you can't be 100% yet.
It is up to countries to make the best decisions to protect themselves. If you could google up all that and come to those conclusions, do you honestly believe the PhDs at the CDC and other national institutions around the world couldn't have done so, and informed their administrations accordingly? You think all those folks whose job it is to evaluate biological risks to their nations just take the WHO's word on everything, and go about their day?

The US made its own judgement call about its preparations, and trying to blame their lacking on the WHO is obvious responsibility shifting. It is the WHO's responsibility to report what they know, not what they guess.
 

Phoenixmgs

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It is up to countries to make the best decisions to protect themselves. If you could google up all that and come to those conclusions, do you honestly believe the PhDs at the CDC and other national institutions around the world couldn't have done so, and informed their administrations accordingly? You think all those folks whose job it is to evaluate biological risks to their nations just take the WHO's word on everything, and go about their day?

The US made its own judgement call about its preparations, and trying to blame their lacking on the WHO is obvious responsibility shifting. It is the WHO's responsibility to report what they know, not what they guess.
I'm totally not trying to insinuate that any country's inadequate response is because of the WHO. The US's response is still a joke, countries over a month ago had better testing the US does now. Isn't the WHO's job, at the bare minimum, to point you in the right direction. Or what's the point of the organization in the first place?
 

Silvanus

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So you agree, where the virus made the first jump doesn't matter at all?
Of course it matters. It matters if the disease originated in a wet market, because provides further evidence that wet markets are in dire need of regulation (or shutting down, as they did following SARS). It directly informs our response in terms of regulation and minimising risk.
 

lil devils x

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Of course it matters. It matters if the disease originated in a wet market, because provides further evidence that wet markets are in dire need of regulation (or shutting down, as they did following SARS). It directly informs our response in terms of regulation and minimising risk.
Those actually researching this do not believe it came from the market by animal, they actually believe it originated elsewhere near Wuhan and only spread at the market via human to human transmission at that point it being a busy population center.
 

Silvanus

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Those actually researching this do not believe it came from the market by animal, they actually believe it originated elsewhere near Wuhan and only spread at the market via human to human transmission at that point it being a busy population center.
Can I see a source on this? Wet markets have a track record for providing the ideal environment for animal-to-human transmission.
 

lil devils x

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Can I see a source on this? Wet markets have a track record for providing the ideal environment for animal-to-human transmission.
Although I already linked some of the data earlier in the thread above, This states it a bit more plainly for the average reader to understand:

"They have created a network analysis using over 1,000 coronavirus genomes. This includes patient infection date and the "type" of virus the person was infected with. There are three typesā€”A, B and C. A is closest to the coronavirus found in bats and is thought to be the original human virus genome. This type was found in Chinese and American individuals, with mutated versions in patients from Australia and the U.S.

However, A was not the virus type found in most cases in Wuhan, the city in China where COVID-19 was first identified. Instead, most people there had type B. Researchers suggest there was a "founder event" for type B in Wuhan. Type C, the "daughter" of type B, is what was identified in early cases in Europe, as well as South Korea, Singapore and Hong Kongā€”but appears absent from mainland China."

"He said it is possible the outbreak did not originate in Wuhan, as until January 17, almost all the isolates were type B. In Guangdong, a province about 500 miles from Wuhan, seven of the 11 isolates were type A. "These case numbers are small because few genomes are available for the early stage of the outbreak, before the Chinese New Year travel pre-January 25 would have started mixing patterns up geographically," Forster said."

"The first known coronavirus case has been traced back to November 17. According to a report in the South China Morning Post, government data shows a 55-year-old from the Hubei province, which Wuhan is the capital of, was the first known case of COVID-19.

It is thought the virus jumped from an animalā€”likely a batā€”into humans at some point. When and where this happened is not known. In December, the first cluster of cases was traced back to a seafood market in Wuhan, leading some to suggest this is where the virus first emerged. But as we learn more about the virus, this version of events appears less likely. A study published in the Lancet showed some of the first people infected with the virus did not have direct contact with the market."
 

Agema

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Can I see a source on this? Wet markets have a track record for providing the ideal environment for animal-to-human transmission.

A Cambridge (UK) geneticist, Peter Forster, has examined the coronavirus strains and identified three main groups (A, B, C).

A and B are evident in the early outbreak in December cases in China; A predominates in samples from Guangdong and B predominates in samples from Wuhan. The interesting thing is that A is closer to original bat coronavirus than B. So either two viruses jumped from bat to human about the same time in two places (unlikely), or that it jumped to humans and subsequently mutated. However, the implication is that A (being closer to bat coronavirus) came before B, and given the preferential geographic distribution of type A in Guangdong, it actually means Guangdong is a more likely origin point.

Strain C, incidentally, is the main one in Europe, a daughter line of B.