Nintendo Misses Profits Forecast By 50 Percent

[medv4380]

snip
people complaining about not enough games still?
I've got:
MH3U
batman arkham city
AC3
nintendo land
super mario bros U
a few of the virtual console games
and MY ENTIRE WII LIBRARY (and soon, the entire virtual console library too)

and people still say that there isn't enough to justify buying it?

Too many of the titles are just Last Gen Ports. Batman Arkhan City, and AC3 and So on. Launch Title like Nintendo Land and New Super Mario Brothers U are ok, but only serve a nitch market. ZombiU is a nice game to have and would have been a console seller, but it's a Horror game and thus is only a nitch market.

Tomb Raider needed to be on it. If the game really is that much of a GPU Nvidia killer I would have liked to see it on the Wii U to see if it could handle it or not. But they didn't get it, and Square somehow made a successful game into a financial failure so I can see why they didn't want to spend more money to put it on the Wii U.

Then there was the gaming drought from January til April. Pikmen 3 and Rayman should have come out in that time period, but they didn't. It wasn't until Lego City and Injustice hit that you could say the drought was actually over. But "over" is relative. There is only a few games coming out over the next few months, and it won't be until the Christmas season that we really see anything big consistently.

As much as some people are painting the Nintendo news as bad news they're wrong. In January analyst forecasts were so dreadful it was unbelievable. Nintendo's forecasts were off because they didn't anticipate the drought to go on for as long as it did. In the end their stock is stable, and up from the January "doomsday" predictions.

Now if only I could make heads or tails of Iwata now being the CEO of Nintendo of America instead of Reggie.

 

[AdamG3691]

Oh my goodness! You're right! How could I possibly overlook a game that EVERY OTHER CONSOLE HAS HAD FOR YEARS.

PS2, PSP, Xbox 360, PS3, even the Wii already has a version of Monster Hunter.
It's not a selling point for the 3DS and WiiU when all of their competition beat them to the punch.

xbox 360 only had frontier and that was never released in the west, and PS3 only had a HD remake of a PSP game, both of which were japan exclusive. and ALL the PSP games (except P3rd, the japan exclusive one) were remakes of the PS2 games (unless you count unite, which was MH2/MHF2 with more stuff).

until the wii, MH was a sony exclusive series, and since tri, it's been a nintendo exclusive.

so yes, it is a selling point, just as if Halo or something were to be released exclusively on the PS4, would your argument still be "well it's not really a selling point when the xbox had the other halo games"?

and considering that the last worldwide MH game not on a nintendo console was 4 years ago (and the last one released in the west was 3 years ago), yes, it's a selling point.


anyway, a few final points about the WiiU in general:

point 1:
remember when the 3DS came out?

everyone was moaning that there were no games and that it would be the end of nintendo.

that prediction sure turned out accurate didn't it?

nintendo has been in the games business longer than any other company, and at this point, they're nigh unkillable, it's better to be permanent than to die proving that you're the best

point 2:

the back catalog of wii games may not seem like much, but remember, the PS4 will NOT be backwards compatible (and we don't yet know about the new xbox), even if it's not a significant selling point to buy a wiiU over a wii "your old stuff still works" IS a selling point for buying a wiiU over a PS4.

point 3:
"all the first party games are just the same as the previous ones"
so? that's what a series is, nobody complains that CoD is just another FPS, and I'd rather have the rehashed but still mechanically different from each other IPs than another 50 FPSes

 

[4RT1LL3RY]

Maybe then we'll buck the trend of them constantly churning out new consoles

I stopped taking you seriously here. What was this console generation again? Oh yeah, excruciatingly long.

You must be a young'n. Don't worry, as time goes on you'll start to appreciate how short a year really is.

Exactly what, I ask you, does a little more graphical and processor power bring to the table? This is not a market crying out for new consoles. This is a market, rather, that is in desperate need of a triple-A industry that isn't on life support and a more diverse selection of top quality new IP.

But no, line up the new gimmicks. Remember how much they banged on about graphics and processor power before? What was the only thing that mattered in the end? If the game played well, had a good story, and brought something fresh. More polygons and a share button and new motion controllers and extra screens won't buy that.

No, but the new hardware is very nice for developers. They can spend less time figuring out how to get the game to run 60fps at 1920x1080. Extra memory is very nice for developers, allowing them to keep more things in memory and make transitions smoother without faking it, like with elevator rides or slow opening doors etc.

The Wii-U uses the same type of hardware as the Wii so developers don't need to adjust much besides the fact they have more things available. The PS4 and new XBOX are moving to x86 based processors, that mean its easier to develop for them without learning a new toolset. Means PC, PS4, and XBOX will be able to have more simultaneous launches. From the Wii to Wii-U the memory increased from 155MB to 2GB. The 360 and PS3 had total system memory of 512MB, there new systems are going to have 8GB. That was the limiting factor for a number of things on both systems as time went on.

The timeline they do console generations hasn't changed much. The NES came out in 1983, the SNES in 1990, N64 in 1996, Gamecube in 2001, Wii in 2006, Wii-U in 2012. PSX came out in 1994, PS2 came out in 2000, PS3 came out in 2006, PS4 will be out in 2013. The Xbox came out 2001, 360 came out in 2005, next Box 2013.

The 360 has been out for 8 years, the PS3 for 7, the Wii was out for 6 years before the Wii-U. This is normally the time when a console generation ends. At least 4 cycles of Moore's Law have passed since these consoles came out, hardware is now 2^4, aka 16, times better for the same price. In this same time resolution for screens has stagnated at 1920x1080. Games should be able to run smoothly at 60fps at that resolution, this hopefully will get rid of excuses about dropping fps to 30 for things like racing games. When you can have a smooth frame rate they can reduce the overdone motion blur while still giving feelings of speed. Going from 30fps to 60fps is a big jump in responsiveness, that is 33.3 ms vs 16.7 ms, and you can notice it in controls.

I look forward to the PS4 and Next XBOX because we should get some new IPs shared between the 2 and PC. Even if its a hostile environment right now due to the economy being crap globally companies won't care.

 

[medv4380]

At least 4 cycles of Moore's Law have passed since these consoles came out, hardware is now 2^4, aka 16, times better for the same price.

This only applies to Processors. Please do not apply it to all hardware. RAM only doubles ever 5 years so we've only been through 1 cycles for that. Network bandwidth follows Nielsen's Law which has it doubling every 21 months.

Ultimately they all fall to Wirth's Law
"software is getting slower more rapidly than hardware becomes faster"

Or better stated Gate's Law
"commercial software generally slows by 50% every 18 months"

 

[EHKOS]

I feel bad for buying my 3DS used now....BUT THEY DIDN'T HAVE ANY NEW MIDNIGHT PURPLES!
At least I bought Luigi's Mansion new....

 

[GenGenners]

Maybe then we'll buck the trend of them constantly churning out new consoles

I stopped taking you seriously here. What was this console generation again? Oh yeah, excruciatingly long.

You must be a young'n. Don't worry, as time goes on you'll start to appreciate how short a year really is.

Exactly what, I ask you, does a little more graphical and processor power bring to the table? (1)This is not a market crying out for new consoles(/1). This is a market, rather, that is in desperate need of a triple-A industry that isn't on life support and a more diverse selection of top quality new IP.

But no, line up the new gimmicks. Remember how much they banged on about graphics and (2)processor power(/2) before? What was the only thing that mattered in the end? If the game played well, had a good story, and brought something fresh. More polygons and a share button and new motion controllers and extra screens won't buy that.

I want to add a couple of things based on specific points in your post.
1) Were you paying any attention at all to this site before the PS4 announcement? It seems like every other news story and forum post on here was a comment on the issues of the aging hardware.
2) Processing power and RAM is entire issue here. It's not enough anymore. Software is being stripped to the bone just to function these days.

Some extra points:
- PC's are so far ahead it's ridiculous, both technologically and in method. The current consoles were made by a world that doesn't exist anymore. Their age shows.
- My PS3, coincidentally, just fucked itself an hour ago, and I just had to rebuild it's whole databse. I'm not even joking, this is too perfectly timed for this discussion. My point is, a newer, more efficient system that doesn't pass out due to it's age would be quite nice.
- Don't open your post by trying to talk down to me, it makes you look like a dick.

 

[Atmos Duality]

xbox 360 only had frontier and that was never released in the west, and PS3 only had a HD remake of a PSP game, both of which were japan exclusive. and ALL the PSP games (except P3rd, the japan exclusive one) were remakes of the PS2 games (unless you count unite, which was MH2/MHF2 with more stuff).

until the wii, MH was a sony exclusive series, and since tri, it's been a nintendo exclusive...
...just as if Halo or something were to be released exclusively on the PS4, would your argument still be "well it's not really a selling point when the xbox had the other halo games"?...
...and considering that the last worldwide MH game not on a nintendo console was 4 years ago (and the last one released in the west was 3 years ago), yes, it's a selling point.

You're ignoring the point entirely: the effect of market saturation.
Fact is, I can get Monster Hunter on any of the aforementioned systems, for the last 3 years on the Sony systems or Wii, at a fraction of the price, with a better game library already available than either the 3DS or WiiU.

point 1:
remember when the 3DS came out?

Unfortunately yes. I have an Ambassador System to remind me.

everyone was moaning that there were no games and that it would be the end of nintendo.

that prediction sure turned out accurate didn't it?

They did. They were spot-on in fact.

If you aren't into ports, Mario, or remakes, you're left with a tiny handful of decent games (Kid Icarus and Fire Emblem leading the pack, and those are thoroughly meh). But nothing that screams "MUST OWN".

The 3DS has amazing potential, but outside of Nintendo and Capcom, nobody of note is developing for it.

nintendo has been in the games business longer than any other company, and at this point, they're nigh unkillable, it's better to be permanent than to die proving that you're the best

Hubris Incarnate.

point 2:

the back catalog of wii games may not seem like much, but remember, the PS4 will NOT be backwards compatible (and we don't yet know about the new xbox), even if it's not a significant selling point to buy a wiiU over a wii "your old stuff still works" IS a selling point for buying a wiiU over a PS4.

This is actually a point in the Wii's favor. It's not much of a point considering that any Wii game is already playing from behind on account of gimmicky waggle-wank, but even a fraction of something is still greater than nothing.

point 3:
"all the first party games are just the same as the previous ones"
so? that's what a series is, nobody complains that CoD is just another FPS

Nobody? Really?

"Spunkgargleweewee"

and I'd rather have the rehashed but still mechanically different from each other IPs than another 50 FPSes

Mechanically different? That's not even remotely true.

New Super Mario Bros 2, Super Mario Land 3D, Mario Kart 7...none of these games are mechanically different from their predecessors. Or how about those 3D remakes for Ocarina of Time and Starfox 64? Pokemon has been spinning its wheels mechanically for over a decade.

And those are the best sellers!

Ironically, it's Zelda that has deviated from its mechanical roots the most; not by a huge amount, but I'd by lying if I told you that Phantom Hourglass and A Link to the Past were 99% identical.

Metroid...well the less that's said about Other M, the better.
I don't know what Nintendo is going to do with Metroid after that.

 

[Nouw]

I'm finding it hard to blame Nintendo for lack of game releases when it's Ubisoft and SEGA that gave them the short straw.

 

[AzrealMaximillion]

people complaining about not enough games still?

I've played on monster hunter for 150 hours and still only got to the G rank stuff
that game ALONE has made the console worth buying, did the PS3 have a game that was worth playing for that long this time after release. (£2 per hour roughly, a movie costs £4.50 per hour, so cost/time the WiiU has beaten buying a ton of movies)

plus, there's a smash bros confirmed for the WiiU, pikmin 3 later this year, and a HD remake of LoZ:WW


people's main argument of "there's no games yet" is just plain wrong, what they really mean is "there's no games yet that I want"

I've got:
MH3U
batman arkham city
AC3
nintendo land
super mario bros U
a few of the virtual console games
and MY ENTIRE WII LIBRARY (and soon, the entire virtual console library too)

and people still say that there isn't enough to justify buying it?

Monster Hunter is a very niche game and you know it.
Batman and AC3 are both late ports that people bought on other consoles.
NintendoLand is a mini game comp
Super Mario Bros U is just New Super Mario Bros with Wii U features.
Virtual Console games are just re-releases
And the Wii Library wasn't full of a lot of gems either.

There are not enough Wii U exclusive games to justify a Wii U right now and no gimmick to fall back on.

 

[AdamG3691]

xbox 360 only had frontier and that was never released in the west, and PS3 only had a HD remake of a PSP game, both of which were japan exclusive. and ALL the PSP games (except P3rd, the japan exclusive one) were remakes of the PS2 games (unless you count unite, which was MH2/MHF2 with more stuff).

until the wii, MH was a sony exclusive series, and since tri, it's been a nintendo exclusive...
...just as if Halo or something were to be released exclusively on the PS4, would your argument still be "well it's not really a selling point when the xbox had the other halo games"?...
...and considering that the last worldwide MH game not on a nintendo console was 4 years ago (and the last one released in the west was 3 years ago), yes, it's a selling point.

You're ignoring the point entirely: the effect of market saturation.
Fact is, I can get Monster Hunter on any of the aforementioned systems, for the last 3 years on the Sony systems or Wii, at a fraction of the price, with a better game library already available than either the 3DS or WiiU.

point 1:
remember when the 3DS came out?

Unfortunately yes. I have an Ambassador System to remind me.

everyone was moaning that there were no games and that it would be the end of nintendo.

that prediction sure turned out accurate didn't it?

They did. They were spot-on in fact.

If you aren't into ports, Mario, or remakes, you're left with a tiny handful of decent games (Kid Icarus and Fire Emblem leading the pack, and those are thoroughly meh). But nothing that screams "MUST OWN".

The 3DS has amazing potential, but outside of Nintendo and Capcom, nobody of note is developing for it.

nintendo has been in the games business longer than any other company, and at this point, they're nigh unkillable, it's better to be permanent than to die proving that you're the best

Hubris Incarnate.

point 2:

the back catalog of wii games may not seem like much, but remember, the PS4 will NOT be backwards compatible (and we don't yet know about the new xbox), even if it's not a significant selling point to buy a wiiU over a wii "your old stuff still works" IS a selling point for buying a wiiU over a PS4.

This is actually a point in the Wii's favor. It's not much of a point considering that any Wii game is already playing from behind on account of gimmicky waggle-wank, but even a fraction of something is still greater than nothing.

point 3:
"all the first party games are just the same as the previous ones"
so? that's what a series is, nobody complains that CoD is just another FPS

Nobody? Really?

"Spunkgargleweewee"

and I'd rather have the rehashed but still mechanically different from each other IPs than another 50 FPSes

Mechanically different? That's not even remotely true.

New Super Mario Bros 2, Super Mario Land 3D, Mario Kart 7...none of these games are mechanically different from their predecessors. Or how about those 3D remakes for Ocarina of Time and Starfox 64? Pokemon has been spinning its wheels mechanically for over a decade.

And those are the best sellers!

Ironically, it's Zelda that has deviated from its mechanical roots the most; not by a huge amount, but I'd by lying if I told you that Phantom Hourglass and A Link to the Past were 99% identical.

Metroid...well the less that's said about Other M, the better.
I don't know what Nintendo is going to do with Metroid after that.

apologies, I'm not very clear on certain things when I'm tired, it's pretty late where I am

firstly, the older MH games are a glitchy mess, the only ones worth playing at all are MHFU (with it's horrific hitboxes and "THE CLAAAAAAAAAR"), MHP3rd (but it's in japanese and has very little content compared to the rest of the series (and once again, the claw)), and MH3U, tri WOULD count, but it's got the same content as MHP3rd, and in 5 days will have the least of any MH game since the servers are going down and taking 2/3 of the game's content with them

second, point 3, yes I shouldn't have said nobody, when talking about people, absolutes are always bad (wait... crap)

but the point still stands that very few people criticize CoD for just being an FPS, they don't demand innovation, but in games like a 2D platformer, if it has mario on the cover it's a signal to spew bile because it's the same as before (I'm not criticizing CoD, it's fine being a standard FPS, I'm criticizing the fact that people complain about nintendo IPs being redone over and over, but CoD gets a free pass, is it just because people expect FPSes to be the same everytime?)

finally, when I said "mechanically different from each other" I meant "one series is mechanically different from another series", each one fits it's niche perfectly well (actually, thinking of exclusive IPs for the other platforms: christ sony, you put spike in your all stars lineup, when are you going to release a new ape escape game? that series was awesome (or hell, just release the original as a PSOne classic with the original PAL voices, the PSP port sucks without a second analog stick :<))

 

[AdamG3691]

people complaining about not enough games still?

I've played on monster hunter for 150 hours and still only got to the G rank stuff
that game ALONE has made the console worth buying, did the PS3 have a game that was worth playing for that long this time after release. (£2 per hour roughly, a movie costs £4.50 per hour, so cost/time the WiiU has beaten buying a ton of movies)

plus, there's a smash bros confirmed for the WiiU, pikmin 3 later this year, and a HD remake of LoZ:WW


people's main argument of "there's no games yet" is just plain wrong, what they really mean is "there's no games yet that I want"

I've got:
MH3U
batman arkham city
AC3
nintendo land
super mario bros U
a few of the virtual console games
and MY ENTIRE WII LIBRARY (and soon, the entire virtual console library too)

and people still say that there isn't enough to justify buying it?

Monster Hunter is a very niche game and you know it.
Batman and AC3 are both late ports that people bought on other consoles.
NintendoLand is a mini game comp
Super Mario Bros U is just New Super Mario Bros with Wii U features.
Virtual Console games are just re-releases
And the Wii Library wasn't full of a lot of gems either.

There are not enough Wii U exclusive games to justify a Wii U right now and no gimmick to fall back on.

it's a niche game that boosted the sales of wiiU consoles by 25% in the UK
fine, they're ports, does that make them "not games"? I didn't get batman for my PS3, PC, or Xbox, to me it was a new game that I enjoyed.

nintendo land may have been a minigame collection, but once again, does that stop it from being a game?

and once again for NSMBU and the VC, how are they not games?


you've given a list of reasons why those games may not be great selling points, but the point is THEY'RE STILL GAMES, people are complaining that there aren't enough games, but what theyre really complaining is that there aren't enough games that fit their specific likes and dislikes and all other games outside that group may as well not matter, if I took that stance, I'd say that the XBox hasn't got enough games because I don't like FPSes

I wonder how many people will be defending the PS4 when people say it hasn't got any games and is too expensive to justfy buying? (hi PS3 launch )

 

[4RT1LL3RY]

At least 4 cycles of Moore's Law have passed since these consoles came out, hardware is now 2^4, aka 16, times better for the same price.

This only applies to Processors. Please do not apply it to all hardware. RAM only doubles ever 5 years so we've only been through 1 cycles for that. Network bandwidth follows Nielsen's Law which has it doubling every 21 months.

Ultimately they all fall to Wirth's Law
"software is getting slower more rapidly than hardware becomes faster"

Or better stated Gate's Law
"commercial software generally slows by 50% every 18 months"

In 2007 when I built a gaming PC it had an
Intel C2D E6550
MSI 650i motherboard
2GB of DDR2-800
Nvidia 8800GT
250GB hard drive

2GB of that ram cost me $90. In the winter of 2011 when I upgraded I got 16GB of ram for $90. It is definitely something ever 5 years, it seems to come in chunks when they come out with a new technique. Though RAM costs have increased recently compared to the past few years.

I blame Wirth's law on high level languages and the existence of interpreted languages like Java.

 

[Atmos Duality]

apologies, I'm not very clear on certain things when I'm tired, it's pretty late where I am

firstly, the older MH games are a glitchy mess, the only ones worth playing at all are MHFU (with it's horrific hitboxes and "THE CLAAAAAAAAAR"), MHP3rd (but it's in japanese and has very little content compared to the rest of the series (and once again, the claw)), and MH3U, tri WOULD count, but it's got the same content as MHP3rd, and in 5 days will have the least of any MH game since the servers are going down and taking 2/3 of the game's content with them

I grant you that I didn't have that many issues with Freedom Unite on my PSP, and my brief excursion into Tri was limited to toying around with the Switchaxe.

Either way, I'm pretty much spent on the series after that.

but the point still stands that very few people criticize CoD for just being an FPS, they don't demand innovation, but in games like a 2D platformer, if it has mario on the cover it's a signal to spew bile because it's the same as before (I'm not criticizing CoD, it's fine being a standard FPS, I'm criticizing the fact that people complain about nintendo IPs being redone over and over, but CoD gets a free pass, is it just because people expect FPSes to be the same everytime?)

Every Christmas season, there is usually a shitstorm about the homogenized nature of Call of Duty and Modern Military Shooters in general. It's also one of the only arguments I've actually heard in passing (4 people were arguing about the topic in my Physics II class early last year, and again last Christmas in another course).

Now, that flies in the face of CoD 4.x selling all the time, but Mario is kind of in the same boat.
While CoD 4.x succeeds all of its clones and wannabees tend to do considerably worse (Battlefield 3 met with a comparatively tepid response, and it was firmly in 2nd place), and you will find mounds of criticism for everyone chasing that Golden Shooter Formula; levied back at CoD4.x.

finally, when I said "mechanically different from each other" I meant "one series is mechanically different from another series", each one fits it's niche perfectly well (actually, thinking of exclusive IPs for the other platforms: christ sony, you put spike in your all stars lineup, when are you going to release a new ape escape game? that series was awesome (or hell, just release the original as a PSOne classic with the original PAL voices, the PSP port sucks without a second analog stick :<))

Well, I have no further comment there.

 

[asap]

Shame, the Nintendo consoles have always been some of my favourates, I hope some good games come out to make the system worth buying. Remember that the PS3 caused loses at first, its not always a terrible sign.

 

[Something Amyss]

Then your predictions were full of crap, we're still waiting on a decent library. You DO know you have to give people a REASON to by your consol. This industry's appetite for self destruction is ridiculous.

This industry's failure to learn is more like it. Remember, the prior counterparts to these units sold like crazy with shit at launch. They seemed to assume that this was a trend that could last forever, or at least into the next generation.

I thought I might be alone in learning my lesson, but apparently, I'm the voice of gaming.

ALL THA POWAH! MWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

 

[medv4380]

At least 4 cycles of Moore's Law have passed since these consoles came out, hardware is now 2^4, aka 16, times better for the same price.

This only applies to Processors. Please do not apply it to all hardware. RAM only doubles ever 5 years so we've only been through 1 cycles for that. Network bandwidth follows Nielsen's Law which has it doubling every 21 months.

Ultimately they all fall to Wirth's Law
"software is getting slower more rapidly than hardware becomes faster"

Or better stated Gate's Law
"commercial software generally slows by 50% every 18 months"

In 2007 when I built a gaming PC it had an
Intel C2D E6550
MSI 650i motherboard
2GB of DDR2-800
Nvidia 8800GT
250GB hard drive

2GB of that ram cost me $90. In the winter of 2011 when I upgraded I got 16GB of ram for $90. It is definitely something ever 5 years, it seems to come in chunks when they come out with a new technique. Though RAM costs have increased recently compared to the past few years.

I blame Wirth's law on high level languages and the existence of interpreted languages like Java.

With ram you don't look at just the capacity though.
Your DDR2 800 in 2007 would get your DDR3 1600. The ram speed is a huge bottle neck, and is only getting worse.

It's not just things like Interpreted Languages like Java, but Multi-Core coding causes problems as well. There are too many things that parallel code just doesn't work very well with, and explaining hardware to programmers is like explaining to a child why they should go to the dentist.

 

[uchytjes]

Wait, 6.3 BILLION in sales resulted in 71.2 MILLION profit? That's, like, 1% profit? Is that how corporations (except Apple and Google, apparently) work these days? No wonder the worldwide economy is in craps.

Wait... isn't it a good thing to have that little actual profit for extremely big businesses? Y'know, keep the money moving around instead of gaining it all for one's self? Sure if you factor in expansion and upgrading of parts in the company the profit will likely dwindle, but I doubt Nintendo has to worry about that very much.