Our Covid Response

Silvanus

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From your 2nd link that leads to the full study here:

There are 2 main postulated mechanisms for the higher mortality. One posits that during the pandemic, those who were hospitalized tended to have more severe disease and higher risk of death. Delays in seeking care because of fear of exposure to SARS-CoV-2 or because of barriers to access to outpatient and emergency care during the pandemic would result in patients admitted sicker and later in their illness. A second possible mechanism is that a lack of critical hospital resources such as intensive care unit beds and personnel because of the hospitalized patients with SARS-CoV-2 resulted in lower-quality care for all patients. This latter possible mechanism is supported by greater mortality increases in rural hospitals, smaller hospitals, and hospitals that were not affiliated with medical schools during the pandemic compared with the prepandemic period.38 Also, mortality for non–SARS-CoV-2 illness during the pandemic was worse even after controlling for severity of illness.

It was not possible in this study, nor would it be in any study using only administrative data, to determine the relative contributions of those 2 mechanisms to the excess mortality.
Gah, I got the second and third links mixed up I think.

Still-- the point here is that there are two other links, and you're using a minor issue with one to dismiss all three. It's the usual approach again.
 
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Phoenixmgs

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Gah, I got the second and third links mixed up I think.

Still-- the point here is that there are two other links, and you're using a minor issue with one to dismiss all three. It's the usual approach again.
It's not a minor issue. AGAIN, the 1st link is paywalled so you can't look into it. And the 3rd link isn't even a study, it's just an article discussing raw ONS data. And remember you pulled the following out the 2nd link: "Outcome was mortality in the 30 days after admission with adjusted odds generated from a 3-level (admission, hospital, and county) logistic regression model that included diagnosis, demographic variables, comorbidities, hospital characteristics, and hospital prevalence of SARS-CoV-2." You used that excerpt to "prove" they adjusted for something they totally didn't adjust for and literally said was impossible in that very study (which is plainly visible when you can read the whole thing unlike the 1st link). And you want me to believe the 1st study did actually adjust for that when all I have is the Cliff Notes version to go off of?

Also think about what it would actually take to prove they adjusted for the level of condition. You would need not only data from a period in the pandemic that would have all that info (which you can't get from administrative data) and you'd need that same data from a period before the pandemic because how do you adjust for that without having both sets of data? And, AGAIN, it's just basic common sense when hospital admissions have dropped that the people not coming in anymore are the ones with less serious conditions, is it not? Lastly, less people are going to the hospital but the hospitals are overwhelmed and providing worse care causing increased mortality? Sounds like that's more of a logistics issue of not allocating medical resources correctly (when you have something as high as a 40% drop in hospital admissions) vs something squarely caused by covid. The logic of your argument is just not checking out.
 

Phoenixmgs

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Really solid video going over current covid issues as well as a decent recap of some of the main covid issues over the past 2 years. I love how Paul explains immunology in a rather mechanistic way so you understand how things interact with each other instead of just throwing data at you.

[@ ~3:24] The immunological component associated with protection against severe disease really is T-cells.... That protection against severe disease isn't mediated by neutralizing antibodies, it's mediated by T-cells.

@Silvanus So your claim that the OG vaccines were helping very little against severe disease now is not backed by actual science at all. And why should we give 2 shits about the amount of neutralizing antibodies someone has? I told you the antibodies didn't matter much and you just don't ever want to believe anything I say because you act like I don't know how to actually do the research on things and just read what I want to. Just because the media says antibodies this and antibodies that doesn't mean antibodies mean much in the grand scheme of things.

[@ ~23:42] Even if 100% of the world were vaccinated, and even if it never mutated after coming out of China, it would still circulate and cause mild illness and some severe illness.

That's something I've been claiming for awhile. You guys are so concerned with mutations when they have never mattered and only probably contributed to the virus being less deadly. Yet we have to do everything to lower transmissions so the virus has less opportunity to mutate, that was an unscientific stance literally the whole time (and only a thing because of fear mongering media coverage that followed "the science" vs actual science). Yet I'm the one not following science... sure...

[@ ~24:26] You can't set yourself up a goal of preventing transmission or preventing mild disease for a short incubation period disease, it's just not reasonable.

And I've been the unreasonable one in this covid discussion?

[@ ~7:58] I think that if you could go back in time, which you can do actually if you mix DayQuil with NyQuil, a lot of people don't realize that.

Pretty funny joke by Paul.
 

Silvanus

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Also think about what it would actually take to prove they adjusted for the level of condition.
Stop there for a moment: as I already pointed out earlier, adjusting for diagnosis and adjusting for severity of condition are two different things. The latter is essentially impossible to adjust for in a dataset of the size present in the second study (~8.5 million). The former is much more manageable, and is mentioned in the Abstract specifically.

@Silvanus So your claim that the OG vaccines were helping very little against severe disease now is not backed by actual science at all. [...]
Because the one researcher you're currently obsessed with says so?

Do you have a hero-worship complex?
 

Phoenixmgs

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Stop there for a moment: as I already pointed out earlier, adjusting for diagnosis and adjusting for severity of condition are two different things. The latter is essentially impossible to adjust for in a dataset of the size present in the second study (~8.5 million). The former is much more manageable, and is mentioned in the Abstract specifically.



Because the one researcher you're currently obsessed with says so?

Do you have a hero-worship complex?
And...? Diagnosis wasn't the contention of the debate, it's severity of condition. If there's a 40% drop in hospital admission, who the fuck do you think stopped going to the hospital? People on death's door or people mildly inconvenienced? It's basic logic and common sense.

Paul Offit is the foremost US vaccine expert, he's fucking made a vaccine. He's talking about basic immunological principles and science. T-cells provide protection for severe disease regardless of disease, the antibodies don't, that's literally settled science. It's not like he's saying some radical ideas, he's stating basic science and how the immune system works. Just because covid was horribly messaged by public health and the media doesn't change basic immunological science.
 

Trunkage

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Stop there for a moment: as I already pointed out earlier, adjusting for diagnosis and adjusting for severity of condition are two different things. The latter is essentially impossible to adjust for in a dataset of the size present in the second study (~8.5 million). The former is much more manageable, and is mentioned in the Abstract specifically.



Because the one researcher you're currently obsessed with says so?

Do you have a hero-worship complex?
It's got nothing to do witj hero worship

It's the underdog complex. That one truth speaker who goes against the consensus. Science actually has a bunch of people's stories that are made up to fit the mould. Eg. Galileo vs the church. John Snow vs Doctors who believed in Miasma

This is a very true phenomenon. It's also very rare, and most 'truth speakers' are speaking no truth. Think of the doctor who sewed donkey balls into humans to increase fertility or the doctor who circumcised women if they were under general anesthesia to 'help with sex' or Kelloggs... just all of it

You providing evidence of something existing/happening is actually disproving to Phoenixings. Eg. You providing evidence of Ivermectin not helping with Covid is, to him, evidence OF Ivermectin working
 

Silvanus

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And...? Diagnosis wasn't the contention of the debate, it's severity of condition. If there's a 40% drop in hospital admission, who the fuck do you think stopped going to the hospital? People on death's door or people mildly inconvenienced? It's basic logic and common sense.
What do you think the single biggest contributor to the severity of someone's condition is?

Paul Offit is the foremost US vaccine expert [...]
I'm so fucking tired of hearing about your latest public figure boner. You get a new one in your head, and suddenly every fucking post of yours is linking to some lightweight YouTube video from the same damn guy (because the ones you become enamoured by always the ones with YouTube channels, coincidentally).
 

Phoenixmgs

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It's got nothing to do witj hero worship

It's the underdog complex. That one truth speaker who goes against the consensus. Science actually has a bunch of people's stories that are made up to fit the mould. Eg. Galileo vs the church. John Snow vs Doctors who believed in Miasma

This is a very true phenomenon. It's also very rare, and most 'truth speakers' are speaking no truth. Think of the doctor who sewed donkey balls into humans to increase fertility or the doctor who circumcised women if they were under general anesthesia to 'help with sex' or Kelloggs... just all of it

You providing evidence of something existing/happening is actually disproving to Phoenixings. Eg. You providing evidence of Ivermectin not helping with Covid is, to him, evidence OF Ivermectin working
Paul Offit doesn't say anything that's actually against scientific consensus... It may be against what your idea of the scientific consensus is based on the media representation but that doesn't mean it's true. For example, they say boosters are good because it increases antibodies so it's better protection right? Well, the Moderna vaccine produced 2x (IIRC) the antibodies of the Pfizer vaccine in the original trials because the Moderna dose is higher yet in actual clinical outcomes (the important fucking thing), there was virtually no difference between those that got Moderna and Pfizer vaccines. That's why Paul Offit has never been for boosters outside of the elderly and vulnerable because the logic that boosters even help anyone else doesn't make sense let alone the fact there's no data that shows boosters help in the majority of people.

When there's actual good evidence of something, I fully except it. Why do you think that I think ivermectin works against covid because I don't? When an actual good study was finally done, I accepted it immediately, I'll quote my post below. The reason ivermectin worked in other studies and trials wasn't because it directly worked against covid but helped in other conditions that the person had and thus lead to helping against covid.
Someone finally put together a fairly comprehensive study on using ivermectin against COVID. Spoiler, doesn't do anything.

What do you mean, the ivermectin group did 1.6% better, it works!!! Just kidding.

At least they did a placebo arm unlike the remdesivir study.
---

What do you think the single biggest contributor to the severity of someone's condition is?



I'm so fucking tired of hearing about your latest public figure boner. You get a new one in your head, and suddenly every fucking post of yours is linking to some lightweight YouTube video from the same damn guy (because the ones you become enamoured by always the ones with YouTube channels, coincidentally).
Not covid for non-covid related conditions...

Name a single thing Paul Offit has said that's actually against the scientific consensus.
 

Silvanus

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Not covid for non-covid related conditions...
You're almost there.

The single biggest factor in the severity of someone's condition is... what illness they have. The most effective indicator for which is their diagnosis.

Name a single thing Paul Offit has said that's actually against the scientific consensus.
He was most drastically wrong in his original estimation that it would not affect the US any more than flu. In his own words: "I am on record as having been dead wrong about this. I never imagined it would be this bad".

But this is besides the point, really. Offit is usually in tune with the medical consensus. But you don't actually follow the opinions of the people you keep bringing up; you just use the name when it's convenient, and ignore them when it's not. Paul Offit encourages kids to be fully vaccinated, and for masks + social distancing even after being vaccinated. He's mostly way out of tune with your positions.
 

Phoenixmgs

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You're almost there.

The single biggest factor in the severity of someone's condition is... what illness they have. The most effective indicator for which is their diagnosis.



He was most drastically wrong in his original estimation that it would not affect the US any more than flu. In his own words: "I am on record as having been dead wrong about this. I never imagined it would be this bad".

But this is besides the point, really. Offit is usually in tune with the medical consensus. But you don't actually follow the opinions of the people you keep bringing up; you just use the name when it's convenient, and ignore them when it's not. Paul Offit encourages kids to be fully vaccinated, and for masks + social distancing even after being vaccinated. He's mostly way out of tune with your positions.
Your sources never claimed covid was the reason though, they said that the hospitals were overwhelmed and that's why. Yet admissions were down 40% in one of the periods.

Who wasn't wrong about early predictions? I think the official White House prediction was like 100K IIRC. What actual science has Paul Offit been wrong about? I know he said you don't need to be vaccinated if you had covid and I'm pretty sure he doesn't really care about kids being vaccinate now because over 90% of them have been infected anyway. I don't recall any mask or social distancing stance he's had since I don't think he's even mentioned either of those in the last year in any of podcasts I've listened to him on (since those things aren't anything anyone is doing anymore). He's already said multiple times you can't stop mild infections so I don't see why he'd be for masks and social distancing now if he was before. Masks and social distancing was so 2020.
 

Silvanus

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Your sources never claimed covid was the reason though, they said that the hospitals were overwhelmed and that's why. Yet admissions were down 40% in one of the periods.
Why do you think hospitals and healthcare staff were overwhelmed on an unprecedented scale during the pandemic, then, if its nothing to do with said pandemic?

Who wasn't wrong about early predictions? I think the official White House prediction was like 100K IIRC.
"NAME ONE SINGLE TIME HE'S BEEN WRONG"

Two posts later:

"THAT DOESN'T COUNT OTHER PEOPLE WERE ALSO WRONG"

So much blah.

I'm pretty sure he doesn't really care about kids being vaccinate now because over 90% of them have been infected anyway. I don't recall any mask or social distancing stance he's had since I don't think he's even mentioned either of those in the last year in any of podcasts I've listened to him on (since those things aren't anything anyone is doing anymore). He's already said multiple times you can't stop mild infections so I don't see why he'd be for masks and social distancing now if he was before. Masks and social distancing was so 2020.
So you're just... insisting he didn't say those things that directly contradict your positions, because you've not... heard him say them in the podcasts?

No, dude. Paul Offit heartily encouraged kids to get vaccinated, and for masks and social distancing to continue after people vaccinate. I'm sorry that the guy you're lauding doesn't actually agree with your careless, who-gives-a-shit approach to public health.
 
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Trunkage

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Paul Offit doesn't say anything that's actually against scientific consensus... It may be against what your idea of the scientific consensus is based on the media representation but that doesn't mean it's true. For example, they say boosters are good because it increases antibodies so it's better protection right? Well, the Moderna vaccine produced 2x (IIRC) the antibodies of the Pfizer vaccine in the original trials because the Moderna dose is higher yet in actual clinical outcomes (the important fucking thing), there was virtually no difference between those that got Moderna and Pfizer vaccines. That's why Paul Offit has never been for boosters outside of the elderly and vulnerable because the logic that boosters even help anyone else doesn't make sense let alone the fact there's no data that shows boosters help in the majority of people.
Is there something that you skip in this quote?

Becuase (assuming that you got this from Offit) you've just turned him into an idiot who clearly overclaims what the consensus says who can be disproven by just reciting what you said above
 

Generals

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So does anybody else here still wear masks in public? I'm one of the only ones that still do where I live.
As someone who doesn't have any (known) immunity issues, nah. The general consensus is that Omicron is far less deadly than Alpha or Delta and as almost everyone has either been vaccinated or infected in the past I consider it as just another flu (now). I'll probably get my anti-omicron booster though. Only habit I have adopted since Covid is to work at home when I am sick and also wearing a mask when going to stores in that case, even if it's just a cold.
 

Drathnoxis

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As someone who doesn't have any (known) immunity issues, nah. The general consensus is that Omicron is far less deadly than Alpha or Delta and as almost everyone has either been vaccinated or infected in the past I consider it as just another flu (now). I'll probably get my anti-omicron booster though. Only habit I have adopted since Covid is to work at home when I am sick and also wearing a mask when going to stores in that case, even if it's just a cold.
And why do you want to get the flu? I haven't been sick at all since Covid started and I don't miss it in the slightest.
 

Phoenixmgs

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Why do you think hospitals and healthcare staff were overwhelmed on an unprecedented during the pandemic, then, if its nothing to do with said pandemic?



"NAME ONE SINGLE TIME HE'S BEEN WRONG"

Two posts later:

"THAT DOESN'T COUNT OTHER PEOPLE WERE ALSO WRONG"

So much blah.



So you're just... insisting he didn't say those things that directly contradict your positions, because you've not... heard him say them in the podcasts?

No, dude. Paul Offit heartily encouraged kids to get vaccinated, and for masks and social distancing to continue after people vaccinate. I'm sorry that the guy you're lauding doesn't actually agree with your careless, who-gives-a-shit approach to public health.
The departments that care for covid patients could have been overwhelmed at times in certain places but saying the entire hospital was overwhelmed with a 40% drop in admissions... how? Many medical personnel were not working and sitting on their butts. Also, patients were funneled to the hospital by their own policies. It was poor allocation of medical resources that caused a hospital to be overwhelmed with admission drops so high.

An early prediction is Paul Offit being wrong on actual SCIENCE? What vaccine and immunological science has he ever been wrong on? And his prediction was the scientific consensus at the time, the thing you place so much value on, you know it changes over time because that's how science works, it changes as we learn more and more about something.

I'm not saying he didn't say those things (you have no source saying he did though), but people's stances change over time. When I started listening to podcasts with him was past the time of masks and social distancing so it was never a talking point is all, and he's the vaccine expert so vaccine questions would obviously get asked vs more general covid things. I very much doubt you'll find anything within the past year of Offit recommending masks or social distancing. Look at how Dr. Leana Wen's stances have changed and she's even gotten turned on by the public health mob when she was perhaps the staunchest of covid safety preachers.

I do very much care about public health, but I stay focused on the forest and not just the covid tree. Look at the excess death Europe is showing that have virtually nothing to do with covid, and in several countries excess deaths are higher now than at peak covid. You think focusing on a singular public health issue that is rather harmless to the majority of the population is a good thing? 1) you then will ignore other public health issues that are more serious and 2) the very measures you put in place to slow covid are contributing to those more serious and ignored public health issues. It's only been 2 years and we are already seeing the effects. Childhood type 2 diabetes climbed up 77% during the pandemic in the US. You think keeping kids out of school and out of activities during the pandemic actually positively affected their health? Whatever minor covid health benefit they may have gotten from that is far outweighed by all the costs suffered from those covid policies. We probably couldn't have done worse for the kids if we tried.


Is there something that you skip in this quote?

Becuase (assuming that you got this from Offit) you've just turned him into an idiot who clearly overclaims what the consensus says who can be disproven by just reciting what you said above
The consensus isn't for boosters, why do you think the top FDA officials Marion Gruber and Philip Krause resigned over covid boosters? Because the White House was politically pushing for them when the data wasn't there and still isn't there to this day. Don't you find it funny the CDC won't release booster data for those under 50? Just maybe, it's because the data shows it does nothing because if it showed benefit, they'd be screaming it from the rooftops.

As someone who doesn't have any (known) immunity issues, nah. The general consensus is that Omicron is far less deadly than Alpha or Delta and as almost everyone has either been vaccinated or infected in the past I consider it as just another flu (now). I'll probably get my anti-omicron booster though. Only habit I have adopted since Covid is to work at home when I am sick and also wearing a mask when going to stores in that case, even if it's just a cold.
It's hardly a good booster for omicron though because it's bivalent and a low dose.

No, the other thing that was a little concerning is, there were really pretty good animal model studies done by Bob Sedar at his lab at NIH using non-human primates, rhesus macaques. And what he did was he sort of gave those animals two doses of the ancestral strain. And then either the third dose was, again, another dose of the ancestral strain or the Omicron only, and then challenged the animals with Omicron. But again, and what he found was no difference. There was no difference in protection of those animals against moderate or severe illness. So therefore, the animal model studies also didn’t make a case for what we’re trying to do here.

Is there any effect of the sort of the… What do you call it? Original antigenic sin, where it was already exposed to the original?

– There’s always that. I think that’s always the hill we’re trying to climb here because I think if you took, say a 20-year-old who had never been naturally infected, never had been vaccinated and gave them just say BA.4/BA.5, you’d see a dramatically greater neutralizing antibody response than these folks, like me, who’s been sort of given three doses of vaccine, naturally infected you sort of lock in to that original response. And that’s right. So when you then go to the germinal center, the B-cells that have already seen sort of the epitopes on Wuhan-1 that are also contained on say, BA.4/BA.5, those will be expanded much more readily than will the new regions that you’re trying to promote, which is why you just don’t see that good of an immune response.


And why do you want to get the flu? I haven't been sick at all since Covid started and I don't miss it in the slightest.
Because I miss out on more life if I try avoid getting colds/flus/covid than the life I miss out on from being sick.