Pachter: Amalur IP is Worth $20 Million

[The Wooster]

Pachter: Amalur IP is Worth $20 Million

Anyone interested in a slightly-used MMO?

So things aren't going well for 38 Studios. The Kingdoms of Amalur: Reckoning developer owes the Rhode Island Economic Development Corporation some $50 million dollars, not including interest. According to a report that surfaced earlier this week, the developer was forced to fire all its temp and contract workers in order to scrounge up enough money to pay off an overdue $1.125 million loan payment. If things get worse, the studio may be forced to start selling off its IPs, including upcoming Kingdom of Amalur MMO spinoff, Project Copernicus. If that's the case, how much would they get for it? Very little, says market analyst, Michael Pachter.

"Nobody is buying MMOs after [Star Wars: The Old Republic] fizzled," he said. "I think value is low, probably $20 million or so. There is just no demand for game assets right now, as THQ proved when it tried to sell the Warhammer MMO. I think [Electronic Arts] could step in, since they are the publisher, so you might see some alternative way to get [38 Studios] some bridge financing."

THQ, which is also facing a bit of a cash flow problem, stated it was actively looking for a partner to help fund its Warhammer 40K MMO back in February. Unfortunately, despite the appeal of the license material, no one was willing to pony up the cash. THQ eventually had to fire some 100 staff and announce that the game was being rejigged into a single player title with limited online multiplayer.

There's been some speculation that EA, who published Amalur, might step in and help fund Project Copernicus, a speculation that EA corporate communications vice president, Jeff Brown, insists is groundless.

"Nope--never been an announcement on that," he told Joystiq. "We don't have any new announcements to make regarding 38 Studios. We enjoyed working with [38 Studios founder Curt Schilling] and his team on their first game, Kingdoms of Amalur: Reckoning. Like game fans all over the world, we look forward to what 38 Studios creates next."

Source: Gamestop [http://www.gamespot.com/news/amalur-ip-worth-20-million-analyst-6378267]

Permalink

 

[KeyMaster45]

Reckoning was a great single player game, a bit rough around the edges in some departments but a blast overall. Frankly I think they need to set their sites a bit lower and put out some more single player games that explores the rest of Amalur. Going straight for the MMO after their first title I think was a big mistake.

 

[Kungfu_Teddybear]

Kingdoms of Amalur: Reckoning was a great game and a very ambitious first title, they should never have tried to go for an MMO straight after their first title. They should have continued to work on more single player games, ideally exploring more of Amalur, to get more experience before even thinking of tackling an MMO spin-off. We don't even need any more MMO's at the moment, there's enough going around and we don't need any more flooding the market. They set their sights too high.

 

[Therumancer]

Hmmm, yes, that fizzle with TOR is going to be felt for a while. I actually thought that game would be the "WoW-killer" of legend, something I rarely say, but Bioware managed to drop the ball hard. Even when I tried it early on I thought that as it went on it was going to blossom, and it never really did. I should have given up when they revealed the tunnel shooter space combat, but my expectations stayed high, and stayed there even when it became apparently they really didn't spend like 300 million on game content. Biggest let down (albiet not as quickly) since "Age Of Conan" for me.

As far as the relevency to Amalur, I'll explain that in a second. My basic opinion is that EA is right and ToR failed due to casuals. Really ToR was a REALLY casual game that didn't move forward in terms of content or comnpexity from games like WoW. Like most MMO gamers when I played games like WoW or Star Wars Galaxies, or whatever I keep thinking "you know, it would be cool if you could do this" but understand how with the game engine it isn't possible. For new MMOs I want those things I wished I could have done to be there, with them continueing to grow as the technology and engines allow it, even if it makes the games increasingly complex. ToR was great for a while, but in the end it was pretty much a single player cinematic game, with persistant hubs and some group quests. Not enough depth or endgame for the truely hardcore (though many remain in hopes it will appear), and the casuals started to leave when they finished all the glitz and flash a couple of times. Amalur (yes I got to it) is by definition a casual game, as Yahtzee put it jokingly it's close to "Baby's first Skyrim", it's a colorful, cartoony brawler with some customizable elements and very little in the way of actual challenge. Despite hiring RA Salvatore to do the back story, the lore is generally a mess (and actually mocked by some) and pretty much ignored in favor of an open-world casual hackfest with fancy carton graphics. It's a GOOD game overall, especially for the first in a series, BUT as an MMO what exactly do you have there? Building from that your looking at a casual, cartoony, action RPG, the world setting of which seems to be a turn off to most people. If the industry has finally learned that they need to aim MMOs at the serious gamers (who stick around) Amalur as a property is anathema to everything an MMO needs to be. Being worth 20 million sounds optimistic.

Truthfully, I think game developers need to look towards games that survived for a long time and held onto dedicated fan bases. Like EVE and Anarchy Online, while both technologically dated represent some pretty deep gameplay that has kept people coming back for years. Likewise if ToR fails, SoE might be well advised into looking towards re-launching SWG with a new coat of paint (ie better graphics, but a lot of the same core gameplay). They managed to ruin that by changing the game radically half way through, but I'd imagine a relaunch could solve a lot of that if they did it right.

I am hoping the MMO isn't dead, and that what we're seeing with the low asking price for Amalur is merely the industry adapting, and learning that the idea of the "introductory level MMO" is a thing of the past, and that such games need to be aimed at more serious gamers with the intention of keeping them.

 

[Andy Shandy]

They're going for an MMO as their second game? Well, we may as well prepare the 21 gun salute now then. Did they not learn from the likes of Realtime Worlds, who after making the successful Crackdown, then tried to make an MMO in APB and then, six weeks later, went into administration and died.

 

[dyre]

I always felt Amalur gave off that vibe of too much passion and not enough sound business planning. I hope things work out for them though.

 

[Freechoice]

I always felt Amalur gave off that vibe of too much passion and not enough sound business planning. I hope things work out for them though.

Nerdhammer 34k interviews egotistical buttfuck whose disappearance from Bethesda made Skyrim playable.

 

[Scars Unseen]

Truthfully, I think game developers need to look towards games that survived for a long time and held onto dedicated fan bases. Like EVE and Anarchy Online, while both technologically dated represent some pretty deep gameplay that has kept people coming back for years. Likewise if ToR fails, SoE might be well advised into looking towards re-launching SWG with a new coat of paint (ie better graphics, but a lot of the same core gameplay). They managed to ruin that by changing the game radically half way through, but I'd imagine a relaunch could solve a lot of that if they did it right.

Eve isn't technologically dated. CCP has put more effort into keeping their game looking good and adding more content than Blizzard has with WoW. Granted, the nature of that content is different due to the opposite natures of themepark and sandbox MMOs, but There's nothing partucularly "old tech" about Eve Online in 2012. Hell, they're getting DirectX 11 support soon.

Also, I'm not sure that SOE has any choice about SWG. That was probably Lucas Arts' call.

 

[Eric the Orange]

My question is why do we always see Pachters predictions coming up in news articles. Is he just that good at it or is it that he's entertaining.

I'm sorry if that's only tangentially on topic but it's been bothering me for awhile now.

 

[Therumancer]

Truthfully, I think game developers need to look towards games that survived for a long time and held onto dedicated fan bases. Like EVE and Anarchy Online, while both technologically dated represent some pretty deep gameplay that has kept people coming back for years. Likewise if ToR fails, SoE might be well advised into looking towards re-launching SWG with a new coat of paint (ie better graphics, but a lot of the same core gameplay). They managed to ruin that by changing the game radically half way through, but I'd imagine a relaunch could solve a lot of that if they did it right.

Eve isn't technologically dated. CCP has put more effort into keeping their game looking good and adding more content than Blizzard has with WoW. Granted, the nature of that content is different due to the opposite natures of themepark and sandbox MMOs, but There's nothing partucularly "old tech" about Eve Online in 2012. Hell, they're getting DirectX 11 support soon.

Also, I'm not sure that SOE has any choice about SWG. That was probably Lucas Arts' call.

In the case of SWG, I was there as the servers closed. The stories I was hearing among the last remaining players were that SOE decided it didn't want to pay for the liscence given that ToR was coming out and how the game hadn't really recovered since the horrible way they handled the NGE. Lucasarts didn't shut it down and refuse to sell the liscence, it was a desician by SOE, and I suppose I can see the point given how dated the game was. SoE however did maintain the liscence to run "Clone Wars Adventures" apparently which means they still have some dealings with Lucasarts, and according to some rumors I've heard in a number of places SoE maintains the rights to the name "Star Wars Galaxies" and has paid to hold some proprietary stuff related to it. Probably just corperate security, but the point is that their options are apparently open.

Ultimatly SoE could probably re-open SWG tomorrow if they decided they wanted to pay Lucasarts the asking price. As much as I miss SWG that wouldn't be a good move though, if they plan to do that they really should update and fix the game. Hence why I said with ToR failing they have an oppertunity to jazz up the game, and re-release since the competition they feared isn't as strong as they suspected it would be.

That's my understanding of it, how correct that is, is anyone's guess, but it seems pretty likely to me, and my sources seemed decent at the time when some of this was more recent.

As far as CCP's EVE goes, I tried that again last year, and it is really dated. Yes they ARE updating it, adding new content, and even showing off some bettwe graphics in the Captain's Quarters and such, but to be honest a lot of the graphics for the space stations, ships, astroids, and similar things all strike me as being pretty bland. While I was playing they introduced the new turret animations, and I really wasn't all that impressed.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying EVE is a bad game, but it is old, and no number of updates can hide that. But then again EVE's player base isn't really there for the graphics and is pretty much cool with the way it is, so it's fine.... and yes CCP does put some effort into doing what they can, as I said they put in new turret animations while I was playing.

Ultimatly, my dream game would be an original science fiction property combining AO on the ground and EVE in space. EVE is perhaps the deepest MMO space sim out there, and AO has everything from ground and air vehicles, to pilotable mecha, to cyberware and things like that. I don't play either game currently, but both have been around for a long time, and have people who have been involved in them from the beginning... that's pretty much what MMO developers have to look at in order to build a lasting community. If they could launch a game starting with the features of both of those MMOs as they stand right now, I think they would have something that could compete with WoW, and would retain a goodly number of players.

 

[Baldr]

This is sad, I've gotten some great advice on industry stuff from vets and friends at 38 Studios, it is a shame they now might now not have a job in the next couple weeks.

 

[archvile93]

If 38 dies it really is their own fault. What do those business meetings sound like. "Okay so we have a single game under our belts that did decently, but we don't have much money, or an established brand with a devoted following. With this in mind I've decided the best course of action is to make an MMO next, the most expensive and risky genre around." Sounds like another case of Icarus flying too close to the sun.

 

[SenseOfTumour]

I think a big part of the games industry's problem is a brand's worth being $20 million and yet being considered almost worthless.


Hell, I'll take $20 million if no-one wants it

I know I'm being facetious and don't understand business, but considering $20 is probably about how much the publishers/devs get out of a sale after retail,taxes,etc take their cut, that's a million copies sold.

If a million seller isn't worth bothering with, we need to scale down this industry some, it's no wonder we end up with only COD and WOW clones, if a company can run up $50 million in debt trying out a new IP.

 

[Freechoice]

I think a big part of the games industry's problem is a brand's worth being $20 million and yet being considered almost worthless.


Hell, I'll take $20 million if no-one wants it

I know I'm being facetious and don't understand business, but considering $20 is probably about how much the publishers/devs get out of a sale after retail,taxes,etc take their cut, that's a million copies sold.

If a million seller isn't worth bothering with, we need to scale down this industry some, it's no wonder we end up with only COD and WOW clones, if a company can run up $50 million in debt trying out a new IP.

But you have to also consider the developer as well. They wanted to start Amalur off as an MMO. Who would do that? And the fact that they took 75 million from Rhode Island for a fantasy RPG? You know, the genre most visited by everyone and their mother?

Shit, Darkest of Days was made for 1 million and was basically cursed from inception. 8monkey labs still got the game out and it worked. It wasn't great, but it worked. Now imagine if they had the money and time that 38 Studios had. Game would have been fucking amazing. Maybe. Point is, overblown Tolkien fanboys getting taxpayer money is bad.

 

[Moonlight Butterfly]

It's a shame I really enjoyed Amalur. I hope they manage to recover. It was a bit silly of them to go for an MMO they just aren't doing very well lately.

Guild Wars 2 will probably be the next big thing I'm guessing.

 

[karloss01]

I wish people stop with trying to make an MMO bigger then WOW, its not gonna happen with the way the economy is. only reason WOW was successful was because it did it right and did it first and now its too big to be toppled by anyone, hell i never though TOR would do it. if any MMORPG had a shot it would be guild wars 2 since it already has an establish fan base and apart from the initial retail price its free.

anyway the only thing i'm sure in this whole thing is WOW will only fall when it becomes too old or if this economical state drives enough people away from it.

I played the demo for Amalur: reckoning and it was very meh.