[Politics] - The Future of Taiwan and Hong Kong

[Hawki]

This could arguably fit into the "Nazi China" thread, but I feel these issues can be discussed in relative isolation.

So, chances are most of you are aware of the protests in Hong Kong (protests and counter-protests are being held right now in various Australian cities, mainly by Chinese students), and are also aware of the stand-off between China and Taiwan, the latter not ruling out the use of force in regards to unifying with the latter. And by "unifying," I mean "bringing it into the fold." Um, yeah...

Decade ago, I wouldn't have given this too much thought, and would have regarded Taiwan and Hong Kong as part of China without any questions, but nowadays, I'm not so sure. Taiwan as a country was founded by Chang Kaishek's nationalists after losing the war against Mao and his communists, and it's had over half a century to develop its own national identity. Obviously Taiwan has got strategic value for the US, but while I'm perfectly willing to criticize US foreign policy, I can't claim that China is any better right now. I'm actually more on the side of Taiwan gaining independent statehood, but as so few countries recognise it, I don't see that happening anytime soon. But on the other, polls conducted in Taiwan show that the majority of its people see themselves as Taiwanese rather than Chinese.

I'm also curious as to the endgame for Hong Kong. The "one country, two systems" model is set to expire in 2047, so even if the protests in HK had their wishes granted, what's the endgame for Hong Kong's people. Unless something changes within the next few decades, they're fated to be fully integrated into the PRC regardless.

As a general rule, I think self-determination can be a positive step in solving these issues, but of course, I'm hardly qualified to talk about the subject with any significant level of authority. And yes, that does include places like Palestine, Catalonia, Kashmir, and indigenous groups in various countries, Australia included. But focusing specifically on these two territories/countries/whatever, the question is what you think will happen, and what should happen?

 

[Leg End]

This could arguably fit into the "Nazi China" thread, but I feel these issues can be discussed in relative isolation.

I'd even be on the side that they should be discussed in isolation. That, and the thread is rather different in subject matter as-is. Was actually planning to make this thread myself, but guess you beat me to the punch.

So, chances are most of you are aware of the protests in Hong Kong (protests and counter-protests are being held right now in various Australian cities, mainly by Chinese students), and are also aware of the stand-off between China and Taiwan, the latter not ruling out the use of force in regards to unifying with the latter. And by "unifying," I mean "bringing it into the fold." Um, yeah...

Yeeeaaah, I think we're all seeing that China has no actual desire for Unity, but expanding dominion.

Decade ago, I wouldn't have given this too much thought, and would have regarded Taiwan and Hong Kong as part of China without any questions, but nowadays, I'm not so sure. Taiwan as a country was founded by Chang Kaishek's nationalists after losing the war against Mao and his communists, and it's had over half a century to develop its own national identity. Obviously Taiwan has got strategic value for the US, but while I'm perfectly willing to criticize US foreign policy, I can't claim that China is any better right now. I'm actually more on the side of Taiwan gaining independent statehood, but as so few countries recognise it, I don't see that happening anytime soon.

Upside, you got Donald Trump having a bit of fun with Pooh and the likelihood seems to be getting better than ever.

But on the other, polls conducted in Taiwan show that the majority of its people see themselves as Taiwanese rather than Chinese.

Same in Hong Kong, but you probably knew that. For HK, the numbers weren't always that way, but China's general dickery and displays of totalitarianism pretty much set fire to any chance for most identifying as Chinese nationals.

I'm also curious as to the endgame for Hong Kong. The "one country, two systems" model is set to expire in 2047, so even if the protests in HK had their wishes granted, what's the endgame for Hong Kong's people. Unless something changes within the next few decades, they're fated to be fully integrated into the PRC regardless.

An issue with the agreement itself is that China is certainly not even trying to hide that they're not waiting nearly three more decades. It's part of why you have these protests and record lows of people identifying as Hong Kongers and not Chinese. All things considered, China has wiped it's ass with the agreement and, at least as far as the state is concerned, has considered it null and void.

But focusing specifically on these two territories/countries/whatever, the question is what you think will happen, and what should happen?

Think? I have no idea. I'm beginning to expect Tienanmen 2: Electric Boogaloo and hope at least some of the world finally calling China out on it's shit, and hopefully some support for both Hong Kong and Taiwan truly cutting ties to a murderous state.

Now, what should happen?

 

[Gordon_4_v1legacy]

The British should have extended the lease, or officially made Honk Kong part of the Commonwealth.

 

[Fieldy409_v1legacy]

I think one day China is going to see another civil war and revolution when people are fed up....And its going to be awful for us, consider how much our economies are tied to the fate of China right now. Especially here in Australia where we trade with China a lot.

But if theres no revolutions I think China is going to go to war to take back Taiwan and the world will let them. China can do whatever it wants it seems and the world lets them because of all the money in its trade.

 

[stroopwafel]

I think one day China is going to see another civil war and revolution when people are fed up....And its going to be awful for us, consider how much our economies are tied to the fate of China right now. Especially here in Australia where we trade with China a lot.

But if theres no revolutions I think China is going to go to war to take back Taiwan and the world will let them. China can do whatever it wants it seems and the world lets them because of all the money in its trade.

I don't think so. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would send a shockwave through the U.S., Japanese and South-Korean alliance in the Pacific that is already on high alert b/c of missile tests, joint Russian/Chinese military exercise, the North-Korean issue, the Kurilen islands and cessation of the INF-treaty. China won't ignite that fuse and deliberately end their economic expansion by turning it's trading partners against it and become a liability issue. Not to mention the retalitory response such an offensive would provoke. China has absolutely nothing to gain from an invasion of Taiwan.

Even with the riots in Hong Kong the Chinese are very reluctant to interfere. They even went so far to put the extradition treaty on hold hoping to placate the protesters and now that they want Carrie Lam gone in open defiance of the Chinese government they still prioritize the prevention of damage against their economic relations despite the risk that the protests undermine Chinese authority. I don't think they'll interfere until they consider it a security issue but it's obvious by now the Chinese intent definitely isn't to incite conflict or subjugate HK through military force. And we're talking about a totalitarian state here, which gives you an impression of the interests at stake.

 

[Silent Protagonist]

Supposedly China is increasingly concerned with the ideas from these places such as "communism may not be the best thing ever" and "you should be allowed to criticize your leaders" spreading among its citizens and leading to general unrest and maybe even an actual challenge to the party's authority. They have to cut them off which they won't do because of money or bring their boot down to suppress these ideas like they do in the mainland which they won't do because of WW3 and money. They so far have opted to play the long game of gradually wearing these places down while avoiding escalation, but that may not be viable much longer if unrest spreads from these leaks in their propaganda and info suppression machine

 

[Trunkage]

The British should have extended the lease, or officially made Honk Kong part of the Commonwealth.

Yeah, that's a no for me. The British took it after the Chinese implemented the criminally unjust rule of banning opium, which the British was feeding the Chinese citizenry. Just so the British could buy tea. Just because it turned out okay, doesn't make up for corruption of the past AND it would have further the Century of Humiliation mythos.

I think one day China is going to see another civil war and revolution when people are fed up....And its going to be awful for us, consider how much our economies are tied to the fate of China right now. Especially here in Australia where we trade with China a lot.

But if theres no revolutions I think China is going to go to war to take back Taiwan and the world will let them. China can do whatever it wants it seems and the world lets them because of all the money in its trade.

China has built up an alliance called the String of Pearls. It encircles India. Why India? There are still erratic border skirmishes (although, if you seen India's border on the Bangladeshi side, you wonder how they maintain it. It's like Swiss cheese.) India keeps attacking Pakistan which is sort of an ally of China. And India has created its own String of Pearls.

I think China could take back Hong Kong. These riots would definitely be a justification if they were ever going to do it. I don't think the world would let them take Taiwan. As for revolution, with 20 different people groups, you'd think it would be easy. But none of these other people groups want to work with others, so the Han Chinese will continue to rule til they change their mind. The Uligers are the prime example, blowing up people to get independence from China has turned all of China against them.

 

[Trunkage]

Supposedly China is increasingly concerned with the ideas from these places such as "communism may not be the best thing ever" and "you should be allowed to criticize your leaders" spreading among its citizens and leading to general unrest and maybe even an actual challenge to the party's authority. They have to cut them off which they won't do because of money or bring their boot down to suppress these ideas like they do in the mainland which they won't do because of WW3 and money. They so far have opted to play the long game of gradually wearing these places down while avoiding escalation, but that may not be viable much longer if unrest spreads from these leaks in their propaganda and info suppression machine

I think this long game is the response to the Cold War. The US dicked around with Communist countries until they fell. China found out a way to dick around with so called Capitalist countries back. Manipulating markets, undercutting business, flooding consumers with products, not floating their currencies and buying out resources. Most of these are standard practice under Capitalism but, for some reason, the US doesn't like it when they aren't doing it. I see it as Karma. The US is reaping what it sowed. I just wish we were left out of it.

But your right, suppression doesn't work forever. They're dicking around has consequences in their own country. But then Trump is trying to suppress the media in the US, and it seems to be working. All you need is a bunch of people who don't question the leader. Both the US and China have those in spades.

 

[Seanchaidh]

Supposedly China is increasingly concerned with the ideas from these places such as "communism may not be the best thing ever" and "you should be allowed to criticize your leaders" spreading among its citizens and leading to general unrest and maybe even an actual challenge to the party's authority.

Also the idea that "communism is the best thing ever and we should do it right now"

 

[Silent Protagonist]

Supposedly China is increasingly concerned with the ideas from these places such as "communism may not be the best thing ever" and "you should be allowed to criticize your leaders" spreading among its citizens and leading to general unrest and maybe even an actual challenge to the party's authority. They have to cut them off which they won't do because of money or bring their boot down to suppress these ideas like they do in the mainland which they won't do because of WW3 and money. They so far have opted to play the long game of gradually wearing these places down while avoiding escalation, but that may not be viable much longer if unrest spreads from these leaks in their propaganda and info suppression machine

I think this long game is the response to the Cold War. The US dicked around with Communist countries until they fell. China found out a way to dick around with so called Capitalist countries back. Manipulating markets, undercutting business, flooding consumers with products, not floating their currencies and buying out resources. Most of these are standard practice under Capitalism but, for some reason, the US doesn't like it when they aren't doing it. I see it as Karma. The US is reaping what it sowed. I just wish we were left out of it.

But your right, suppression doesn't work forever. They're dicking around has consequences in their own country. But then Trump is trying to suppress the media in the US, and it seems to be working. All you need is a bunch of people who don't question the leader. Both the US and China have those in spades.

I don't think the suppression of the media in the US and China are even remotely comparable and to try to pull that kind of whataboutism does a great disservice to the enormity of the suppression of free speech that occurs in China. Trump bad mouths the news outlets he doesn't like in his speeches and on twitter in an attempt to discredit those outlets in the court of public opinion. China has direct control over its news media and actively scrubs the internet of any criticism of the regime or anything potentially adjacent to it. I believe the infamous case of the erasure of Winnie the Pooh has already been referenced in this thread. Australian gamers have long known they can troll Chinese players by typing the right key words in the chat to get them automatically kicked from the multiplayer match by a government afraid their citizens may be exposed to anything negative about the regime. Meanwhile, the US just recently ruled that it is illegal for the president to block journalists on twitter because that would violate the freedom of the press. The level of media suppression isn't even close

 

[CyanCat47_v1legacy]

The British should have extended the lease, or officially made Honk Kong part of the Commonwealth.

The british 'leased' Hong Kong in the age of gunboat diplomacy, when they could threaten any asian power into compliance with impunity through their technological advantage. By the time Deng Xiaoping started negotiating for the return of Hong Kong, army diplomacy would have favoured China, not the UK. Britain loosing its asian dominions was almost certain by 1947, and inevitable after 1956. The UK would not be able to claim Hong kong today, and NATO certainly won't risk nuclear war for Hong Kong if they won't risk it for Crimea. British involvement could only worsen the situation. For the PRC, control of Hong Kong is not optional. The legitimacy of their government has been built on resisting and reversing imperialism for as long as it has existed, and now that China is a nuclear power with a large modern army and a growing navy in the south pacific, they have no real reason to respect the autonomy of HK as nothing can realistically prevent them from asserting their control there

 

[Agema]

The British should have extended the lease, or officially made Honk Kong part of the Commonwealth.

The UK made enquiries about extending the HK lease in the mid-1980s. China was not remotely interested, to the point of making it clear that at the end of the lease period either the UK handed it over peacefully or China was taking it by force.

I'm also curious as to the endgame for Hong Kong. The "one country, two systems" model is set to expire in 2047, so even if the protests in HK had their wishes granted, what's the endgame for Hong Kong's people. Unless something changes within the next few decades, they're fated to be fully integrated into the PRC regardless.

Honestly, I think places like Vietnam and the Philippines can reasonably worry about being "brought into the fold", never mind HK / Taiwan. China's already pretty much claimed the South China Sea up to the coasts of all the other countries, and attempted to unilaterally claim islands everyone else thinks are Japan's.

HK is stuffed in the medium term. Upon being merged back into China, it was something like 20% of the Chinese economy. Now it's about 5%, due not only to China's general growth and development, but that China has been directed financial stuff to Shanghai, I suspect deliberately to shift HK's power and influence to a more... let's say "loyal"... city. Eventually it's going to be easy enough to risk damaging HK to bring it into line with minimal economic cost.

Taiwan is clearly diverging from China and really should be independent. Realistically, China's not going to ever accept that. Without vigorous military support (chiefly the USA currently, but increasingly dependent on other Pacific Rim countries like SK, Japan, Vietnam) I suspect Taiwan will be taken over sooner or later.

 

[Fieldy409_v1legacy]

I think one day China is going to see another civil war and revolution when people are fed up....And its going to be awful for us, consider how much our economies are tied to the fate of China right now. Especially here in Australia where we trade with China a lot.

But if theres no revolutions I think China is going to go to war to take back Taiwan and the world will let them. China can do whatever it wants it seems and the world lets them because of all the money in its trade.

I don't think so. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would send a shockwave through the U.S., Japanese and South-Korean alliance in the Pacific that is already on high alert b/c of missile tests, joint Russian/Chinese military exercise, the North-Korean issue, the Kurilen islands and cessation of the INF-treaty. China won't ignite that fuse and deliberately end their economic expansion by turning it's trading partners against it and become a liability issue. Not to mention the retalitory response such an offensive would provoke. China has absolutely nothing to gain from an invasion of Taiwan.

Even with the riots in Hong Kong the Chinese are very reluctant to interfere. They even went so far to put the extradition treaty on hold hoping to placate the protesters and now that they want Carrie Lam gone in open defiance of the Chinese government they still prioritize the prevention of damage against their economic relations despite the risk that the protests undermine Chinese authority. I don't think they'll interfere until they consider it a security issue but it's obvious by now the Chinese intent definitely isn't to incite conflict or subjugate HK through military force. And we're talking about a totalitarian state here, which gives you an impression of the interests at stake.

China has things to gain other than profit, the saving of face and the silencing of any dissenting ideas for other systems of government coming into China.

China is not solely motivated by profit especially since the government owns so many of the for profit organisations.

Thinking they won't do things that cost them money is our capitalist Western way of thinking. Power is more important to them and since they can control the businesses there's always some money to be made. Look at how much money they are willing to throw away banning goods like Hollywood movies that could be sold in their country for profit because it undermines their regime.

The West cares about maximum profit, China doesn't and going to war with China so I think that the world powers will let them get away with taking Taiwan for fear of boycotts but China won't care if boycotts come in return as long as they stay in power.

That's what I think anyway. Maybe I'm wrong, hopefully I'm wrong.