South African Economy

Trunkage

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So, I was having a conversation with a Conservative the other day. She was stating that after Mandela became president, the economy of South Africa tanked. I showed her the GDP and that it was flat during his years, but rose after he left. I also pointed there was some violence and redistribution of farms.

She didn't talk about the The Great White Replacement that Paul Watson or Black Pigeon goes on about. But it sounded similar. But I didn't really have more information than what I stated as I don't know much about South Africa. Anyone around that can show me information of their progress in the last quarter century?
 

Sneed's SeednFeed

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Not to be dismissive, but a good option is to go through wikipedia and read through the sources for that article and to shop around for a book on the topic by a credible author, I wouldn't expect too much from these forums (least of all because of their scale).

Off the cuff one could say that SA's economy has been steadily going as it's experiencing the years following a pretty big transitional stage. Corruption is rife within the ANC, and unions put immense pressure on labour standards, since they were also a key part in anti-apartheid activism (and still are). Consequently, since SA's economy was built up with a socially demarcated underclass that could be indefinitely exploited for cheap labour in what is a particularly resource rich region, and a regime that was more or less propped by former colonial powers (though don't let anyone tell you that Maggie and everyone else thought Mandela a terrorist and were otherwise conveniently complacent with Botha's regime because of the edge it proided them in trade - and they didn't want SA to fall to the soviets in case of a revolution), the impetus on the ANC is now to put in policies that deal with both the new demands of public education (soft segregation is still a problem and wealthy areas are still exclusively white so social mobility is a massive problem - the disparity between ethnic groups means that the process to a new middle class that's capable in its productive and consumptive capacity isn't easy) and affirmative action policies bent on bridging the apartheid gap.

Add to this, the brain drain in the 90s, the really large unemployment rate (though also stratified for race and entailed in brain-drain, companies being pressured by unions to pay higher salaries becoming reluctant to hire and the presence of ongoing racism in the hiring process met with an ineffectual or dismissive affirmative action program) of about 25% and the fact that the financial crisis seriously impacted SA's ability to export would make me think that it's basically a mess that has been in the process of an attempt to fix for quite some time. I can't imagine that the outbreak would help them much in this regard. Though from what I can also recall investment-wise it's been doing fine, just that the wealth continues to circulate much in the same hands as it did during apartheid, which is obviously a big issue.

Those are my two cents on it.
 

meiam

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To add to the above, SA corruption is more than a problem of money not going where it needs to go, it also affect public utility. The electricity state own utility (ESKOM) is incredibly indebted and severely under capacity and this greatly reduce SA potential (it's hard to justify building a plant when you don't know if you'll have electricity most of the days and need diesel generator just to keep the light on).

The previous president, Jacob Zuma (2007-2017), was extraordinarily corrupt. The ANC recently replaced him, but the replacement barely managed to get enough vote to do so (iirc the next closet contender was Zuma wife who was widely expected to shield him from corruption probe). His replacement, Cyril Ramaphosa, is seen as pretty clean, but he can't get anything done since the ANC is stopping any serious reform attempt. At the same time the ANC is almost impossible to replace politically since they still are seen as the group who stopped apartheid. The other party are either seen as too white or are very radical, demanding seizure of white land/property, similar to what happened in Zimbabwe (and you can look up that to see how disastrous of a policy that was). Covid is not going to help this situation at all.

SA is a interesting case, it was and still is the largest economy south of the sahara, so aparthied did some things that the rest of africa is having a hard time repeating, but it's paying the price for this right now and it's preventing it from moving forward. I think the biggest lesson to draw from it is that racial policy don't work, apartheid favored white and that left a massive problem for the futur generation, now the ANC is favouring black and incompetent people are getting job they should never have obtained in the first place. As an asside, there have been more and more case of racial profiling and rioting as the economy contracted, but not in the white vs black sense but in the south african vs other african sense, racism can exist even without difference in skin colour.
 

Sneed's SeednFeed

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The other party are either seen as too white or are very radical, demanding seizure of white land/property, similar to what happened in Zimbabwe (and you can look up that to see how disastrous of a policy that was).
Land seizure in itself isn't bad, depending on how its done, to what ends and how its integrated into the economic model. I like to wheel out Rwanda as an example of a nation that practiced that (in their case, due to ethnic strife as reparations and for infrastructure developments) and did it succesfully. As for Zimbabwe, that example is always misconstrued - the British government played a massive hand in the way land seizures were done, and the reason that they increased in the 2000s was because Blair cut subsidies for recompensation of land reform, which meant that Mugabe lost his patience and was stabbed in the back by the British. Sources below:



I understand the scepticism for it given the situation in South Africa - the ANC is corrupt, and rural strife is intense, but it's not impossible. It just requires structures and policies that are simply not in place yet.
 

meiam

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You definetly can do proper land/propeties seizure, but this would require establishing that the land was inappropriately obtained in the first place (otherwise it's just state sanctioned theft) and find competent people to take it over (otherwise the land/properties goes into dis/misuse and the economy/worker suffer). This is definetly not something that the ANC or EFF are in a position to do currently.
 

Sneed's SeednFeed

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You definetly can do proper land/propeties seizure, but this would require establishing that the land was inappropriately obtained in the first place (otherwise it's just state sanctioned theft) and find competent people to take it over (otherwise the land/properties goes into dis/misuse and the economy/worker suffer). This is definetly not something that the ANC or EFF are in a position to do currently.
I mean, the land doesn't belong to the settlers, the cities and the small settlements do so there is a precedent for land equity. Though of course, the problem is the leadership and that it requires a multi-pronged approach that would tackle the systemic issues beyond simple recompensation (or another solution - state enterprises, though that would require massive trust which is a pipe dream by this point). The whole thing really is a pipe dream until there's competent leadership.
 

Dreiko

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As long as the land is handed out to party-friendly folk and not by lottery to any skilled farmer that can actually harness it (white or black), you can never do proper land seizures.


Either way, even if you say the land itself belongs to the natives, the thing built on top of it sure doesn't. You can just have the farmers pay rent or something. it's not like if the conquerors didn't get there that you'd have the same exact facilities, only with a local running them, right?
 

Saint of M

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I can't tell you much about South Africa's economy, but I can say finding proof is going to be difficult because some people are stuck in their ways they wouldn't beleive the truth if latched onto their face like a lamprey.

I have know people that beleived every conspiracy theory out there ranging from floride in water to Ruby Ridge.
I knew people that woulnd't have their kids vacinated because of governmeant survelance and causing autism bull.
ANd I have a couple of relatives that are convinced that every spree shooting in America has been done by the Liberals.
And while I have enjoyed their company, and even called a few friends, whenever they spew this I can feel my braincells dying one by one.
Stemcells, Global Warming, Trump's actual credentials, it dosn't matter.

I hope this isn't the case with who you had this conversation with, OP, but sometimes people will reject the truth because their story is better to them.

Sometimes its like the Bible says, don't put pearls before swine.
 

Sneed's SeednFeed

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As long as the land is handed out to party-friendly folk and not by lottery to any skilled farmer that can actually harness it (white or black), you can never do proper land seizures.


Either way, even if you say the land itself belongs to the natives, the thing built on top of it sure doesn't. You can just have the farmers pay rent or something. it's not like if the conquerors didn't get there that you'd have the same exact facilities, only with a local running them, right?
Right except that disproportionately the education when it comes to running farms is skewed white in SA, so the lottery would be purely performative. Land reform needs to come hand in hand with robust public education for the sake of general state-led argicultural reform if SA ever wants to cast off the baggage and shackles of apartheid economics. The stuff built on top was built by the natives' hands and was bankrolled off of their exploitation by the colonial settlers, and at the end of the day its a question of getting the right tools to the right people -- there isn't a total absence of competent black farmers, the skew is just disproportionately towards whites. Balancing that skill gap takes time, and as for development - I don't think anyone presupposes that without the French, the Italians or the British Northern Africa would've been a barren wasteland. Same goes for East Africa without Arab influence, and for an unrelated example -- Japanese modernisation is a good example that purely trade-orienatated relationships without the same degree of colonial terrorism that Southern Africa was subjected for its resources can produce significantly better results when it comes to development if it is done by the natives. Japan at the beginning of the 1800s was totally backwards, significantly less developed than most European countries, yet at the end of the 1900s it became an industrial powerhouse.
 

Dreiko

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Right except that disproportionately the education when it comes to running farms is skewed white in SA, so the lottery would be purely performative. Land reform needs to come hand in hand with robust public education for the sake of general state-led argicultural reform if SA ever wants to cast off the baggage and shackles of apartheid economics. The stuff built on top was built by the natives' hands and was bankrolled off of their exploitation by the colonial settlers, and at the end of the day its a question of getting the right tools to the right people -- there isn't a total absence of competent black farmers, the skew is just disproportionately towards whites. Balancing that skill gap takes time, and as for development - I don't think anyone presupposes that without the French, the Italians or the British Northern Africa would've been a barren wasteland. Same goes for East Africa without Arab influence, and for an unrelated example -- Japanese modernisation is a good example that purely trade-orienatated relationships without the same degree of colonial terrorism that Southern Africa was subjected for its resources can produce significantly better results when it comes to development if it is done by the natives. Japan at the beginning of the 1800s was totally backwards, significantly less developed than most European countries, yet at the end of the 1900s it became an industrial powerhouse.
How does handing off land to uneducated party affiliates fix this? Isn't that just gonna cause starvation due to mismanaged farms?

You can just tax the farmers, use the taxes to educate the uneducated in farming, then slowly integrate them in the management of the farms as they become befitting of such a responsibility. Merely being born in a land doesn't make you befitting of using technognosis that others developed. Just because it's your land it doesn't mean that it's your people who labored to invent the technologies that make your land be worth anything.


Japan was already advanced enough to be at a place where it could keep up with the more advanced westerners. They were already making steel before they ever saw a Jesuit ship. Africa wasn't at the point to be able to harness trade in a similar way.
 

Sneed's SeednFeed

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How does handing off land to uneducated party affiliates fix this? Isn't that just gonna cause starvation due to mismanaged farms?

You can just tax the farmers, use the taxes to educate the uneducated in farming, then slowly integrate them in the management of the farms as they become befitting of such a responsibility. Merely being born in a land doesn't make you befitting of using technognosis that others developed. Just because it's your land it doesn't mean that it's your people who labored to invent the technologies that make your land be worth anything.

Japan was already advanced enough to be at a place where it could keep up with the more advanced westerners. They were already making steel before they ever saw a Jesuit ship. Africa wasn't at the point to be able to harness trade in a similar way.
Didn't claim the first point. Please re-read my post.

Slow integration and taxing is the current course, and the problem is that again, it's being embezzled by the ANC. Slow integration also means that the disproportional concentration of wealth is still in the hands of the white minority, and affirmative action programs often just don't work in SA (again as discussed above). The white settlers used black labour to construct the majority of SA, to have them work in their farms, to build, etc. etc. They have just as much right to what was developed on the land as the land itself. As for who laboured to invent the technologies, it was the sum of hundreds and thousands of years of development across cultures across the world -- no one is the sole embodiment or wielder of technology in this sense, it is always collaborative. South Africa still entailed a development and cooperation process to work on the land, to work with the natives, and that trust was betrayed by the colonisers when they decided to start exploiting the population for all that it was worth. We don't know how much it would have developed by its own, but we have enough historical analogues of mutually beneficial cooperation, not exploitation, that has led to fruitful development.

And to return to the point - South African tribes also had access to steel, what's your point? Japan was using steel, bows and arrows in an age where Napoleonic tactics were the go-to, using complex defensive and offensive strategies with a mix of chemically developed weapons that was centuries ahead. The Japanese economic model was stagnant and still relied on ironclad feudal relations to function, whilst literally shutting themselves off to the outside world for centuries. I'd be careful about saying 'Africa' as well and I don't want to reiterate the exceptions such as Ethiopia and Egypt.
 

Trunkage

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How does handing off land to uneducated party affiliates fix this? Isn't that just gonna cause starvation due to mismanaged farms?

You can just tax the farmers, use the taxes to educate the uneducated in farming, then slowly integrate them in the management of the farms as they become befitting of such a responsibility. Merely being born in a land doesn't make you befitting of using technognosis that others developed. Just because it's your land it doesn't mean that it's your people who labored to invent the technologies that make your land be worth anything.


Japan was already advanced enough to be at a place where it could keep up with the more advanced westerners. They were already making steel before they ever saw a Jesuit ship. Africa wasn't at the point to be able to harness trade in a similar way.
So... because the Africans weren't as advanced, the Westerners did right by them?
 

Godzillarich(aka tf2godz)

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South Africa is still reeling from the pain of apartheid. The same way America still reeling from slavery, the Civil War, and the Jim Crow era of their past and that is 200-70 years ago, compared to it only being 30 years since South Africa apartheid era. It should be noted despite its troubles South Africa is still a success story in the sense that it didn't end in a painful Civil War or end in the whites being horribly discriminated or deported. Mandela is seen as a great leader because he managed to make the transition very peaceful. It has problems still but it's not Zimbabwe bad.
 
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