I didn't say it had to be rigged in one way. Wouldn't get money from the press coverage? Maybe he was wrong in other years because they wanted this one to seem genuine.stinkychops said:No it isn't. He's been wrong in other years, why would they rig this one? Why and how would they rig it, with no funds to gain? Do you expect journalists to be so stupid that they wouldn't notice if one thing couldn't be opened? Its irrational to think it is rigged, and if it is more likely I'd like evidence.Jaranja said:Because I don't think you should place your trust in something like that. It's much more probable that it was rigged than the octopus getting all of them correct with an 8% chance.stinkychops said:You seem to have misrepresented my entire argument with astounding tenacity. Clearly that's not logical, it is in fact, not logical to believe any theory put forward or even believe in his existance without seeing him yourself/having a credible source. I spoke of rationality and I never suggested he can tell the future. What I am saying, is that its more likely/rational that he guessed right with an 8% chance, than that its all rigged/made up.Jaranja said:Yeah, because believe that an octopus can tell the future is logical.stinkychops said:I was wondering how to spell it. Occams razor says the least number of assumptions is the most logical answer. It requires no assumptions (maybe 1) to accept that the octopus guessed right, suggesting it was rigged requires several assumptions and thus is irrational.Jaranja said:Occam's razor states that the most simple answer is usually the right one. Usually. I can't trust that it's not rigged, especially something as outlandish as that.stinkychops said:I'm not trusting him, I'm trusting that it wasn't rigged, seeing as all the other years he didn't get it perfect. Netherlands were undefeated, Spain had a loss. Occolms razor, its easier to believe it was chance.Jaranja said:Spain were always the favourites, right from the beginning.stinkychops said:They didn't know who would win, I'm under the impression Netherlands were the favourites. So why would they bet on Spain? Its just cool and unlikely, christ, not everything has to be trickery.Jaranja said:I'm still 90% sure that they could easily make the octopus go for one or the other.stinkychops said:The octopus did not make any judgements based on wether one team was better on the other, he went for oysters. Thus it is a 50/50 chance each time, and an ~8% chance overall.Jaranja said:Not with some of the teams playing.stinkychops said:He had a 8% chance of being right throughout all of them. It is impressive.Jaranja said:Oh yeah, lucky octopus! I think we should put him on Deal or no deal, see how he fares. If he wins all the money, then yeah psychic.
Guessing with 1/2 odds isn't that hard.
Also, you're trusting a so-called psychic octopus?
Why, pray tell, is it so unacceptable that something unusual occurred?