The Democratic Primary is Upon Us! - Biden is the Presumptive Nominee

Tireseas_v1legacy

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Last updated: 10:38 PST 8 April 2020

UPDATE: Sanders has dropped out. Biden is the presumptive nominee. This OP will not be updated further.

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The Democratic Presidential Primary is in full swing the following candidates remain in the race along with their estimated delegate totals ( Washington Post [https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/01/17/democratic-primary-delegates/?arc404=true]):

(Amount needed to secure the nomination: 1991)

[HEADING=3]Joe Biden - 1,128 Estimated national delegates pledged[/HEADING]

[HEADING=2]Drop outs since the Primaries began[/HEADING]

Andrew Yang - Dropped out February 11 citing inadequate support and resources. He has endorsed Joe Biden

Michael Bennet - Dropped out February 11 citing a failure to make the top three or four in Iowa or New Hampshire

Deval Patrick - Dropped out February 12 citing lack of support in Iowa or New Hampshire.

Tom Steyer - dropped out the February 29 following the South Carolina primary citing the inability to secure the nomination.

Pete Buttigieg - Dropped out March 1 following the South Carolina Primary. He has 26 pledged delegates. He has endorsed Joe Biden.

Amy Klobuchar - Dropped out March 2 following the South Carolina Primary. She has 7 pledged delegates. She has endorsed Joe Biden.

Michael Bloomberg - Dropped out March 4 following poor showings in Super Tuesday contests. He has 23 pledged delegates. He has endorsed Joe Biden.

Elizabeth Warren - Dropped out March 5 citing a lack of a path to the nomination. She has 45 pledged delegates.

Tulsi Gabbard - Dropped out March 19. She has 2 pledged delegates

Bernie Sanders - Dropped out citing the COVID-19 Pandemic crisis, stating "I cannot in good conscience continue to mount a campaign that cannot win and which would interfere in the important work required of all of us in this difficult hour." He has 846 pledged delegates

Let the Primary Commence!

[HEADING=1]Voting Dates/Results:[/HEADING]


[HEADING=3]February 3[/HEADING]
Iowa Caucuses (100% reporting)

[Note: Results are in the process of being recanvassed and may change]

Awaiting national delegate totals. State Delegate Equivalent (SDE) percentages below:

Buttigieg 26.2%
Sanders 26.1%
Warren 18.0%
Biden 15.8%
Klobuchar 12.3%
Yang 1%

[HEADING=3]February 11[/HEADING]
New Hampshire Primary (100% Precincts reporting)

Sanders 25.6% - 9 National Delegates
Buttigieg 24.3% - 9
Klobuchar 19.7% - 6
Warren 9.2%
Biden 8.4%
Steyer 3.6%
Gabbard 3.3%
Yang 2.8%

[HEADING=3]February 22[/HEADING]
Nevada Caucuses (100% of precincts reporting)

Sanders 46.8% - 24 National Delegate equivalents
Biden 20.2% - 9
Buttigieg 14.3% - 3
Warren 9.7%
Steyer 4.7%
Klobuchar 4.2%

[HEADING=3]February 29[/HEADING]
South Carolina Primary (100% of precincts reporting)

Biden 48.4% - 38 National Delegate equivalents
Sanders 19.9% - 15
Steyer 11.3%
Buttigieg 8.2% - 3
Warren 7.1%
Klobuchar 3.1%



[HEADING=3]March 3 - Super Tuesday[/HEADING]
Alabama Primary (99% reporting)

Biden 63.2% - 24 National Delegate equivalents
Sanders 19.9% - 3
Bloomberg 11.7%
Warren 5.7%
Bennet 0.5%

American Samoa Caucuses (100% reporting)

Bloomberg 49.9% - 4 National Delegate equivalents
Gabbard 29.3% - 1
Sanders 10.5%
Biden 8.8%
Warren 1.4%

Arkansas Primary (93.7% reporting)

Biden 40.5% - 7 National Delegate equivalents
Sanders 22.4% - 4
Bloomberg 16.7% - 1
Warren 10.0%
Buttigieg 3.4%

California Primary (86.8% reporting)

Sanders 33.6% - 48 National Delegate equivalents
Biden 24.9% - 27
Bloomberg 14.37%
Warren 12.0%
Buttigieg 6.3%

Colorado Primary (81.8% reporting)

Sanders 36.2% - 11 National Delegate equivalents
Biden 23.2% - 3
Bloomberg 20.8% - 3
Warren 17.2%
Gabbard 1.1%

Results to be announced

Maine Primary (80.4% reporting)

Biden 33.9% - 7 National Delegate equivalents
Sanders 32.9% - 7
Warren 15.9%
Bloomberg 12.0%
Buttigieg 2.1%

Massachusetts Primary (93.4% reporting)

Biden 33.4% - 24 National Delegate equivalents
Sanders 26.7% - 18
Warren 21.6% - 9
Bloomberg 11.7%
Buttigieg 2.6%

Minnesota Primary (99.3% reporting)

Biden 38.6% - 20 National Delegate equivalents
Sanders 29.9% - 11
Warren 15.4%
Bloomberg 8.3%
Buttigieg 5.6%

North Carolina Primary (100% reporting)

Biden 43.0% - 35 National Delegate equivalents
Sanders 24.1% - 15
Bloomberg 13.0%
Warren 10.5%
Buttigieg 3.3%

Oklahoma Primary (97.0% reporting)

Biden 38.7% - 11 National Delegate equivalents
Sanders 25.4% - 6
Bloomberg 13.9%
Warren 13.4%
Klobuchar 2.2%

Tennessee Primary (100% reporting)

Biden 41.7% - 21 National Delegate equivalents
Sanders 24.9% - 10
Bloomberg 15.5%
Warren 10.4%
Buttigieg 3.3%

Texas Primary (99.5% reporting)

Biden 34.1% - 20 National Delegate equivalents
Sanders 29.9% - 20
Bloomberg 14.8%
Warren 11.3%
Buttigieg 4.0%

Utah Primary (32.4% reporting)

Sanders 34.6% - 3 National Delegate equivalents
Biden 17.1%
Bloomberg 16.9%
Warren 15.4%
Buttigieg 9.9%

Vermont Primary (100% reporting)

Senders 50.7% - 8 National Delegate equivalents
Biden 22.0% - 4
Warren 12.6%
Bloomberg 9.4%
Buttigieg 2.4%

Virginia Primary (100% reporting)

Biden 53.3% - 49 National Delegate equivalents
Sanders 23.1% - 19
Warren 10.8% - 1
Bloomberg 9.7%
Gabbard 0.9%

[HEADING=3]March 10[/HEADING]

Idaho Primary (95.8% reporting)

Biden 48.9% - 10 National Delegate equivalents
Sanders 42.4% - 8
Warren 2.7%
Bloomberg 2.4%
Gabbard 1.3%

Michigan Primary (99.9% reporting)

Biden 52.9% - 53 National Delegate equivalents
Sanders 36.4% - 39
Bloomberg 4.6%
Warren 1.6%
Buttigieg 1.4%

Mississippi Primary (98.1% reporting)

Biden 81.0% - 30 National Delegate equivalents
Sanders 14.8%
Bloomberg 2.4%
Warren 0.5%
Gabbard 0.4%

Missouri Primary (99.5% reporting)

Biden 60.1% - 32 National Delegate equivalents
Sanders 34.6% - 18
Bloomberg 1.5%
Warren 1.2%
Gabbard 0.7%

North Dakota Primary (100% reporting)

Sanders 53.3% - 8 National Delegate equivalents
Biden 39.8% - 6
Warren 2.5%
Klobuchar 1.5%
Buttigieg 1.1%

Washington Primary (Mail-in count in progress)

Sanders 32.7% - TBD National Delegate equivalents
Biden 32.5% - TBD
Warren 12.3%
Bloomberg 11.1%
Buttigieg 5.8%



[HEADING=3]March 14[/HEADING]

Northern Marianas Islands Caucus
Sanders 63% - 4 National Delegate Equivalents
Biden 36% - 2

[HEADING=3]March 17[/HEADING]

Arizona Primary (76.6% reporting)

Biden 43.4% - 12 National Delegate equivalents
Sanders 31.5% - 9
Bloomberg 10.5%
Warren 6.5%
Buttigieg 4.6%

Florida Primary (99.2% reporting)

Biden 61.91% - 86 National Delegate equivalents
Sanders 22.8% - 27
Bloomberg 8.4%
Buttigieg 2.3%
Warren 1.9%

Illinois Primary (91.1% reporting)

Biden 59.4%% - 49 National Delegate equivalents
Sanders 35.7% - 25
Bloomberg 1.5%
Warren 1.4%
Buttigieg 0.6%

Primary delayed by Order of the Governor [https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/16/ohio-governor-recommends-postponing-tuesdays-primary-132340]



[HEADING=3]March 24[/HEADING]

postponed to May 19, 2020

[HEADING=3]March 29[/HEADING]

Postponed to April 26, 2020

[HEADING=3]April 4[/HEADING]

Results to be announced

Results to be announced

Results to be announced

Results to be announced

[HEADING=3]April 7[/HEADING]

Results to be announced

[HEADING=3]April 28[/HEADING]

Results to be announced

Results to be announced

Results to be announced

Results to be announced

Results to be announced

Results to be announced

[HEADING=3]May 2[/HEADING]

Results to be announced

Results to be announced

[HEADING=3]May 5[/HEADING]

Results to be announced

[HEADING=3]May 12[/HEADING]

Results to be announced

Results to be announced

[HEADING=3]May 19[/HEADING]

Results to be announced

Results to be announced

[HEADING=3]June 2[/HEADING]

Results to be announced

Results to be announced

Results to be announced

Results to be announced

Results to be announced

[HEADING=3]June 6[/HEADING]

Results to be announced


[HEADING=2]Some Post-Primary dates to remember[/HEADING]

[h4]July 13-16: The Democratic National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin[/h4]

[h4]August 24-27: the Republican National Convention in Charlotte, North Carolina[/h4]

[h4]September 29: the First Presidential Debate in South Bend, Indiana[/h4]

[h4]October 7: the Vice Presidential Debate in Salt Lake City, Utah[/h4]

[h4]October 15: the Second Presidential Debate in Ann Arbor, Michigan[/h4]

[h4]October 22: the Third Presidential Debate in Nashville, Tennessee[/h4]

[HEADING=1]November 3rd, 2020: The 2020 US General Election[/HEADING]

Remember to Register to Vote [https://vote.gov/]
 

Seanchaidh

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Bernie Sanders is going to win Iowa, then New Hampshire, then Nevada, and since he won those three he'll also win South Carolina because the 'electability' myth surrounding Joe Biden will have by then evaporated. Then he's going to win Vermont and California and various other states on Super Tuesday. The mainstream media and other establishment groups will make it obscenely ugly, exposing themselves as hypocrites when it comes to "blue no matter who". Sanders will ultimately win at least a plurality of the delegates, but if it's not a majority the DNC will attempt to steal it at the convention with superdelegates. They might attempt to steal it in various other ways as well.

Here's a question: will the newsmedia count superdelegates in their reports of primary results even though they can't vote in the first round? Can't wait to find out.
 

tstorm823

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Seanchaidh said:
and since he won those three he'll also win South Carolina because the 'electability' myth surrounding Joe Biden will have by then evaporated.
Any thoughts on the Bloomberg strategy to ignore the early primary states, hope for Biden to fall apart, and then swoop in as the electability candidate in the states with the most Democrats?
 

Trunkage

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tstorm823 said:
Seanchaidh said:
and since he won those three he'll also win South Carolina because the 'electability' myth surrounding Joe Biden will have by then evaporated.
Any thoughts on the Bloomberg strategy to ignore the early primary states, hope for Biden to fall apart, and then swoop in as the electability candidate in the states with the most Democrats?
Ignoring states sure made Hillary more electable
 

Seanchaidh

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tstorm823 said:
Seanchaidh said:
and since he won those three he'll also win South Carolina because the 'electability' myth surrounding Joe Biden will have by then evaporated.
Any thoughts on the Bloomberg strategy to ignore the early primary states, hope for Biden to fall apart, and then swoop in as the electability candidate in the states with the most Democrats?
Assuming things play out like I said, I think it's a rather foolish thing to do, especially this election cycle. Lots of people are Biden with Sanders as their second choice because they have been constantly told by the media think that Biden is electable but they like what Sanders says. Those people aren't going to switch to Bloomberg after Bernie wins two or more states out of four and demonstrates a wider popularity than he's been getting credit for.

If Biden was the only candidate other than Bloomberg, and Bloomberg's message was mostly anti-Biden then it might make more sense, perhaps. It's very strange to just cede momentum like that, though.

There is of course the question of what Bloomberg is actually intending by this presidential run.

[tweet t="https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1222224189454782464"]

If he's merely in it to try to deny Sanders a majority of delegates, it's possible his being in the race is counterproductive as it looks very much like he's just trying to buy the nomination, and Sanders vs. billionaires plays to the strengths of Sanders.

That last part may be why Steyer has been publicly nice to Sanders rather than combative:

[tweet t="https://twitter.com/TomSteyer/status/1219711538820304896"]

Other theories are that Steyer is simply spending millions on politics fantasy camp, or even that he genuinely is repentant of being an oil magnate. But I digress...

Either way, I think most Americans are going to be looking with side-eye at Bloomberg's claim that he doesn't take any special interest money. The guy is himself a walking, talking special interest. And not even a good kind of special interest like a union.
 

Marik2

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I'm crossing my fingers for Andrew Yang. I'd like to believe the top 4 will be Biden, Warren, Sanders, and Yang.
 

Tireseas_v1legacy

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trunkage said:
tstorm823 said:
Seanchaidh said:
and since he won those three he'll also win South Carolina because the 'electability' myth surrounding Joe Biden will have by then evaporated.
Any thoughts on the Bloomberg strategy to ignore the early primary states, hope for Biden to fall apart, and then swoop in as the electability candidate in the states with the most Democrats?
Ignoring states sure made Hillary more electable
And ignoring South Carolina and most of the southern contests [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries] made it near-impossible for Sanders to win in 2016. Candidates skip states at their peril and it looks like Sanders took that to heart as far as I can tell from his current campaign approach.

Every four years, at least one candidate thinks they can skip the early primaries and every year, like clockwork, they crash and burn hard. Marco Rubio tried it in 2016, Rick Perry in 2012, Rudy "9/11" Gulliani in 2008, etc. Can someone theoretically make it work? Theoretically yes, there's more than enough delegates after the initial few states to have at least a plurality, and if the top candidates split the early states enough, that path becomes a bit easier. But the problem is always the problem of "winning begets winning" in primary contests (winning being top three in the early contests with small vote differences). Early wins increase name recognition, fundraising, and volunteering, and are likely to reduce resistance to of future voters switching support from non-winning candidates to winning candidates. So a candidate that tries to skip the first few contests essentially has to grow their primary base at a time where it is most likely to collapse.
 

Overhead

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As a godless European socialist vegan my view/ranking of the candidates is:

1) Bernie Sanders: The only halfway decent candidate supporting actually useful policies and change for the USA.

2) Elizabeth Warren: There is a massive gap between 1) and 2) in my rankings and being 2nd should not be viewed as an endorsement but rather a commentary on how bad the rest of the field is. Warren just managed to barely stand out as being a bit more progressive without as many horrible positions as the rest.

3) Julian Castro: A fairly ordinary democrat which somehow manages to catapult him above three quarters of the field. Most outstanding feature is that he has a twin brother so the possibilities for a hilarious sit-com style identity swapping scenario are fantastic.

4) Andrew Yang: Weird outsider who due to not being constrained by political norms (or you know, actual experience) has the odd good policy you wouldn't see form a normal candidate. Unfortunately for each good policy he has, he has three stinkers too. Notable for having the first Universal Basic Income idea I actually don't like, as his goes against the key point of UBI and would actually impoverish poor people as it's going to be mutually exclusive with welfare.


5) Joe Biden: If you asked a supercomputer to invent the worst possible democratic candidate that large parts of the media and the centre-right democrats would still tout as electable, it would run its calculations and then print out a picture of Joe Biden. His brain is turning to mush (Like Trump), he has a problematic history with women (Like Trump), he seems to have no stand out policy solutions that distinguish him from any rank and file democrat (Like Hilary!), his record is horrible like on social security which will turn off a lot of voters if he ends up being the candidate and gets beaten round the head with it and overall just seems to be a candidate with lots of weak points and no strong ones aside from being an old white male.

6) Marianne Williamson. Is all over the place policy wise mixing in medicare for all support with anti vaccination conspiracy theory nonsense. Still not the worst candidate.

7) Cory Booker: Right-wing on a lot of issues.

8) Tulsi Gabbard: Hard right on social issues, no thanks.

9) Amy Klobuchar: The candidate aiming to appeal to conservative voters aka the candidate who supports awful policies which will do nothing to win over conservatives anyway.

10) Pete Buttigieg: No real record to judge from and has racist history.

11) Tom Steyer: Kill all billionaires. Is allowed a cigarette and blindfold when he goes up against the wall.

12) Michael Bloomberg: Kill all billionaires and then devour this one's corpse
 

Schadrach

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Seanchaidh said:
Here's a question: will the newsmedia count superdelegates in their reports of primary results even though they can't vote in the first round? Can't wait to find out.
Probably, it allows Sanders to already be 15% of the total delegates behind before the first vote is cast. Making Sanders look like he's already losing by a fair margin helps sell other candidates in the primary.

Marik2 said:
I'm crossing my fingers for Andrew Yang. I'd like to believe the top 4 will be Biden, Warren, Sanders, and Yang.
Unlikely. Hopefully he'll end up in a cabinet position or VP. He needs some actual experience with how the federal government works before he has a real chance at POTUS - otherwise his lack of experience can and will be used effectively against him.
 

Silvanus

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Schadrach said:
He needs some actual experience with how the federal government works before he has a real chance at POTUS
What about the incumbent?
 

Overhead

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Silvanus said:
Schadrach said:
He needs some actual experience with how the federal government works before he has a real chance at POTUS
What about the incumbent?
The incumbent is the prime example of why people without political experience and knowledge shouldn't become President.
 

Seanchaidh

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Overhead said:
Silvanus said:
Schadrach said:
He needs some actual experience with how the federal government works before he has a real chance at POTUS
What about the incumbent?
The incumbent is the prime example of why people without political experience and knowledge shouldn't become President.
I think lack of experience is mostly incidental to why Trump shouldn't be president. And it's also mostly incidental to why Pete Buttigieg shouldn't be president. They're both awful for reasons that go beyond inexperience. As for Andrew Yang, he has some good ideas and bad ideas and it can be unclear which are most important to him; that could be assigned to a lack of experience campaigning, I suppose.
 

Silvanus

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Overhead said:
The incumbent is the prime example of why people without political experience and knowledge shouldn't become President.
I didn't get the impression Shadrach was talking about "shouldn't". I got the impression he was talking about "couldn't".
 

Dreiko_v1legacy

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This new app they're using to count votes is retarded, it's already bugging out and one of the people who created it is an ex Hillary chief of staff (though I guess everyone at the dnc would fit that bill) and partially funded by Butigieg's campaign according to an Intercept journalist's reporting. The company is also called the not at all ominous name of "shadow".

Just use paper ballots x.x.

Seems Bernie is winning despite that though, thank goodness lol.
 

Worgen

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Whatever, just wash your hands.
I've really cooled on Bernie mainly because hes got some really stupid economic takes and his fanbase is full of idiots that are just as big babies today as they were in 2016, what with the "I refuse to vote for anyone besides Bernie, whaaa whaaa whaaaa" let trump be "elected". I'm throwing my support behind Warren, despite her problems. But ultimately in the general, anyone besides trump.
 

Kwak

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Three different sources say a firm called "Shadow" developed the Iowa Dem caucus app. They haven't responded to comment, neither has Iowa Dem Party. The firm was paid by both Nevada & Iowa Democratic Party, disclosures show. Also by Mayor Pete's campaign.
https://twitter.com/lhfang/status/1224561674679488513
The Pete connection could be coincidental, for unrelated work.
Still, super dodgy optics.
 

Dreiko_v1legacy

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Worgen said:
I've really cooled on Bernie mainly because hes got some really stupid economic takes and his fanbase is full of idiots that are just as big babies today as they were in 2016, what with the "I refuse to vote for anyone besides Bernie, whaaa whaaa whaaaa" let trump be "elected". I'm throwing my support behind Warren, despite her problems. But ultimately in the general, anyone besides trump.

More Bernie supporters voted for Hilldog than her supporters voted for Obama back in 2008. You're spouting false narratives.


Kwak said:
Three different sources say a firm called "Shadow" developed the Iowa Dem caucus app. They haven't responded to comment, neither has Iowa Dem Party. The firm was paid by both Nevada & Iowa Democratic Party, disclosures show. Also by Mayor Pete's campaign.
https://twitter.com/lhfang/status/1224561674679488513
The Pete connection could be coincidental, for unrelated work.
Still, super dodgy optics.
An update shows that indeed his campaign paid for the "software rights and subscriptions" of the app according to huffington post.
 

Bedinsis

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Seanchaidh said:
The mainstream media and other establishment groups will make it obscenely ugly, exposing themselves as hypocrites when it comes to "blue no matter who". [---]

Here's a question: will the newsmedia count superdelegates in their reports of primary results even though they can't vote in the first round? Can't wait to find out.
The media hated Trump in the last election. Yet he won. It makes me wonder if media support is that critical, and if in some parts of the electorate media support is actually a mark against a candidate.
 

Worgen

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Whatever, just wash your hands.
Dreiko said:
Worgen said:
I've really cooled on Bernie mainly because hes got some really stupid economic takes and his fanbase is full of idiots that are just as big babies today as they were in 2016, what with the "I refuse to vote for anyone besides Bernie, whaaa whaaa whaaaa" let trump be "elected". I'm throwing my support behind Warren, despite her problems. But ultimately in the general, anyone besides trump.

More Bernie supporters voted for Hilldog than her supporters voted for Obama back in 2008. You're spouting false narratives.
I've heard enough lefties online really pushing the Bernie or bust thing still that it just turns me off his whole deal. Hassan is probably the most annoying, but hes also rather stupid.
 

Worgen

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Bedinsis said:
Seanchaidh said:
The mainstream media and other establishment groups will make it obscenely ugly, exposing themselves as hypocrites when it comes to "blue no matter who". [---]

Here's a question: will the newsmedia count superdelegates in their reports of primary results even though they can't vote in the first round? Can't wait to find out.
The media hated Trump in the last election. Yet he won. It makes me wonder if media support is that critical, and if in some parts of the electorate media support is actually a mark against a candidate.
The media mocked him but hated is the wrong word, till he decided to campaign on pretty much "fuck the media." But he still has a ton of media behind him even though he does like to hate on them a lot. Hes firmly got fox news in his underwear for the most part and talk radio, which is ruled by conservatives.