The failure of the mainstream right

Agema

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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/03/boycott-threats-after-afd-fascist-stands-for-thuringia-premier

So, in short, the candidates for leadership of Thuringia are from the "far right" AfD and the "far left" Die Linke. The free market liberal FDP and mainstream right CDP have decided to sit out.

What I find remarkable about this is to put Die Linke and the AfD on the same footing. AfD is borderline far right. Bjorne Hocke of the AfD, as the article points out, can be legally called a fascist: a court decided it was factually accurate. That gives us some idea of the AfD and the justification behind calling it "far right". One might note also that the AfD has done things like openly state Germany should stop feeling bad about the Nazis and WW2, and maintains open links with far right groups.

But what of Die Linke? Die Linke does have in its predecessor parties a link to the East German communist regime, and represents a coalition of leftists which includes communists. However, a quick scan through their program reveals (bar some radically anti-militaristic foreign policy) a fairly unremarkable social democratic program. They certainly aren't supporting xenophobia, homophobia etc. like AfD.

Across much of the Western world, the failure of the mainstream right has been to effectively endorse the far right by triangulating to cover some of the less objectionable areas of its political ground - nationalism, immigrant-bashing, etc. It shares with the mainstream left a failure to deliver social and economic improvements to millions of their own citizens, which have led to record dissatisfaction and the rise of more extremist parties.

But one of the biggest issues for me is the constant boogeyman refrain of the "far left". There barely is a far left. Bernie Sanders is not far left, nor is Jeremy Corbyn, nor is Die Linke; Syriza took power in Greece and turned out to be fairly unremarkable social democrats as well. The intent is to caricature them as Communists, but they are nowhere near: 30 years ago their policies would have been unremarkable Western mainstream left, we've just moved further right since then. It serves their purposes to make a sort of alterative threat out of smoke to justify themselves, and their cosying up to far right positions. What this is really about is that when push comes to shove, the mainstream right would rather enable fascists and quasi-fascists - than it would let moderate leftists have power.
 

tstorm823

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Let me get this straight: a moderate right-wing candidate won out of third place because the far-right party decided to concede their lack of ability to form a coalition and put their votes behind the moderates before a party literally named "The Left" managed to consolidate support behind them. So the left freaked out and protested until the moderate right-wing candidate resigned. And now there has to be another election where all the moderates are boycotting because the lesson they learned from this is that they're not allowed to win anyway. So now the far right might actually win the election because the only choices people in the middle have are the furthest left-wing option that didn't work with moderates, or the furthest-right option that capitulated.

And your hot take here is that the mainstream right has failed. Wat?
 

Satinavian

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It is complicated. The last election resultet in :

Die Linke : 29 seats (so called far left, but mostly because they are left of the social democrats)
SPD : 8 seats (social democrats)
Gr?ne : 5 seats (green party, leftish on most topics aside from economy )
FDP : 5 seats (traditional liberal party, practically only neoliberals. party of tax cuts, deregulation and little else)
CDU : 21 seats (conservatives, Merkels party)
AfD : 22 seats (hard right)

Now, the CDU likes to paint Die Linke in the same light as the AfD, but mostly to appeal to moderate voters and to harm the leftists. But that is not how politics really is done.

Every relevant party in Germany has ruled out ever cooperating with the AfD. But coalitions with Die Linke are somewhat common and no one complains about it. In fact, in Thuringia itself the last ruling coalition was Die Linke-SPD-Gr?ne and the prime minister was from Die Linke. And that was seen as buissness as usual. And similar things have been done elsewhere.

So far Die Linke has never had a coalition with the CDU or the FDP because their policies are most at odds over all democratic parties that in Germany. So the CDU could paint Die Linke as extremist, but no one ever cared because voters of both parties never wanted a coalition between them.

But the last election in Thuringia posed a problem. If every party ignored the AfD, all possible coalitions needs Die Linke working together with parties that campaigned on completely opposite platforms. As both CDU and FPD basically promised their voters to end the gouvernment of Die Linke (and also to never work with the AfD)

So it looked like either a minority gouvernment or a new election. Everyone believed in the first but CDU and FDP needed to be seen trying to oppose it.

Then the following happened :

So the FDP had a canidate in addition to the candidate of Die Linke and a candidate of the AfD. The FDP candidate got votes from CDU and FDP, the candidate of Die Linke got votes from SPD and Die Gr?ne and Die Linke. But shockingly, the whole AfD did not vote for their own candidate but for the candidate of the FDP which suddenly had a majority and got elected as prime minister.

That was a huge scandal, blame was shifted around. It was obvious that a FDP gouvernment would not get enough votes for any law without being tolerated by AfD which means there was no chance to get a minority gouvernment working without giving the AfD power.

So the newly elected prime minister announced his resignation a day after the election,

But ... what to do next ? It is basically either voting in the Die Linke candidate or reelection. But polls showed that the willingness of CDU and FDP to even use AfD votes is honored by Thuringian voters by likely hafting the seats of the CDU and costing all seats of the FDP. So they really don't want new elections. But they still don't want to support a gouvernment they promised to end. So they try to either delay the new election until the scandal is not that hot anymore or to get the candidate of Die Linke elected without being directly responsible for it.


Other than that, of course Germany has several parties that are far more left than Die Linke. For exampe the Marxist-Leninist-Party of Germany or the Communist party of Germany. Those don't get the votes to get a seat (there is a 5% barrier), but they are legal parties no one complaines about while every party right from the AfD gets forbidden sooner or later and the AfD migh be heading there as well.

Also to be fair, the AfD only shifted that far right only recently. A couple of years ago, they were basically Germans UKIP and not everyone has noticed that drift. And a decade ago Die Linke was less moderate as well. But after decades of actually working with the SPD in gouvernments, pragmatism set in.
 

Terminal Blue

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The thing you have to realise is that the people who actually have political influence, whether they be establishment politicians or media commentators, and whether they present themselves as left wing or right wing, would almost all personally fare better under a far-right government than a moderate left-wing government.

They will wring their hands about the lack of civility in politics and cry about how awful the "rhetoric" has become, but in the end they will still cash their cheques and politely ignore anything they're supposed to.
 

Satinavian

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evilthecat said:
The thing you have to realise is that the people who actually have political influence, whether they be establishment politicians or media commentators, and whether they present themselves as left wing or right wing, would almost all personally fare better under a far-right government than a moderate left-wing government.

They will wring their hands about the lack of civility in politics and cry about how awful the "rhetoric" has become, but in the end they will still cash their cheques and politely ignore anything they're supposed to.
Not really in this case.

Pretty much all media has denounced what happened and Germany wide party leadership of both FDP and CDU pressed instantly for the resignation of the FDP prime minister and are pressing now for new elections even if it will demolish the local party and cost them votes in the second chamber.
 

Agema

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tstorm823 said:
And now there has to be another election where all the moderates are boycotting because the lesson they learned from this is that they're not allowed to win anyway.
The centre-right can't win in Thuringia, because they only have ~35% of the votes. It's perfectly conventional that parties which want to run the place are supposed to be popular enough to do so.

The idea is supposed to be zero tolerance of far right parties, which the CDU and FDP signed up to. I might point out that the FDP and CDU backed down after criticism from their own party, not because the left complained. The line effectively held... this time at least. There was no way they could reasonably govern without the AfD. Then they throw their toys out of the pram and refuse to stand and yes, maybe hand the state to the AfD. Because that's what they'd rather do than let a spectrum of leftist parties run the state, partly by facilely equating a none-extreme left party with an undeniably far right party.

Mostly, it's my prompt for a wider pattern of activity across Europe, and similar things in the USA.

I could add for instance Viktor Orban's demolition of democratic standards in Hungary. The EU has attempted to intervene, but Orban has in large part been protected by other European right-wing parties in the European Parliament. And after Orban, the PiS (another party on the borderline of right and far-right) used Orban's model to do the same in Poland. The Tories in the UK effectively have ended up doing the work of the further fringes of the right as well, because it was more important to them to shut out the centre-left. In the USA, the president all but co-opted swathes of the further / far right and invited some to help him run the show.

When push comes to shove, the mainstream right are remarkably good at sheltering and facilitating the far right.
 

tstorm823

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Satinavian said:
It was obvious that a FDP gouvernment would not get enough votes for any law without being tolerated by AfD which means there was no chance to get a minority gouvernment working without giving the AfD power.
Agema said:
There was no way they could reasonably govern without the AfD. Then they throw their toys out of the pram and refuse to stand and yes, maybe hand the state to the AfD. Because that's what they'd rather do than let a spectrum of leftist parties run the state, partly by facilely equating a none-extreme left party with an undeniably far right party.
I'm admittedly learning as I go on this one. Is the premier somehow beholden to the parties that put them in place? There's the party on the right that just voluntarily put their weight behind someone else, who seems to be an active critic of them. There's the party on the left that seems to be very deliberately trying to widen their reach beyond communists. It doesn't feel like either of those should be expected to act as predictable lock-step voting units all the time. And then the largest third of seats is in between those two. It feels to me like you could get all sorts of things done with handful of either side coming to the middle. Is that not possible? Would the guy who resigned not be able to work with the center-left parties? I don't quite understand how the AfD tossing the reins of power to someone who doesn't like them gives them power. This looks like a mostly symbolic middle finger to me.
 

Satinavian

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tstorm823 said:
I'm admittedly learning as I go on this one. Is the premier somehow beholden to the parties that put them in place?
The prime minister is not actually that powerful a position. Pretty much every important decision needs a majority in parliament. That is why a prime minister tends to need to rely on the same people who voted him or her in.

Would the guy who resigned not be able to work with the center-left parties? I don't quite understand how the AfD tossing the reins of power to someone who doesn't like them gives them power. This looks like a mostly symbolic middle finger to me.
Coalitions between center right and center left are the most common in Germany. But in this case all the moderate parties together don't have enough votes to get any laws passed. So to gouvern, votes from far right or far left are absolutely necessary.
Also the former prime minister from the far left did a good job, his party more votes than last time and the moderate left parties like to work with him and would vastly prefer him to the candidate of the neoliberals.
There has been some noise from Berlin that the federal leadership of conservatives might support a votefor a moderate left candidates but there does not seem to be anyone trying to provide that option.

And make no mistake about party cohesion. It is not that only some AfD people voted for the moderate candidate. All of them did. The AfD candidate hat literally 0 votes. That was just misdirection.